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October 10, 9 PM Weather Forecast

SLIGHT RISK for severe weather tomorrow.....

Posted: Oct 10, 2021 8:10 PM
Updated: Oct 10, 2021 10:27 PM

It was a near/record warm day with highs 84-89 after a few isolated showers & t'showers with secondary warm front passage lastnight-early this morning.  Also, south to south-southwest winds gusted up to 33 mph in the viewing area.

Note the near to record highs from Ontario to Texas today, but the record cool weather in California!

Unfortunately, the Purdue University Airport observation equipment stopped transmitting data around 7 a.m. Sunday morning & did not come back on-line until around 7 p.m. Sunday evening. 

So, unless that data is uncovered, it is unknown how close we came to the record of 88. 

However, our WLFI site & three other main weather stations in Greater Lafayette were 86-87, so we were very close, but likely did not break it.

Highs Sunday:

89  Morocco

87  Fowler...WLFI Ob Site...Attica...Galveston Airport...Flora Municipal Airport

86  Covington...Logansport-Cass County Airport...Winamac...Kentland Municipal Airport...Remington

85  Grissom Air Reserve Base...Kokomo Municipal Airport...Peru Municipal Airport...Delpi

84  Monticello-White County Airport...Rochester-Fulton County Airport...Frankfort Municipal Airport...Crawfordsville

This morning saw record warm low temperatures at 66-70!

Morning Low Sunday:

70  Winamac...Flora Municipal Airport...Kentland Municipal Airport

69  Peru Municipal Airport...West Lafayette-Purdue University Airport...Galveston Airport...Kentland Municipal Airport...Delphi...Covington...Remington

68  Monticello-White County Airport...Grissom Air Reserve Base...Kokomo Municipal Airport...WLFI Ob Site...Attica...Fowler

67  Crawfordsville...Morocco

66  Logansport-Cass County Airport

Highs 84-89 & lows 66-70 are much more typical of July than October 10!

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With the widespread record warmth, there was an outbreak of multiple tornadoes, large hail & winds measured up to 86 mph yesterday Minnesota to South Dakota.

Tonight, outbreak with MODERATE RISK (Level 4 of 5 risk) is underway Oklahoma to Texas with tornadoes, winds +75 mph & large hail expected now through tonight.  The severe weather risk will translate to Missouri & Arkansas by early tomorrow morning.

Here, we are looking at SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 or 5 for severe weather tomorrow afternoon-evening.

0.30-0.80" rainfall amounts are expected with a few isolated +1" amounts.

A couple to several broken lines of storms are expected 4-10 p.m. with line segments & embedded discrete cells posing a risk of a couple to few severe gusts, a couple EF0-EF1 tornadoes & isolated severe hail.

The instability won't be ideal, but the wind fields & shear will make up for that with much of it being unidirectional, except in the lower 1-1.5 miles of the lower atmosphere or troposphere where it will veer from south-southeast to southwest.  This, along with pockets of +300 m2/s2 helicity not only at low-levels, but through the first 3-4 miles of the troposphere, brings about the risk of a couple tornadoes.  Embedded cells that are more discrete may have isolated severe hail.

Otherwise, it a couple to a few severe gusts.

If there was more of an unstable airmass & much cooler aloft, then we'd see upgrade to ENHANCED RISK.  That does not look to be the case at the moment, but we will monitor for changes & the NOAA Storm Prediction Center's official outlooks.

Tuesday & Wednesday look good & continued unseasonably warm.  A few showers & storms are possible Thursday, followed by showers & storms Friday.  Looks like MARGINAL RISK parameters for severe (Level 1 of 5) may be around Thursday &/or Friday.

Want Fall?  It will be more typical of mid-October next weekend.

Monday, radar projection around 2 p.m. to 11 p.m........again, any severe timing here is 4-10 p.m.

High/Low That Morning...Date, Day, Conditions

85/70...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, Humid to Muggy with Storms Possible Afternoon-Evening (65%.....SLIGHT RISK), SSE Wind 20-35 mph.....Record: 86-2010.

79/61...Oct. 12, Tue. AM Patchy to Areas of Fog, Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny & Less Humid, SW to S 10-15 to 5-10 mph......Record: 87-1930.

83/58...Oct. 13, Wed. AM Patchy to Areas of Fog, Partly Cloudy & Becoming Humid, SSE to S Wind 10-20 mph....Record: 87-1975.

83/66...Oct. 14, Thu. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 88 with Few Showers & Storms Possible (35%.....MARGINAL RISK Parameters Possible), S to SSW Wind 15-30 mph.....Record: 88-1897

80/68...Oct. 15, Fri. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy with Showers/Storms Possible (60%.....MARGINAL RISK Parameters), SSE to S 15-25 mph....Record: 86-1963.

64/52...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly to Mostly Cloudy, AM Showers (40%), W to NW Wind 20-40 mph.

63/41...Oct. 17, Sun. Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 10-20 mph.

68/38...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 5-10 mph.

72/44...Oct. 19, Tue. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 5-10 mph.

76/50...Oct. 20, Wed. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 10-20 mph.

82/58...Oct. 21, Thu. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-25 mph...Record: 86-1953.

82/60...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Record: 86-1953.

84/62...Oct. 23, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Record: 85-1953.

68/52...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, W 10-15 mph.

75/43...Oct. 25, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.....Record: 80-1963.

80/59...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, PM Scattered Storms (Early, Preliminary MARGINAL RISK parameters), SW 20-35 mph....Record: 81-1963.

55/47...Oct. 27, Wed. Mostly Cloudy, W 20-30 mph.

57/32...Oct. 28, Thu. Partly Cloudy, N 10 mph.

64/32...Oct. 29, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW 15-25 mph.

Warming back to 70s to 80 October 30-November 3 with strong southwest winds.

Storms possible around November 4-5 period.

Cooler (highs 40s & 50s with lows 20s & 30s) November 6-7 & 9-10.

West Lafayette
Cloudy
56° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 56°
Kokomo
Cloudy
57° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 57°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 52°
Fowler
Cloudy
53° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 53°
Williamsport
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 52°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
54° wxIcon
Hi: 64° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 54°
Frankfort
Cloudy
54° wxIcon
Hi: 64° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 54°
Delphi
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 63° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 52°
Monticello
Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 64° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 52°
Logansport
Cloudy
54° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 54°
More showers, isolated thunder, then nice, Fall-like weekend...
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