October 14, 12:15 AM Weather Forecast Update

Freezing, 70s, storms, strong winds......all in the next 7 days....

Posted: Oct 13, 2019 10:44 PM
Updated: Oct 14, 2019 12:16 AM

After lows of 35-43 Sunday morning & highs 61-67 Sunday afternoon (with lots of wind & some cloudiness.....largely north half & later in the day), lows early this morning will run 31-36 with some frost.

A few to some patches of high & mid cloudiness may increase Monday with lots of sunshine. 

With winds west to west-southwest at 10-15 mph, highs should run 54-60.  Monday night lows of 38-45 are likely as wind decreases to 2-5 mph & shifts to the east, then southeast.

Clouds will increase Thursday with some spotty showers/t'showers Tuesday-Tuesday night.  Coverage should average 35-40%.

Highs of 64-70 are likely with south to southwest winds at 15-30 mph.

Rainfall totals will run less than 0.25" & a few areas will only see a trace-0.02".

Wednesday should feature low clouds (mostly cloudy to cloudy) spilling in from the northwest with strong northwest wind & highs only 47-52. This, after a few lingering showers/patchy drizzle in the morning with lows 40-45.

Widespread freezing & frost is possible Wednesday night with lows 28-32 (as long as we clear out all of the low clouds, which continues to look like the case........the winds look to diminish, as well.). If the low clouds hang on longer, however, it will not get as cold for part of the area.

Thursday looks good with 56-61 with lots of sunshine & 40-45 Thursday night as clouds increase.

Highs of 69-73 are likely Friday with strong south-southwest wind & partly cloudy skies as front that passed Tuesday night moves back north of our area as a warm front. 

It does appear that a few scattered showers & storms will occur at times Friday night through Saturday as front tries to sink back southward.

I cut overall coverage for the period from 50% back to 40%, however.

Right now, it appears a few pops are possible at any time Friday 11 p.m. to Saturday 11 p.m. with no clear best time period for better coverage.

I would think, however, that on plume of greater warm & dew point advection with low-level jet in the overnight-morning & then heating & subtle shortwave in the late afternoon-evening would seem to be the best triggers.  Therefore, thoughts are that these times favor the 40% coverage.

Elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg & good shear supports an isolated sub-severe hailer, but no severe weather.

It will be a windy (south-southwest wind 15-30 mph), warm day, nonetheless, with clouds/some sunshine & highs in the 70s.

Friday night looks warm with a low only at 59-63.

Note how some showers/storms fire Saturday overnight-early Sunday morning on front as low-level jet strengthens & noses into central Illinois with lows here only 62-66.

This round of showers & storms should move northeastward & pass through our area Sunday morning.  An isolated sub-severe hailer is possible, though no severe weather is currently expected.

The rain should shut off Sunday midday-afternoon with some sun appearing & temperatures surging into the 70s with dew points rising into the rather muggy mid 60s.  Winds will be strong from the south-southwest at 15-30 mph.

New showers/storms should form in Illinois & move east & northeastward & move & pass through our area Sunday evening-overnight.

Current projected parameters for that period support period of MARGINAL RISK to potentially SLIGHT RISK for part of our area.

U.S. GFS model has main surface cold front & upper trough passes through mid-morning Monday with more rain & some storms.

It then breaks the clouds a bit late morning, but has low, dreary stratus pivoting in during the afternoon with strong northwest winds 20-30 mph & falling temperatures from 65-70 early- to mid-morning to 47-52 by early afternoon.

However, Canadian model's overall trend is much slower with the front.

In fact, it has a very nice heat-up around Monday with 70s to 80 (dew points muggy at 66-69) with higher severe risk with potential line of storms (after showers/storms Sunday night-Monday AM) Monday evening or night.

We will monitor to try to pin down the best timing & any sort of severe risk, but I side more with the GFS than the Canadian GEM.  It seems to be having some initialization issues recently & just seems "off" from what the actual atmosphere shows & analogs show.

Analog data (looking at similar situations at similar times of year) shows some increased tornado risk in other times with such a set-up in the models & in reality.

Analog also shows good probability of a total of +1" of rainfall here.

I do think 1-2" of total rainfall is likely Friday night-Monday morning.

It will definitely get much colder following the system with likely widespread 20s with heavy frost with daytime highs in the 40s & 50s.

Analog continues to show high likelihood of below normal temperatures after this warm surge.

Model data trends show it as well.

Warmth will begin to spread back eastward with above normal temperatures back rather quickly by October 29.

Thoughts center on an overall above normal temperature trend around Halloween & through early November.  Though there may be some temperature fluctuation, the consensus is warmer & wetter than normal.

Looks like an active, strong jet stream with blocking southeastern ridging.

This means very cold weather with snows in the West & Plains & unusually warm weather in the Southeast & us being in-between the two.

The most climatologically-favored periods for storms & any sort of severe risk tends to fall in the November 5-6 & November 10-15 periods.

I still think we may turn quite cold after mid-November (with below normal precipitation) before early December turns milder (with below normal precipitation).

Some very minor snowfall is possible after mid-November, but analog data back 120 years suggests the first good, shoveling snow not until just after Christmas.  This used a blend of similar years with varying influences or dominant players on the court.

Think of it as numerically ranking the 2019-20 Purdue basketball teams record up to say January 1.  Lets say all of my stats, team's talent, speed, agility, average height, average height for each position all resemble the 1989-90 Gene Keady team.  Then, I take the opponents they will take on & see how they rank in the past with previous teams of their school & how Purdue performed with them (if they played them) in the 89-90 season.  1989-90 Boilers were 22-8 with a Second Round appearance in the NCAA Tournament. 

That is what this is doing to see how the record may unfold based on the past.

Just some of the stats from the 1989-90 season as an example of weather data you might analyze mathematically for analog.

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Increasing Rain Chances this Afternoon-Early Evening.
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