Dryness extends from the Corn Belt to New England & across southeastern Ontario.
We need 4-8" rainfall over the area to pull us out of the D0-D1 status right now when we have only seen 30-60% of the normal rainfall over much of the area since July 1.
However, the winter still looks wetter than normal, as does the spring with this beginning by mid-November.
Highs today reached 82-87 after 45-50 this morning.
Weekend looks warm & breezy with just some increasing clouds. Other than an isolated shower or two Sunday, we look dry.
SLIGHT RISK of severe is up for Iowa to Minnesota with MARGINAL RISK to nearly northeastern Kansas.
These storms will fire in a very dynamic, sheared environment with the colder pocket overspreading the front & a narrow tongue of low-level moisture Sunday.
The front passes our area later Monday. In a sheared environment with front as a surface lifting mechanism, a few showers & storms will likely pop (30% coverage). However, lack of low-level moisture from the Gulf (it will be gutted by Hurricane Delta) & lack of CAPE (instability or buoyancy) precludes 1) only potential MARGINAL RISK or risk of isolated severe storm & 2) coverage held down to 30%.
It still looks warm event behind the front with 70s Tuesday, Wednesday, then front Thursday morning (nothing more than a couple of isolated showers) will bring cooler air in with some patchy frost potential next Friday & Saturday mornings (lows in the 30s). We should warm up again rapidly ahead of another moisture starved front a week from this weekend.
To give you an idea of the upcoming trends for the second half of October:
Greater Lafayette: AM Low/PM High....Conditions:
Friday, October 16: 37/61....Mostly Sunny
Saturday, October 17: 34/71....Mostly Sunny & Windy
Sunday, October 18: 55/77....Mostly Sunny & Windy
Monday, October 19: 64/81....Partly Cloudy & Windy
Tuesday, October 20: 60 AM/48 Late...AM 30% Showers/Storms...Partly Cloudy & Windy
Wednesday, October 21: 36/58....Mostly Sunny with Diminishing Wind
Thursday, October 22: 32/59....Mostly Sunny
Friday, October 23: 34/65....Mostly Sunny & Breezy
Saturday, October 24: 49/74....Partly Cloudy & Windy
Sunday, October 25: 57/65....30% Showers/T'Showers AM, then Partly Cloudy & Breezy
Monday, October 26 38/64....Mostly Sunny
Tuesday, October 27 37/68....Mostly Sunny
Wednesday, October 28 41/68....Mostly Sunny
Thursday, October 29 41/72....Partly Cloudy, Windy
Friday, October 30 55/72....Mostly Cloudy, 45% Showers/Storms, Windy
Saturday, October 31 48/56....Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sunday, November 1 31/58....Mostly Sunny