Watch for areas of dense fog after 12 a.m. tonight with lows warm at 61-65.
Scattered rain will taper, then increase from 20% tomorrow 7-8 am to 45% during the afternoon to early evening with highs 74-78 (with humid dew points of 65-70).
Some patchy fog is possible tomorrow night, but it does not look as dense or as widespread as tonight with lows 61-65.
Now to the overall outlook...........
Band of heaviest rainfall since Saturday morning in the viewing area has been near Veedersburg to northeast of Delphi with solid 1-3".
Elsewhere the rainfall vaires greatly with parts of Benton County only seeing 0.40" & parts of White, Fulton, Pulaski & Montgomery counties only getting 0.25".
So, totals go down as 0.25-3".
That band outperformed what was expected with isolated +1" amounts to a solid 1-3" with a bit more tropical moisture moving northward rather than much of the deep tropical juice staying south of the area.
Cool Fall air looked to make an appearance early this week, then go back warm again, but it still appears that the chill will get bottled up northwest of our area.
Here, upper low will wobble around all week with periodic scattered showers & storms bubbling up daily. Given the high amounts of vorticity with the upper low & unstable airmass with cumulus towers bubbling up daily, a couple to few funnels or even a brief, weak EF0 spin-up could occur this week.
It will be humid to muggy daily with highs 70s to 80 & lows in the 60s. This is well above the normal higher in the upper 60s to around 72 with lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Good leaf color will continue to be delayed. Again, this was part of the Fall forecast & it still looks to be the case with peak fall foliage color as much as 2 weeks later than normal.
There you see the culprit behind the forecast juggerknot.
With the blocking upper ridge expanding more to our east, things cannot move forward & the upper low has not place to go but backward, then stall near the area.
Blocking will bring record heat day & night northwest, north & northeast of our area.
We will still be above to well above normal day & night here, even with showers & thunder around. Night-time lows will run up to 21 degrees above normal.
Upper low tomorrow:
Upper low Tuesday:
Upper low Wednesday:
Eventually the upper low will get the boot, but another 0.50-1.25" rain could fall over the area Monday-Friday with even an isolated shower or two bubbling up with cumulus towers over the weekend (as we heat up with the humid conditions).
Strong upper trough will bring some of the unusual Alaska & Yukon cold southward & bring early-season hard freezes to far northern California & Oregon & Washington, while heavy snow falls across the Great Basin & Rockies.
Denver is looking at their first measurable snowfall of the Fall.
Temperatures may drop to 20 degrees below normal as far south as southern California.
This is looking like potentially the warmest first half (Oct. 1-16) of October on record for us!
Blocking, hot subtropical ridge will bring endless summer with lack of cool days or any chilly nights.
We do not look to fall below 50 at any point before October 17 & most nights will be at or above 60.
We will break the record for the least number of nights below 50 since 1879 with 3 up to October 15.
The record is 6 set in 1931.
Meanwhile, severe weather will still be an issue in the Plains, while the remnants of a Pacific hurricane bring heavy rain & storms to Texas.
We should see storms with SLIGHT RISK parameters around October 17, followed by normal to slightly below normal temperatures before we warm back up again above normal.
When winter hits, its going to hit HARD & SUDDENLY to start December!
So......the next 7 days:
High/Low That Morning...Date, Day Conditions
Near/record warm overnight lows October 11-17.....
85/64...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 10-20 mph.....Record: 86-2010.
86/64...Oct. 12, Tue. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SW 10-20 mph......Record: 87-1930.
88/68...Oct. 13, Wed. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SW Wind 15-30 mph.....Record: 87-1975.
88/68...Oct. 14, Thu. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SSW 15-30 mph.....Record: 88-1897
88/67...Oct. 15, Fri. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SW 10-20 mph....Record: 86-1963.
85/70...Oct. 16, Sat. Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Humid, PM Storms Possible, SW Wind 20-30 mph....Record: 86-1938.
65F/46...Oct. 17, Sun. Mostly Cloudy, AM Showers (40%), Falling Temperatures from 66 Early to Mid 50s by Afternoon & 40s by Evening, W to NW Wind 20-40 mph.
52/41...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 20-35 mph.
56/36...Oct. 19, Tue. Partly Cloudy, NW Wind 5-10 mph.
58/31...Oct. 20, Wed. Sunny, NE Wind 5-10 mph.
64/33...Oct. 21, Thu. Sunny, S Wind 5-15 mph.
74/50...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 20-35 mph.
62/52...Oct. 23, Sat. Mostly Cloudy, NE Wind 10-15 mph.
72/38...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, SW 10-15 mph.
77/54...Oct. 25, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW 15-25 mph.....Record: 80-1963.
80/59...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, PM Scattered Storms (Early, Preliminary MARGINAL RISK parameters), SW 20-35 mph....Record: 81-1963.
55/47...Oct. 27, Wed. Mostly Cloudy, W 20-30 mph.
57/32...Oct. 28, Thu. Partly Cloudy, N 10 mph.
64/32...Oct. 29, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW 15-25 mph.
Warming back to 70s to 80 October 30-November 3 with strong southwest winds.
Storms possible around November 4-6 period.