October 3, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update: Warmest Start to October Since 2002 & From Cool to Warm to Cold with Storminess In-Between

The first three days of October are now the warmest since 2002 for the viewing area. A cooler Thursday is ahead, but not before some scattered showers/storms........more area ahead, then a big change.

Posted: Oct 3, 2018 9:00 PM
Updated: Oct 3, 2018 10:02 PM

Near/record warmth was widespread today.  Normal high is 68-72!

Winds were also gusty with much of the area seeing gusts at least reach 30 mph with sustained winds at averaging 15-21 mph.

We are in the warmest first three days of October in our viewing area since 2002.  Before that, you have to go back to the Octobers of 1994 & 1995 to find anything comparable to such warmth. 

The difference in temperature between the unusually cold air with snow to the northwest & extreme warmth in our area is very impressive From 20 above normal to 20 below normal.

Daily high temperature anomalies to begin October (data & map courtesy of Oregon State University PRISM Climate Group & Dr. Ryan Maue):

Scattered showers & storms will pass through the area overnight-tomorrow morning.

There is the risk of an isolated severe storm in our northwestern counties (wind/hail) as stronger winds in the troposphere (for storm organization) skim by those areas.

Much cooler, breezy to windy conditions & a decrease in the clouds will follow.

After 85-89 today with heat indices of 88-93, tomorrow's highs will run at just 67-73 (70 Greater Lafayette).

After dropping into the 50s to 60 tomorrow night, (here is a window for a few hours of fog to develop in the night before it is mixed out after 3 a.m. from south to north) clouds will rapidly increase & a round of showers & storms will pass Friday morning to midday.  There is a window for a few hours of fog to develop in the night before it is mixed out after 3 a.m. from south to north.  Drier weather in time for the Friday Night Frenzy football should follow.

Winds will turn back to the south & increase with a late-day rally of highs at 75-83 north to south (80 Greater Lafayette).  The clouds may even break up for some sunshine.

Clouds will increase, then showers & storms will increase Saturday with a peak in coverage in the afternoon-evening (highs 80-85).  It looks humid & windy with gusty south-southwest winds, especially late morning to midday. 

Some of the showers & storms may linger into Saturday night, even Sunday morning.  Sunday afternoon should dry out with some sun, breezy, humid conditions & highs near 80 to as high as 84.

Light green to yellowish area shows where shear, wind fields & instability support the risk of a couple of isolated severe storms Saturday.  We have a window for that Saturday here.

Monday looks partly cloudy, dry, windy, very warm & humid with highs 84-87.  I am forecasting 86 for Greater Lafayette.  The record is 91 set in 2007.

A few isolated storms are possible Tuesday & Wednesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies, windy, warm & humid conditions.  Highs will reach the 80s.

The overnight will be near/record warm with lows at only 66-70 for multiple nights next week.

Multiple rounds of showers & storms are likely next Thursday & Friday.  Although the best severe weather risk will remain west & northwest of us, a MARGINAL RISK cannot be ruled out (isolated severe storms possible).

A total of 2-5" of rainfall is possible NOW TO NEXT THURSDAY.  Good thing is that it will not fall all at once, nor even in a two or three day period. 

Meanwhile, an early autumn blizzard will rage from the Rockies to High Plains with multiple severe weather outbreaks possible Iowa to Texas with flooding rainfall.  Up to 12" of rain may fall now-next Thursday in parts of the Plains.

Blame the blocking on highly-loopy pattern over the Northern Hemisphere from all of the Pacific typhoons & hurricanes & the big ridge over a boiling warm (relatively-speaking) Bering Sea in eastern Siberia & Alaska, a hot subtropical ridge over the boiling water off the East & Southeast Coasts & a big, hot ridge over Greenland.

In the middle, major cold outbreaks SHOULD be driven southward, BUT thank the typhoons & hurricanes & southeastern/eastern ridge from making that happen!

Fall Blizzard of 2018:

Check out the low-level winds in that blizzard & overall MAJOR autumn storm!  It almost takes on the the shape of a hurricane with an eye! 

LOOPY upper air pattern with whole Northern Hemisphere "stopped up" & "blocky".  Think of a really, really curvy road where cars just can't get through well:

Much cooler weather should follow.  We will go from mid & upper 80s with lows in the 60s to 70 to highs in the 40s & 50s with lows in the 20s & 30s, it appears.

Surge of warmth with 70s may not return until late month.

I still think a tropical storm or hurricane may affect the Gulf Coast & our strong cold front may pull up the remnants through the Carolinas.  We will monitor.

45

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 79°
Kokomo
Clear
76° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 76°
Rensselaer
Broken Clouds
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Hi: 78° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 79°
Fowler
Broken Clouds
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Hi: 81° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 79°
Williamsport
Overcast
78° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 81°
Crawfordsville
Broken Clouds
76° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 76°
Frankfort
Clear
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Hi: 80° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 82°
Delphi
Overcast
75° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 75°
Monticello
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Hi: 82° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 75°
Logansport
Clear
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Hi: 80° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 73°
Areas of Patchy Fog Early with Continued Warmth.
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