A massive flooding event is underway in the Plains from Manitoba to Mexico. 10 states are under Flood Watches with nearly the entire state of Iowa covered. Heavy rainfall courtesy of the Pacific moisture & hurricanes, typhoon remnants & blocking ridge has led to days & days of rain & more is ahead. Nearly every substantial river system is in flood from Texas to northern Illinois.
Here, we will just be near/record warm today & tomorrow with highs 85-90. I am forecasting 87 today at Greater Lafayette & 86 tomorrow. The records are 91 & 90, respectively, set in 2007. The nights will be near/record warm with lows of 67-72. I am forecast lows of 68 tonight & tomorrow night for Greater Lafayette. The record warmest night-time lows are 67 set in 1939 & 1904 for tomorrow & Wednesday mornings. Records go back to late 1879.
Showers & storms are likely Wednesday. If we can get a break with some sun in the afternoon (between showers & storms), The squall line that develops with the cold front may end up with some severe weather. Wind would be the main threat.
At this point, it appears that cloudy, wet weather ahead of it may hamper instability so much as to greatly limit severe risk. Given the wind profiles, if some sun & buoyancy can come to fruition, then some severe weather risk may occur.
Regardless, locally heavy rainfall is possible.
Given the MJO phase & the extremely balmy water in the Gulf I think Tropical Storm Michael could become a surprise MAJOR hurricane. This intensification would occur very rapidly. There is a window for this to occur where it peaks at Category 4. Could happen. Regardless, at least a 2 will occur.
The flooding rains of the hurricane will head for the Carolinas, unfortunately. They are still recoving from the multi-billion dollar Florence disaster.
So, note our Wednesday rainfall, the Plains flood, Hurricane Michael & the early-season Rockies/Plains snowstorm to blizzard & the complete breakdown of the southeastern/eastern U.S. subtropical hot ridge as the pattern completely breaks.
Also note the the Arctic high setting up over the area by late week & the Hurricane Sergio racing toward a Baja California landfall.
The last time we had such big floods in the Southwest from these multiple Pacific hurricanes in that area was the late 1970s.
The remnants of Hurricane Sergio, along with a cold front, will bring a cold rain here Saturday night with 40s (after in the 50s to 60 Thursday & 50s Friday & Saturday). At first it looked like Friday night, but the pattern looks less progressive in regards to that rain at the moment.
Another Arctic high will then dive back southward, re enforcing the cold. Note the snowflakes as far south as southeast Indiana October 15! A mix of lake effect rain & snow showers are likely, which may skim by our northeastern counties.
I doubt we will even make it to 50 Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Frost & freezing is possible Friday night, then Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday nights of next week (20s & 30s).