After highs of 72-78 Monday, morning lows of only 62-64 Tuesday & highs 72-80 Tuesday, we are 67-76 as of 2 p.m. Highs today should run 71-77.
Some scattered showers are approaching from the southeast.
The upper low has been wobbling around for days with no where to go. Note how the upper ridging north, northeast & east of our area is blocking it & locking it in.
Eventually a Fall storm diving into the West will give it the boot & it will quickly accelerate northeastward away from us Friday night-Saturday.
For now, a few breaks in the clouds are possible today as a couple spokes of some scattered showers & an isolated t'shower or two arrive this afternoon-evening.
Substantial band of showers & isolated t'storm or two will pass tonight.
Showers Thursday morning will give way to period of sun with some dry time. This will destablize things & a couple bands of showers & t'storms will develop & pivot north & northeastward.
It is possible that a couple isolated severe storms may develop if enough instability can occur with the right amount of sunshine. Threat would be:
1. Isolated, brief EF0 tornado (with vorticity maximum pivoting around the upper low & wind shift from SE & SSE to SW between 850 & 700 mb, low cloud bases & CAPE concentrated for stretch of updraft near surface with some sunshine)
2. .....&/or brief severe gust (in pockets of potential CAPE or buoyancy to 1000 J/kg).....
3. .....as well as isolated hailer: sub-severe to 1" in diameter (hail mentioned due to 700 mb temperature falling to 32F as upper low's cooler air aloft arrives).
SPC may put a MARGINAL RISK over part of the area southward to Kentucky in their Convective Outlook update tonight.
These will diminish by 1 a.m. Thursday night or early, early Friday morning.
Fog does not look to be an issue tonight, but patchy to areas of fog look favorable tomorrow night to early Friday morning.
Upper low, after being around for 7 days, will get the boot by Friday night but not before producing a few more showers & t'showers Friday as the sun appears & clouds bubble up again.
Over this 7-day period it will have moved in a complete circle from Missouri to Michigan back to Indiana to Tennessee & then back to Missouri to Illinois & Indiana, then back to Michigan as unseasonably upper ridge with record warmth blocks it in.
Warmth is the other big weather story with "Endless Summer" continuing.
The northernmost 100 ever recorded so late in the year occurred in North Dakota recently & the latest 80s & 90s so late in the year will occur over Canada & the Northern U.S. now & through the next week.
The hot days are noteworthy, but the very warm, humid to muggy nights (& the persistance & widespread nature of these conditions) are especially noteworthy.
Summer weather dominates east of the Rockies through mid-October.
After this blocked upper low's rainfall, we should dry out & a corridor of severe weather risk & above normal rainfall should occur in the Plains.
It will cool down behind a cold front (with potential burst of SLIGHT RISK for severe mid-month) with frost after October 15.
However, we should warm back up quickly & run above normal end of October to early November.
Late-season 80 may occur yet once again this year after seeing one of the latest occurrences on record last year.
Trend is below normal rainfall.
Meanwhile, as we have seen since August, unusually cold weather will occur in Alaska.
Thoughts continue to be that as the brutal cold builds over Alaskan & Siberian snowpack, a burst of cold will finally be dislodged & we will go from "Endless Summer" & "Endless Fall" to very cold, snowy weather to start December.
It will be like a punch in the gut. With potentially some Fall foliage lingering to late November with the warmth, all of the sudden, we are looking at January-type weather then with possible Polar Vortex-type episode in December.
High/Low That Morning...Date, Day Conditions
73/62...Oct. 6, Wed. Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy with PM Scattered Showers (40%), E Wind 8-15 mph.
77/64...Oct. 7, Thu. Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers & Storms (45%), SSE 10-15 mph.
81/64...Oct. 8, Fri. Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a Few Sct'd Showers & T'Showers (30%), SW Wind 10-15 mph...Record: 90-2007
83/63...Oct. 9, Sat. Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower (20%), Humid, SW Wind 10-15 mph Increasing to 20-30 mph...Record: 88-1997
85/66...Oct. 10, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower (20%), Humid to Muggy, SW Wind 25-35 mph....Record: 88-1938
86/68...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, Humid to Muggy, S Wind 20-35 mph.....Record: 86-2010.
84/64...Oct. 12, Tue. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy with a Few Storms Possible (30%) As Front Moves Southward & Falls Apart Over the Area, SW 10-20 mph......Record: 87-1930.
86/62...Oct. 13, Wed. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SE Wind 5-10 mph to SW Wind 15-30 mph.....Record: 87-1975.
87/65...Oct. 14, Thu. Partly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, SSW 15-30 mph.....Record: 88-1897
87/67...Oct. 15, Fri. Partly Cloudy & Humid to Muggy, SW 10-20 mph....Record: 86-1963.
84/70...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid, PM Storms (SLIGHT RISK Parameters) Possible, SW Wind 20-30 mph....Record: 86-1938.
65F/46...Oct. 17, Sun. Mostly Cloudy, AM Showers (40%), Falling Temperatures from 66 Early to Mid 50s by Afternoon & 40s by Evening, W to NW Wind 20-40 mph.
57/41...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 20-35 mph.
62/36...Oct. 19, Tue. Partly Cloudy, E Wind 5-10 mph.
70/41...Oct. 20, Wed. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 10-20 mph.
80/57...Oct. 21, Thu. Partly Cloudy, Few PM Storms Possible (30%) with MARGINAL RISK Parameters...Record: 86-1953
71/50...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, W Wind 20-35 mph.
62/52...Oct. 23, Sat. Mostly Cloudy, NE Wind 10-15 mph.
72/39...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, SW 10-15 mph.
77/54...Oct. 25, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.....Record: 80-1963.
80/59...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, PM Scattered Storms (Early, Preliminary MARGINAL RISK parameters), SW 20-35 mph....Record: 81-1963.
55/47...Oct. 27, Wed. Mostly Cloudy, W 20-30 mph.
57/32...Oct. 28, Thu. Partly Cloudy, N 10 mph.
64/32...Oct. 29, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW 15-25 mph.
Warming back to 70s to 80 October 30-November 3 with strong southwest winds.
Storms possible around November 4-6 period.