After lows in the warm 60s this morning, highs today reached 70-77 with humid to muggy dew points of 65-70.
A couple waves of showers & storms will pass tonight-Thursday AM, then we get a break & sun begins to appear.
After morning lows in the lower to middle 60s, we should reach the 70s to near 80 by afternoon with that sunshine.
Dew points will run 65-72 resulting in a humid to muggy day with east-southeast winds becoming south-southeast to south.
With that sunshine, cumulus towers should bubble up & a spoke of scattered storms should pop east of the upper low center (which will be over central Illinois).
Current data supports MARGINAL RISK up to Highway 18 for a couple isolated severe storms.
Vorticity max combined with wind shift from southeast at the surface & low levels to southwest at mid-levels, instability increasing due to sunshine (& instability focused near the surface for stretch of rolls produced by the directional shear), low cloud bases with high surface dew points supports mention of the risk of a brief EF0 tornado amidst an overall MARGINAL RISK threat (we will await SPC's official forecast).
Risk of an isolated sub-severe hailer or two (mention due to pocket of temperatures falling to 32 degrees at mid-levels around upper low in the afternoon with a steepening lapse rate).
Risk of an isolated strong to severe gust is possible in areas where a storm encounters best instability & sub-severe hail is maximized with downpour. This water & hail loading could lead to isolated strong to severe gust.
Rainfall totals will be quite variable with some areas seeing 0.10-0.25" tonight-tomorrow, while a few others will see _+0.75
Upper low will finally get the boot & move to southern Michigan.
A few scattered showers & t'showers are possible Friday after morning areas of fog.
Very warm, humid weather will dominate over the weekend with southwest winds 10-25 mph
Cumulus towers will bubble up with an isolated shower or two.
Highs will run in the 80s with lows in the near/record warm low 60s to near 70.
A surface cold front will try to skim through Tuesday before moving back northward as a warm front. A few storms are possible.
The best dynamics for severe storms will be northwest of our area, but we will still monitor for changes.
The front may produce severe weather west & northwest of our area Monday to Monday night.
So......near/record warmth day & night will occur through mid-month for a massive area of the Lower 48 & Canada.
Temperatures will run up to 40 degrees above normal in parts of eastern Canada at times.
The chilly weather will be in the Far West with below to well-below normal temperatures.
Widespread near/record warmth returns as we near Halloween & move into early November.
The above normal temperatures will dominate right to mid-November, as well.
Once we get rid of this upper low, rainfall will tend to run below normal late October to mid-November.
With that, November overall looks drier than normal:
It also looks warmer than normal, perhaps significantly so:
When winter gets here, it will be SUDDEN.
It should get here in very early December with a big punch.
I still am going with a colder & snowier than normal December with potentially a couple of significant cold outbreaks.
However, trends still support big warm-up & thaw after Christmas, lasting through the first half of January.
Late January to mid-February looks colder & snowier than normal.
Warmer & wetter than normal March still looks likely.