Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions have improved over a good chunk the viewing area (except the southeast) with recent rainfall.
Rainfall has been prolific in the past 7 day in our northwestern areas (isolated 8" amounts have occurred in the far northwest). Much less has fallen in the southeastern areas.
After 44-48 tonight (with northwest wind 6-13 mph) & then 60-66 tomorrow (with northeast wind 15-25 mph) with clouds/sun, we should drop to 39-45 tomorrow night (with wind becoming wind).
Frenzy looks cool 7-9 p.m. with temperatures in the 58-64 range falling through the 50s. It will be jacket & sweater weather.
A wave of scattered showers & isolated thunder should pass mainly Saturday evening-night to early Sunday AM.
A few showers will make it into our northwestern counties by early afternoon & then they will gradually march east & southeastward.
After a few morning showers Sunday, the afternoon looks good with partly cloudy skies & highs 65-70 after 50-57 in the morning.
Total rainfall of 0.05-0.25" is likely, but there will be a few isolated areas see up to 0.50".
A few showers are possible Monday morning with 48-55, followed by sun/clouds & 59-65.
Lows Monday night may drop to 35-41.
It will be the same thing Tuesday & Tuesday nights.
Wednesday looks warmer with 65-70 with increasing clouds & a southeast wind.
A round of showers & a few storms is possible Thursday PM-Thursday night. Highs should run 70-75.
Much cooler weather should follow with strong Canadian surface high.
First more widespread frost & even freezing is likely late next week to next weekend.
There is the colder weather late next week to next weekend which will go deep into the South.
However, a burst of warm weather is likely for a bit mid-October.
80 to the 80s is possible with strong southwest winds ahead of strong cold front & upper trough.
This could bring widespread snow from Denver & Cheyenne with severe risk in parts of the Plains to Midwest.
It is unclear whether we can get enough CAPE for severe risk here or how well the dynamics will be here, but it has been something to watch. We will continue to monitor.
Time table is near October 20.
Much cooler weather should follow with widespread killing freeze with 25-30 in the October 22-25 period.
Much warmer weather looks to follow with above normal temperature very end of October to early November.
Note the ridging:
Wetter weather will develop with potential of storms at times.....perhaps around November 5-6 & 10-12.
Note the very loop upper flow with very strong upper jet with multiple strong jet streak.
Given the warmth here & the much colder air northwest of here, it looks active here.
It also looks like a lot of snowfall in the West & Northern Plains.
Much colder weather will follow with latter November looking colder than normal with some very minor snow.
Pattern looks to turn much warmer around early December.