This year is bucking the typical trend in climatology which shows even in a warm Fall, you see a period of 30s & 40s by mid October.
We have had yet to see an overnight low drop below 60 since October 2 & we have only had 3 nights below 50. The record lowest number September to October 15 is 6 set in 1931.
Today will be a warm to muggy day with cumulus towers bubbling up into a few scattered showers & t'showers. Highs will reach the 77-83 range.
Areas of fog are expected tonight with near 60 to lower 60s for lows.
A summer-like, humid to muggy weekend is ahead with highs in the 80s, heat indices in the 80s to lower 90s & south to south-southwest breezes. Overnight lows will be especially warm in the mid to upper 60s.
Other than an isolated shower or two Saturday, the weekend looks dry.
At this point, MARGINAL RISK parameters are showing up for Monday (with very warm, humid to muggy highs in the near record warm 85-88 range).
Limiting factor for higher risk mentioning is less than ideal CAPE & warmer temperatures aloft. If it does turn colder aloft & there is more CAPE, then severe risk will go higher (to more SLIGHT paraometers) because as surface low & upper trough lift from Missouri to Wisconsin & Minnesota & a surface cold front is pushed eastward, an 80-mph upper jet streak & very strong +60 mph low-level jet will develop Monday afternoon.
Unidirectional shear through supports a squall line with a wind threat, but the temperatures will need to be less warm aloft. We need to steepen the lapse rate & then up the CAPE as other dynamic & kinematic factors support more severe.
One model, the GFS, is shifting more toward more SLIGHT scenario in its run. We will monitor & await official SPC outlooks.
A few storms are possible Thursday, but they do not show any severe risk at this time.
High/Low That Morning...Date, Day Conditions
84/62...Oct. 9, Sat. AM Areas of Fog...Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower (20%), Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 88, S to SSW Wind 11-24 mph...Record: 88-1997
86/64...Oct. 10, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 91, SW Wind 15-25 mph....Record: 88-1938
86/68...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, Humid to Muggy with Some Sct'd Storms Possible Late Afternoon-Evening (40%.....MARGINAL RISK Parameters), S Wind 20-35 mph.....Record: 86-2010.
84/68...Oct. 12, Tue. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 87, with a Few Isolated Storms (20%) As Front Moves Southward & Falls Apart Over the Area, W 5-15 mph......Record: 87-1930.
85/61...Oct. 13, Wed. AM Patchy Fog, Partly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 90, SE Wind 5-10 mph to SW Wind 15-30 mph.....Record: 87-1975.
87/65...Oct. 14, Thu. Partly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, Heat Index to 91, Few Storms Possible (30%), SW 15-30 mph.....Record: 88-1897
84/64...Oct. 15, Fri. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SW 10-20 mph....Record: 86-1963.
84/70...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid, Scattered Storms (SLIGHT RISK Parameters) Possible, SW Wind 20-30 mph....Record: 86-1938.
62/47...Oct. 17, Sun. Mostly Cloudy, AM Showers (40%), W to NW Wind 20-40 mph.
58/40...Oct. 18, Mon. Partly Cloudy, NW to WNW Wind 20-35 mph.
71/38...Oct. 19, Tue. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 5-10 mph.
75/44...Oct. 20, Wed. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 10-20 mph.
82/58...Oct. 21, Thu. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-25 mph...Record: 86-1953.
82/60...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Record: 86-1953.
84/62...Oct. 23, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-35 mph....Record: 85-1953.
72/52...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, SW 10-15 mph.
77/54...Oct. 25, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.....Record: 80-1963.
80/59...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, PM Scattered Storms (Early, Preliminary MARGINAL RISK parameters), SW 20-35 mph....Record: 81-1963.
55/47...Oct. 27, Wed. Mostly Cloudy, W 20-30 mph.
57/32...Oct. 28, Thu. Partly Cloudy, N 10 mph.
64/32...Oct. 29, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW 15-25 mph.
Warming back to 70s to 80 October 30-November 3 with strong southwest winds.
Storms possible around November 4-5 period.
Cooler (highs 40s & 50s with lows 20s & 30s) November 6-7 & 9-10.