October 5, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Frost & freezing is on the horizon!

Posted: Oct 4, 2019 9:22 PM
Updated: Oct 4, 2019 10:54 PM

We are moving into more typical October-like weather with each day!

After 69-77 for highs yesterday..................

..............we dropped to 42-50 this morning.

Highs today reached 63-68.

A of couple showers may sneaking into our northwestern counties Saturday afternoon, otherwise, looks like a wave of scattered showers & isolated thunder/lightning Saturday evening-night for the rest of the area.  Couple showers may linger into Sunday before it turns dry.

Highs will run 65-70 with lows in the 50s after a cold 38-45 Friday night-Saturday AM.

Total rainfall of a few hundreths to 0.25" is possible Saturday night.  A few isolated +0.25" amounts are possible.

A few showers may return Sunday night-Monday morning with a trace to a 0.10" in places (highest totals in south & southeast).

Looks cool early next week with 35-41 at night.

It warms late week with a few showers Thursday becoming a steady rainfall (with a few storms) late Thursday night-Friday morning before it ends.

Strong dynamic system is looking likely with this system.  Heavy snowfall will likely occur Wyoming & Colorado to Nebraska & the Dakotas to northwestern Minnesota with strong winds.  It may be quite a early-season winter storm!

It appears that strong dynamics, even with a lack of good CAPE, may fuel severe weather from Kansas to Texas to Missouri.

It is possible that a strongly, sheared & dynamically-forced (but rather CAPE-starved) line may race northeastward & bring severe gusts to as close to us as eastern Illinois.

We will monitor.

Exact timing of system is in question, but it looks like a late Thursday night-Friday morning passage, though that may change & be pushed out a hair with time.

Rainfall totals of 0.50-1" are possible.

Temperatures may fall from 60-66 in the morning into the 40s & 50s Friday with a strong northwest wind.

35-40 is possible next Friday night.

Widespread frost & freezing may follow next weekend with 29-34.

Highs may only run in the 50s with a brisk wind.

Then it warms up in a big way mid-month! 80 to the 80s is possible.

However, shot of cold will race in after a few days of warmth with temperatures above normal.

This cold front & upper trough may bring a wave of rain/storms with some severe risk nearby or here (with another snowstorm in the Rockies to Northern Plains.

Much colder, windy weather should rush in behind it with widespread frost with 20s on several nights.

We should warm up rapidly late, late October & into early November with temperatures above normal.

Looks active with multiple rounds of rain & storms with above normal rainfall likely.

Strong upper jet & multiple strong jet streaks in a very loopy pattern means severe risk on multiple occasions for the southern Plains, Southeastern U.S. & even as far north as the Ohio Valley & even into our area.

Timing favors the climatologically-favored periods of November 5-6 & November 10-15.

Fields may become muddy & ponded.

Big change should occur after November 15 with much colder weather with temperatures below normal & more like December-January (with some very minor snows).

We may suddenly flip back mild & begin to dry out in early December for a bit.

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