Some Illinois snow scenes this morning!
Up to 4" was reported in a band from Illinois to southeastern Wisconsin.
Record warmth is underway in the Arctic through the Yukon & Northwest Territories (Inuvik [near Arctic Circle] hit 42), Boston has seen the longest streak of temperatures without dropping below 40 on record now & -45 was recorded this morning in historically-cold airmass in the Rockies.
Denver dropped to 3 this morning. Riverton, Wyoming hit -9 with a wind chill of -20.
Spotty rain/drizzle with fog this evening goes to steady, heavier rainfall tonight.
As winds go light, areas of dense fog may develop, even with the rainfall.
Temperatures will be steady or rise just slighly at 39-47.
Highs 40-47 tomorrow will drop to 30s by afternoon.
Steady rain will go to showers & rain showers will change to rain/snow showers, then all snow showers.
Winds will increase, as well. Gusts of 30 mph may increase to 40-50 mph at times in the evening from northwest to west to southwest.
A few pockets of grassy dustings & whitenings are possible (0.5" or less). However, up to 1" may fall in Newton, Jasper, Pulaski counties.
A couple slick spots are possible on bridges & overpasses Thursday night-early Friday morning.
Freezing line races in from the west & southwest. Southern counties will see the coldest air first & the first flakes mix in as the cold wraps underneath the strong, deepening storm system.
Winds will increase tomorrow with gusts of 25-35, then 30-40 mph & finally some gusts 40-50 mph in the evening with sustained winds at 25-35 mph.
From the rain we have already received to the rain & melted snow we will get tonight-tomorrow, 1-2" of liquid is likely.
Deepening storm will produce sqaull line from Ontario to the the Gulf Coast.
Note the embedded "dog legs", "kidney beans" & LEWPs (S shapes) in the line signaling wind & some isolated tornado risk.
Temperatures may surge to 70 as far north as southern Quebec & Maine tomorrow night to Friday morning!
The amounts of water to squeeze out with this record warmth will be 2-3x normal for the time of year.
Shortwave pivots through Saturday with mostly cloudy skies & a few spotty snow & rain showers.
Winds will be gusty from the southwest, then go west to northwest up to 33 mph.
A couple surges of warmth try to get in next week, but the Arctic air will be fighting to go south. It will try to push in Wednesday, then move back northward, before it attempts to move south next weekend a bit (but it gets pushed back north again after flirting with us).
Warmer surge, strong southwest winds & some scattered showers/storms affect us Tuesday.
Isolated small hail is possible.
CAPE is lacking for severe, despite good dynamics & shear. Cold air this weekend will completely gut our connection to good CAPE.
Showers/some storms are possible with another warm surge late next week (after sudden, sharp cool-down Wednesday).
November 13-15 period shows a pretty significant storm system developing with widespread rainfall & some storms.
Severe weather looks most likely in the Deep South.
Rainfall certainly looks above normal now to mid-November before it goes below normal in latter November (as big surge of Arctic air comes in).