October 6, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest low-down given the new data in.

Posted: Oct 6, 2019 9:46 PM
Updated: Oct 6, 2019 10:59 PM

Highs today ran 66-70.

Some showers are possible Sunday overnight to early Monday morning, mainly over the south & southeast.  Up to 0.10" may fall in the southeast.

Then, skies should clear, allowing for a 66-70 day with 36-41 by early Tuesday morning & then 66-70 Tuesday with sunny skies & 38-46 by early Wednesday morning.

Clouds will increase on Wednesday with highs 71-76.

Wind should be northwest overall Monday at 9-16 mph, followed by east wind Tuesday at 6-12 mph.  Winds Wednesday should be southeast at 7-13 mph.

With partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday, highs should run 75-79 with south-southeast winds at 10-15 mph.

They should become south Thursday night at 10-15 mph & then increase to 25-40 mph on Friday from teh south before suddenly turning to the west with passage of cold front Friday afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph.

A few spotty showers/t'showers still look possible Thursday in the PM with 30% coverage.  We will be recycling some of the dry, more stable air from the Southeast, so dew points should only rise into the 53-58 range.

Any instability for thunder or shower development will be elevated & riding up & over the drier, more stable air near the surface (a.k.a boundary layer).

Band of rain should come through Friday.  Gusty line of heavy rainfall with isolated thunder/lightning will likely pass with the actual surface cold front.  Isolated very strong to severe gusts are possible with it.

Surface high in the Southeast is not in a good position for us to get good CAPE & juicy moisture return.  As we recycle some of the more stable air from the high, we may not see much buoyancy Friday as the front passes near midday to afternoon.

However, very sharp temperature & height drop behind front, strong forcing & good convergence along the front along with strong wind fields through the troposphere & bulk shear may promote some of the gusts reaching the surface.  This may equal us getting side-swiped by a MARGINAL RISK of severe.

Better CAPE will support SLIGHT RISK-style parameters to our southwest.  As surface low deepens rapidly over Iowa, ENHANCED RISK parameters appear over parts of Missouri, eastern Kansas, Oklahoma to northern Arkansas for a time.

0.50-1" is likely with the rain as temperatures fall from 65-72 to 50-55 pretty quickly.

By the way, this storm's surface pressure may drop 14 mb in 12 hours & 25 mb in 24 hours (Friday 2 a.m. to Saturday 2 a.m. from 1005 mb to 980 mb from Iowa to Minnesota!).  A meteorological "bomb" would be 24 mb in 24 hours!

This could be a historic early-season blizzard or winter storm for Minnesota with heavy tree damage, howling winds & heavy, wet snow!

Projected IR image of the monster storm!

With sunshine & some clouds, we look quite cool Saturday & Sunday with lows by early Saturday morning of 38-45 & highs 49-56.

Freezing weather is possible for part of the area Saturday, Sunday & Monday nights with lows 29-34.  Daily highs should run in the 50-57 range.

After the chill, we see a very rapid warm-up with temperatures quite a bit above normal.

With that, strong storm system looks to bring rain/storms as we near October 18-20.

ENHANCED RISK parameters show up in Oklahoma, Missouri to northern & central Arkansas with SLIGHT-style to Illinois.

We will monitor here, as isolated severe risk may develop.  What may preclude higher risk is lack of the best moisture & CAPE return up into our area due to the strong, strong Canadian high from days prior.

However, environment will be dynamics & sheared, so it wouldn't take a lot of CAPE to get some severe risk up.

We will monitor.

Nonetheless, 0.50-1" rainfall could fall from this system with strong winds ahead & following it up to 40 mph.

Widespread freezing should follow with 20s with highs in the 40s & 50s.

Warmer than normal East, colder than normal West late, late October through early November overall.

Looks wetter than normal Texas to eastern Kansas, Indiana, Iowa with stormy weather off & on.

Severe risk possible November 5-6 & in the November 10-15 period.

West Lafayette
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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