October 30, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is in......let's dig into it.

Posted: Oct 30, 2019 9:28 PM
Updated: Oct 30, 2019 10:41 PM

Thursday is most definitely a no-rake day with rain, increasingly strong winds & then snow showers late.

Friday will be chilly, but bright & a bit breezy.  Good enough to rake.  After the 22-27 low Friday morning low, many leaves will be coming down.

Saturday is an orange due to winds gusting to 33 mph with lots of clouds & a few isolated to spotty quick-passing snow/rain showers.

Halloween looks windy & cold with some scattered snow showers.  Winds may gust 40-50 mph for a while. 

Grass, cartops, rooftops & trees may be dusted or whitened by 0.5" or less of snow in some areas.

However, up to 1" could occur on grassy & elevated surfaces in our northwestern counties (northwest Benton to Newton, Jasper).

Wind will also plaster any snow against the sides of poles, trees, signs, homes & cars.

We will need to monitor to make sure none of the higher totals west of our area make it in here!  Stay tuned.

Watch for a couple/few slick spots Thursday night-early Friday morning on bridges & overpasses as temperatures tank.

Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall, with even an isolated rumble of thunder, returns tonight with fog & a light wind (temperatures steady 38-46).

Rain goes to showers tomorrow with winds cranking up from the northwest, then west, then southwest.

Rain should mix with & then change to snow in the late afternoon & last into the evening before tapering.

As said, winds may gust 40-50 mph at times in parts of the area.

We should drop to 32 in the southwest by late afternoon & the line work northeast & eastward through late afternoon & evening (after highs 38-48).

From the rainfall lastnight through tonight & through tomorrow (to melted snow tomorrow evening), precipitation should amount to 1-2".

Wind:

Extreme temperature anomalies Thursday morning in the Lower 48!

HRRR model snowfall using the Kuchera/AF Method. 

This method is such in the model:

Model:  1) Takes maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT). 2) If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT). 3) If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT). The hourly snowfall is RAT multiplied by the hourly liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall is the sum of all the hourly snow values up the given forecast hour.

This helps to prevent the generic unusable data often generated by generic 10:1 ratios in models.

I also like to use the soil temperature, rate, diurnal timing & a host of other factors to help to pin down snowfall (in addition to analog data from similar events).

I also like to look at the Cobb Method.

The Cobb method algorithm uses:

Vertical velocities, relative humidities, and temperatures from NWP data.  To calculate a surface snow ratio, each layer snow ratio is weighted and summed. Snowfall amount for a time period is the surface snow ratio multiplied by the model QPF & compaction is taken into account.

Snow ends & clouds clear tomorrow night.  Highest winds depart, but gusts of 20-30 mph are still possible early Friday morning.

Lows of 22-27 are likely with wind chills 10-18.

Friday looks mostly sunny & 38-44, followed by 26-32 Friday night.

Windy, clouds, isolated to spotty snow/rain showers are possible Saturday with 37-43.

20s Saturday night should give way to breezy & 45-52 Sunday (& partly cloudy).

Showers, few storms & warmer weather with 50s & 60s arrives early next week with windy weather before some cold air arrives Wednesday, leaves Thursday-Friday, then returns next weekend (highs 37-44).

Warms up, but another surge of Arctic air will be looming, just as we erode away the first one (can see the remnants Louisiana to Pennsylvania).

It is this recycling of the more stable air that will cut severe risk Tuesday-Wednesday morning despite 90- to 100-knot upper jet streak racing through area.

Texas & then eventually parts of the Deep South has the best severe risk, as that is where the airmass will recover CAPE the most.

Warm surges with cold waves duking it out will bring one or two more powerhouse storms to the area with rain, storms & wind in the November 7 to around 15 period.

There is a tremendous burst of cold air to be released around & after mid-November after warm surges.

Here it comes:

There it is with impressive temperature anomalies that spell lows in the single digits here.

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