We have seen a big temperature swing from the lows of 28-36 Monday morning & the highs 61-67 Monday afternoon......
........to the highs of 73-80 today!
We look dry, breezy to windy & warm through next Monday (except lack of any wind on Thursday) with low dew points & expanding drought conditions over the area leading to elevated field, grassland & brush fire risk.
Meanwhile, Major Hurricane Delta should make landfall as a potentiall catastrophic storm in Louisiana Friday night-Saturday with a massive storm surge. The exact track will determine how bad New Orleans is inundated. Even if it weakens slightly to a 3 or low-end 4, it will have a high-end 4- or 5-type surge.
It will bring cloudiness in our area Saturday to Sunday, but it appears the farther north the rainfall from it will get is southern Indiana. We will watch it, however.
If it tracks just a hair more to the northwest, then our forecast could change for Saturday night-Sunday with some rainfall getting in here with cooler temperatures.
High/lows for the viewing area & (Greater Lafayette)
Wednesday AM/Wednesday: 53-57/78-84 (57/81)
Thursday AM/Thursday: 43-50/73-80 (47/76)
Friday AM/Friday: 45-50/81-86 (47/83)
Saturday AM/Saturday: 54-61/78-82 (60/80)
Sunday AM/Sunday: 58-64/76-81 (61/78)
Looks like SLIGHT RISK parameters Minnesota to Oklahoma Monday with system moving into our area late Tuesday. This will occur with a tongue of rich low-level moisture in the Plains, where Delta will have less effect gutting the higher dew points & CAPE.
Negatively-tilted with much shear & strong wind fields & dynamics, it is conducive to severe weather here. However, there is a fly in the ointment. That would be the fact that Hurricane Delta scouring or gutting of the rich low-level moisture & best CAPE farther eastward.
So, low-level moisture & ML CAPE looks to be an issue. Nonetheless, other factors still point us in the direction isolated severe storms or MARGINAL RISK for severe weather at the moment.
After a warm, windy Tuesday of 80s, it appears that we should cool dramatically Wednesday to 60 to the 60s with strong west to northwest winds to 40 mph.
Thing is, this will be bring. A monster storm & trough in the Far West U.S. means ridging returns in our area & another surge of above to well-above normal temperatures of 70s to 80s is expected followed this brief cold snap that may bring one night of patchy frost. We should go from 30s back to the 70s very quickly.
Monday AM/Monday: 55-60/79-84 (58/80)
Next Tuesday AM/Tuesday: 61-66/80-86 (65/83)
Next Wednesday AM/Wednesday: 48-56/61-67 (54/65)
Next Thursday AM/Thursday: 36-42/61-65 (41/64)
Next Friday AM/Friday: 34-38/67-73 (36/72)
Temperatures average above normal after October 18 to the end of October.
Cooler temperatures (compared to normal) should reside along the Gulf Coast & Deep South & perhaps as far north as the Carolinas.
Our rainfall looks below normal here with above normal rainfall in that Deep South to Mid-Atlantic with potential additional tropical development.
The first half of November looks warmer than normal here.
The Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies will likely end up colder than normal.
After dryness, rainfall will begin to go above normal in November, mainly after November 10. This will begin the above normal precipitation from the winter months through spring.
This uptick in rainfall coincides with change towards a more active pattern after November 5.
A deep trough in the West translates to the Plains, putting us in the path of best lift with multiple strong upper jet streaks pivoting base of upper trough over our area.
Given the potential of +500 J/kg ML CAPE in this zone & multiple strong storm systems pivoting through base of the trough, it all spells conditions favorable for storms (some severe) in the Midwest/Corn Belt to Lower Ohio Valley region (our area included).
This overall pattern may continue for a couple of weeks in November with bouts of storms with some heavy rainfall multiple bouts with some severe weather risk of varying degrees.
December looks warmer than normal overall in the eastern U.S., but colder to much colder than normal over the northwestern U.S.
The northwestern U.S. looks very snowy with very heavy, flooding rains in the lower elevations. The northern tier looks snowier than normal, but the eastern Corn Belt & Ohio Valley look wetter than normal with generally below normal snowfall.
California to Texas & Oklahoma to Florida to the Carolinas look drier than normal with worsening drought conditions & also expanding drought.