October 7, 5:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest outlook to November based on today's model ensemble & analog data.

Posted: Oct 7, 2019 3:08 PM
Updated: Oct 7, 2019 6:37 PM

Lows today ran 43-50, while highs today reached 69-74.

We are headed for 37-45 tonight (with some patchy fog), followed by 67-72 Tuesday with wall-to-wall sunshine.  This big temperature drop will occur due to very dry air in place (with dew points 30-38) as of this late afternoon. 

Clouds will increase Wednesday with 70-75 with 52-56 Wednesday night.

A few isolated showers are possible Thursday with clouds/sun, breezy (from the south-southeast to the south) & warm, but not humid conditions.  Dew points should stay in the 53-58 range.

Storm Prediction Center has SLIGHT RISK up or 15% severe probs up for Thursday well southwest of our area.

SLIGHT RISK will likely be expanded northeastward some with time.

As for us, it appears that the overlay of the best dynamics, forcing & moisture will occur west of our area.

Nonetheless, a narrow line of heavy rainfall/storms will likely embed itself in the band of rainfall or at the leading edge of the rain band.  This line will occur with the actual cold front.

Given the sharp drop in heights & air pressure & good convergence with the front, even with a lack of good moisture or much CAPE, as least a gusty line of rainfall will pass.

If some buoyancy develops enough (CAPE), then a few isolated severe gusts may make it to the surface here Friday.

If the surface high was not placed so far to the west on the Gulf Coast, we'd have a better influx of CAPE.  Also, if the best wind fields were not displaced just northwest & west of our area, we would have better severe risk at this time.

We will monitor.  0.50-1" rainfall is possible.

Note the razor-sharp cold front Friday with sharp delineation between above & below normal temperatures around midday:

Significant snow & wind, followed by near/record cold is possible Colorado to Minnesota & Manitoba late week-weekend.

Storm could bomb over Minnesota with a 25 mb pressure drop in 24 hours.  It is possible.  Even if it does not meet the criteria, it will still be a strong, unseasonably cold, snowy, early Autumn storm.

Much cooler, breezy to windy weather will dominate the weekend with freezing possible for parts of the viewing area.  Monday looks to have the most cloudiness of the the Saturday-Monday period right now.

Monday also looks to have less of the wind that Saturday & Sunday will have, but it will still be cool.

Looks like the coldest weather since April 21.

After cold weather next week, a surge of warmth will arrive on strong south winds mid-month period near October 18-20.

It looks like another sharp cold front & strong storm system.

Once again, the difference between well-above & well-below normal temperatures will cut the nation in half.

Severe weather is possible Iowa to Texas with storm system & sharp cold front.

Our severe risk will be determined by how much moisture & CAPE can get in here after such an intrusion of cold, dry, stable air. It will be harder to erode with eastward extent. The return flow will be much more pronounced in the Plains & west of our area in the Corn Belt.

We will monitor.

0.50-1" of rainfall is possible.

Brief shot of cold with freezing should follow.

Above normal temperatures will tend to dominate late, late October & well into November.

Looks like it will turn wetter than normal & stormy at times.  Some severe risk could develop a time or two, specifically around November 5-6 & in the November 10-15 period.

Much colder weather should arrive for latter November.  Some very minor snowfall is possible.

Milder start to December should go into colder than normal pattern by late December.  The first substantial snows will likely not get into a good chunk of the area until December 27 & afterward.

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