October 9, 8 PM Weather Forecast Update

SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 of 5 for severe weather Monday afternoon-evening.

Posted: Oct 9, 2021 7:43 PM
Updated: Oct 10, 2021 1:40 AM

After lows this morning of 57-62 (with areas of dense fog), highs today reached 81-86 with dew points at 62-70.

With partly to mostly cloudy skies, fog will not be an issue like last night tonight, though isolated shower/t'shower possible on the leading edge of a surge of warmer air.  This will be like a second warm front moving through tonight.  Lows will be at record warm levels for overnight lows with 66-70. 

Sunday looks partly cloudy, very warm & humid with highs near record warm levels at 84-89.  Heat indices will run 87-93 with strong south to south-southwest winds 20-35 mph.

Lows Sunday night will be some of the warmest ever record in October with 68-71 with south wind 10-15 mph all night.

There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Monday afternoon-evening for the entire viewing area.

If current trends continue an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK is possible.

It appears a couple broken lines of storms will occur.

Given strong wind fields aloft, steepening lapse rate & slight turn of the winds (rather than complete unidirectional shear) from south-southeast to southwest in the low-levels in warm, unstable airmass, risk includes a couple EF0-EF1 tornadoes, a couple to few severe gusts & isolated severe hail.

Preliminary timing of severe is 5-11 p.m.

Highs will run 84-87 Monday with dew points 68-72, making for an near/record warm & unusually humid to muggy day.

Lows Monday night should run 58-64 with patchy to areas of fog.

Tuesday will be dry with sunshine.  Winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph, then turn to the south at 5-10 mph by late in the day.  Highs of 75-81 are expected with dew points dropping to the 50s to around 60.

After 55-60 Tuesday night with patchy to areas of fog, highs of 76-84 are likely Wednesday with sunshine & dew points rising from the 50s to the mid 60s by later in the day.  So, it will begin to feel humid again with south-southeast to south winds 10-20 mph.

Wednesday night looks near/record warm with lows 64-69 with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Some scattered storms are possible Thursday with potentially MARGINAL RISK for severe & highs in the 80s with south-southwest wind 15-30 mph. 

A round of showers & storms are possible Friday night with MARGINAL RISK parameters showing up after highs 70s to 80s.

High/Low That Morning...Date, Day, Conditions

86/68...Oct. 10, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 91, SW Wind 15-25 mph....Record: 88-1938

86/70...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, Humid to Muggy with Storms Possible Afternoon-Evening (65%.....SLIGHT RISK), SSE Wind 20-35 mph.....Record: 86-2010.

79/61...Oct. 12, Tue. AM Patchy to Areas of Fog, Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny & Less Humid, SW to S 10-15 to 5-10 mph......Record: 87-1930.

84/58...Oct. 13, Wed. AM Patchy to Areas of Fog, Partly Cloudy & Becoming Humid, SSE to S Wind 10-20 mph....Record: 87-1975.

85/66...Oct. 14, Thu. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 91 with Few Storms Possible (35%.....MARGINAL RISK Parameters), S to SSW Wind 15-30 mph.....Record: 88-1897

81/68...Oct. 15, Fri. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy with Showers/Storms Possible Late (60%.....MARGINAL RISK Parameters), SSE to S 15-25 mph....Record: 86-1963.

66/52...Oct. 16, Sat. Mostly Cloudy, AM Showers (40%), W to NW Wind 20-40 mph.

58/40...Oct. 17, Sun. Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 10-20 mph.

68/38...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Sunny, S Wind 5-10 mph.

72/44...Oct. 19, Tue. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 5-10 mph.

76/50...Oct. 20, Wed. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 10-20 mph.

82/58...Oct. 21, Thu. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-25 mph...Record: 86-1953.

82/60...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Record: 86-1953.

84/62...Oct. 23, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Record: 85-1953.

68/52...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, W 10-15 mph.

75/43...Oct. 25, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.....Record: 80-1963.

80/59...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, PM Scattered Storms (Early, Preliminary MARGINAL RISK parameters), SW 20-35 mph....Record: 81-1963.

55/47...Oct. 27, Wed. Mostly Cloudy, W 20-30 mph.

57/32...Oct. 28, Thu. Partly Cloudy, N 10 mph.

64/32...Oct. 29, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW 15-25 mph.

Warming back to 70s to 80 October 30-November 3 with strong southwest winds.

Storms possible around November 4-5 period.

Cooler (highs 40s & 50s with lows 20s & 30s) November 6-7 & 9-10.

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