October 5, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update for now to November 11.

Posted: Oct 5, 2020 4:15 PM
Updated: Oct 5, 2020 5:03 PM

Lows this morning ran 28-36 with areas of fog & frosty conditions.

It will be a warm week with temperatures climbing to the 70s & even some lower 80s.

Nights will be cool in the 40s & 50s.

Breezy with windy conditions at times, with very low dew points in the 30s to 40s, will result in elevated brush, grass & field fire risk.  Tuesday through Friday will feature risk, but Wednesday & Thursday shows the highest risk at the moment.

The only clouds of any conswquence would be a brief band of cloudiness pass through late tonight to very early Tuesday morning as Alberta Clipper system tracks northeast of our area.

Meanwhile, trend continues to shift the Hurricane Delta track farther west from Florida.

Most data continues to keep it south & southeast of our area with just from high & mid clouds reaching our area from it on Saturday.

Warm to very warm, windy weather will dominate early next week with storm system in the West eventually bring some scattered showers & storms.

SLIGHT RISK parameters for severe weather show up from Minnesota to Oklahoma.

We will monitor to see if we can get enough low-level moisture & CAPE to produce any severe weather here.  It looks as if the main dynamics for severe may track west & northwest of our area, as well.  So, we will watch it, but at least right now, MARGINAL RISK would be the highest risk attainable for our area. 

Further updates down the road will determine revisions to this forecast.

The warmth is impressive for now to October 18 with lots of 80s possible.

Behind this system, we may see a brief cool shot near October 18 or 19 with one night of frost.  However, warmth should follow.  It also looks quite dry with increasing brush, grassland & field fire risk.

Even the end of October (21-31) looks quite warm & dry for the area (think everything looks good on this CFSV2 temperature projection, except the Intermountain West & Great Basin from Utah & Nevada to Idaho, Washington & Oregon.....I think that area will see below normal temperatures).

We may get a few to some scattered showers & storms into the area around October 30-31 time frame, it appears.  Unless something changes, only around October 23-24 shows any promise for any even isolated rainfall until 30-31.

Trend is for above normal temperatures in the first 8 days of November, overall.

The Southeast looks cooler due to heavy rainfall possible from Florida to Georgia, courtesy of the tropics.  We may very well have a tropical storm in that area.

There are signs of some severe weather risk Iowa to Texas around November 5-6 & some of that risk may sneak in around November 7 into our area with windy, warm conditions & temperatures in the 70s.

This seems to be the best opportunity for rainfall & severe weather up to November 11 right now as +110 mph upper jet streak is projected to scream through California, then round the bend over Missouri to Illinois & Indiana, leading to very strong wind fields & shear over the region.  A tongue of 800-1500 ML CAPE ahead of the storm system is projected to move northward into Iowa to Texas, then Illinois, Indiana to Mississippi with +60 mph low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico.  Speed shear & front paralell to wind fields at all levels supports QLCS with mainly a wind threat.  If the QLCS becomes only slightly more oriented east of north, then mesocirculations in the line for tornadoes would become more likely, since it will be a bit more perpendicular to the strong flow from the Gulf of Mexico.

It is a good set up for a cool-season severe weather episode with SLIGHT to ENHANCED parameters over a large area for that period first, again, Iowa to Texas, then Indiana to western Tennessee & northern Mississippi.  Shear drops off considerably south & southeast of that area, decreasing any severe risk farther southeast & east from our region of the country.

November 4-15 is a highly-favorable time for cool-season severe weather, (climatologically-speaking) with analog analysis back 120 years in a La Nina, Phase 5 MJO, positive NAO & AO period.

West Lafayette
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Logansport
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Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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