October 29, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the substantial storm system of rain, wind, thunder, even some snow showers & big temperature drop.

Posted: Oct 29, 2019 1:00 PM
Updated: Oct 29, 2019 2:44 PM

What an extreme October!  You normally get big temperature differences in seasonal changes, but this year has been one for the record books.

After multiple states from Northeast to the Midwest & Southeast saw their all-time highest state temperature for the month of October, we now may have a new Lower 48 national record for the lowest temperature ever recorded in the month of October.  A high-elevation observation site in Utah dropped to -35 a couple of days ago with clear skies & fresh, unusually deep snowpack for the time of year. 

Even in late September, parts of California dropped into the 30s when the normal low was in the 50s, breaking dozens of record lows.

It was also the driest September to early October period on record for many areas of the Southeast & mid-Atlantic, while parts of the Plains were the wettest on record, while the West was the snowiest.

31.6" of snowfall has occurred at Great Falls, Montana in September & October.  The previous record was 18.1" in 1984.

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Today will be a dark, dreary, cold day as temperatures continue to fall with northwest wind increasing to 15-25 mph.

By late afternoon, temperatures should run 37-45 over the area with drizzle coverage decreasing.

Drizzle may begin to increase again this evening, then overnight rain will arrive. 

Temperatures will be cold at 34-40.  It is not out of the question that our northwestern counties see some flakes mix in the rain at the onset.

Rain is likely Wednesday with cold, brisk northeast wind at 15-25 mph.  Highs will only run 39-46.

Wind chills will run in the 20s & 30s.

Severe storms are possible in southern & southeastern Indiana, Ohio to Kentucky with temperatures surging to 66-74.

Rain will become more showery late day to evening with potential of isolated rumble of thunder.

Showers & isolated thunder/lightning are likely tomorrow night with steady temperatures of 39-46 with northeast winds 15-25 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph for a bit.

Rainfall is likely Thursday with east winds 15-30 mph, while heavy snow will occur in Iowa, Illinois, southern Wisconsin to Missouri.  Some places may see +6".

Severe weather is possible Wednesday night-Thursday from far southeastern Indiana & Ohio through Kentucky with warm temperatures in the 60s to 70s.

Rain should taper to showers as temperature begin to tumble Thursday late afternoon from highs of 44-56 west to east (50 Greater Lafayette) to 33-36.

Cold will wrap in from the southwest, so Covington will see the coldest air first.

Scattered rain & snow showers will go to mostly snow showers & flurries in the evening.  Note how the warm air from the relatively warm Lake Michigan water will keep it rain showers in Fulton County, while everyone else is snow flakes.

Strong winds will occur in the evening, mostly likely in the 8 p.m.-4 a.m. time frame.

Gusts exceeding 40 mph are possible at times.  It is unclear whether we will see 45-55 mph & even 60 mph gusts.  Some data suggests those highest winds will occur just northeast of our area toward Detroit, Elkhart, Angola, Toledo & Lima.

Regardless, count on windy conditions with peak gusts reaching at least 40 mph in parts of the viewing area (sustained at 20-35 mph)

It is still not out of the question that some grassy areas, rooftops & car tops get whitened a bit from snow showers Thursday evening-night.  Best chance currently looks to be over our northwestern counties.

Note the heavy snowfall though that models are trending toward Illinois insteady of Iowa & Missouri.  It will be quite close to our area.

We will monitor to make sure that heavier snowfall does not make any more headway eastward!

From now to Thursday night, 1-2" of precipitation (rainfall & any melted snowflakes) is likely.

As surface low continues to rapidly deepen over Lake Huron Thursday evening, line of severe storms will likely develop from Ontario to the Southeast U.S. & sweep New England with damaging straight-line winds.

This looks to be followed by a non-t'storm gradient high wind event with gusts 50-60 mph in some areas.

At 7 a.m. Friday morning, it may hit 70 in parts of Maine with squall line of storms lined up from Vermont to the eastern tip of Long Island.

Montreal, Quebec, Canada may hit 65.

Notice how we are in the 20s!

Friday looks breezy with decreasing clouds & highs 39-45 after 25-28 in the morning (wind chills 10-17).

Shortwave & weak secondary cold front will pass Saturday with skies clouding up & some spotty snow & rain/snow showers.

West-southwest winds will turn to the northwest at 20-33 mph.

Highs will only run 37-44 with wind chills in the 20s & 30s after morning low in the 20s with wind chills in the teens.

Sunday looks mostly sunny with highs 45-51 with west-southwest winds 10-25 mph.

Temperatures may drop to 31-35 Sunday evening, then rise to 37-43 Sunday night with southwest wind increasing to 20-35 mph as skies become partly cloudy.

Winds may gust to 40 mph at times from the south-southwest Monday with highs skyrocketing 58-64 with mostly sunny skies.

We may only drop to 47-54 Monday night with partly cloudy skies (with south-southwest winds 20-30 mph).

Winds may gust from the south-southwest to 40 mph on Tuesday, as well with highs 58-64.  Skies will become cloudy with some scattered showers & a few storms developing.

Note the ML CAPE (may reach 450 J/kg) coming up from the south for some thunder/lightning late Tuesday-Tuesday night.  Since it will be elevated, it will nose up into the mid-levels, closest to the colder temperatures aloft.  If you can get the CAPE, even shallow, to that layer where ice is, then the charge is better for thunder/lightning.

Take a narrow layer of 450 J & keep it at the surface & yes, you may increase your severe gust odds, but you may not get much in the way of thunder & lightning.

A deeper layer of CAPE provides both severe weather & more thunder & lightning.

The charge that develops between that buoyancy & the ice is important to lightning discharge.

As for severe risk, it looks mainly confined southwest & south of our area, but we will monitor.

Cold blast will do a number in preventing better surface CAPE & moisture from getting in here.  So, it may stay elevated & low, resulting in little to no severe risk. 

I only see the risk small hail as a factor right now for our area.

Milder weather will be here next week with off/on showers & some storms, but Arctic air will be looming!

Severe weather risk (in varying degrees) may run Texas & Oklahoma to Maryland & Delaware November 13-15.

Risk may reach Indiana & we will see if it gets to our area.  MARGINAL RISK could make it in here if the continued trends hold.

Arctic air should get discharged near & after the mid-point of November.

Arctic high moves in & dominates after rainfall/storms with strong cold front around November 13-15.

I still wouldn't rule out a little very minor (1" or less) snowfall in latter half of November a couple/few times.

Analog all points to warm surge at the very end of November to early December.

This may very well occur with this big storm that brings blizzard from Colorado to the Plains.

It will likely bring us warm 50s/60s rains (even a few storms) with strong southerly winds.

Analysis suggests Deep South (from southeast Texas to southern Georgia) severe weather event or even outbreak with this storm.

Note trough West & ridge building East.

Below norma temperatures develop in the West....above normal temperatures build in the East.

I do think we will see a situation like this after the mid-point of December after a nice, wet, mild stretch of above normal temperatures dominating........

Mild upper ridge should expand into British Columbia & the Arctic air dislodged.

This should lay the cold air groundwork for a winter weather event as strong Subtropical & Polar Jets merge in the Plains.

Storm should develop & could bring first substantial snow event of the winter near or just after Christmas.  This would be shoveling snow after the early half of December overall mild, wet spell.

Analog of similar situations & years back to 1895 have a December 27 bulls-eye, but no year is the same.

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