October 29, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Dry weather for a while with one sharp cool-down over the next 14 days. Near/record warmth also ahead & we dig into the upcoming winter, spring & summer 2020-21 once again!

Posted: Oct 29, 2020 2:52 PM
Updated: Oct 29, 2020 9:53 PM

Highs today reached 51-58.

Rainfall varied from trace to +1" last night to today.

Some showers still continue in our far southeast as of 3:30 p.m.

Those will exit & we will see partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with a northeast wind 10-20 mph & lows 33-39.

Friday looks partly cloudy with highs 48-56 & northwest wind 8-15 mph, followed by clearing Friday night with some frost & lows 30-35.

Saturday looks windy & mostly sunny, then becoming partly cloudy with highs 57-63.  South-southeast to south winds may gust to 35 mph.

With partly to mostly cloudy skies, lows will only drop to 42-47 Sunday night.  Halloween evening looks fine, just windy with temperatures in the 50s.

Sunday looks partly to mostly cloudy (north may be cloudy much of the day with stratocumulus/stratus wrapping in from the northwest) behind clipper & strong, but dry cold front. 

Highs of 43-49 are likely with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph.  So, we will blow down considerable fall foliage Saturday & Sunday, pushing us past peak threshold.

It looks as if Sunday night will be the coldest night of the Fall so far with 25-28 for lows with widespread frost.

Monday will be mostly sunny with 48-55 (west-southwest wind 10-20 mph), followed by 30-36 Monday night.

Election Day looks good with mostly sunny skies & highs 61-66 with southwest wind 5-15 mph.

Wednesday through Sunday weather looks great!  With mostly sunny skies, highs will go from 64-71 Wednesday to 67-75 Thursday to 72-78 Friday.  Saturday, November 7 looks like a 73-79 day & Sunday, November 8, a 75-80 day.

Forecast highs vs. record highs at Greater Lafayette:

Tue., November 3....64.....78-1961

Wed., November 4...69....78-2003

Thu., November 5...72.....75-1987

Fri., November 6.....75.....75-1975

Sat., November 7....76.....76-1915

Sun., November 8...77....75-1999

Mon., November 9..76...74-1999 (Potential of QLCS Squall Line with Severe Weather Early to Mid Afternoon)

Tue., November 10..57...73-1999

We may see 68-75 with more severe weather risk near November 15 followed by brief, sharp cool-down.

If we get to say 71 or 72 at Greater Lafayette on the 15 or say the 16, that would not actually break the record.

November 15....75-1971

November 16...74-1931

As La Nina rapidly strengthens, it only increases the current winter forecast confidence.

1.  Wetter than normal here, especially late winter & into spring.

2.  Higher risk of flooding winter (especially late winter) & into spring.

3.  Higher risk of cool-season severe weather events winter through spring.

4.  Most active severe weather winter-spring since 2010-12 period likely.

5.  Higher risk of tornadoes in the spring.

6.  Higher risk of flash drought & derecho next summer.  May end up hotter than this past summer, which would surpass 2012 overall & equal the 1995 & 1999 summer, which were La Ninas.  Good La Nina to derecho correlation in the warm season (Serial) & colder season (Progressive). 

7.  Higher risk of extreme heat/humidity event like 1995, 1999 with upper 90s to 100s & 80s dew points (+115 heat indices) in an instance or two in July or August.

8.  Below the normal snowfall of 17-33" for the area (southwest to northeast).  Forecasting 9-24".

9.  Earlier spring arrival of warmth expected.

10.  Earlier budding of trees & plants expected.

11.  Significant planting delays possible or a highly split season with part of the crop put out in late April & the in a race around the start of June.

12.  Brutally cold, snowy winter in the NW U.S., Northern Rockies, Northern Plains & western Great Lakes.

13.  High avalanche danger in the Cascades & Northern Rockies with historic snowfall possible.

14.  Dry, drought weather California to Texas, through the Deep South, through Florida to the Carolinas.

15.  Much higher wildfire danger in Texas & Florida this winter to early spring.

16.  Much earlier wildfire danger in California in 2021. 

17.  Massive drops in reservoir levels in California with much higher risk of floods in the Pacific Northwest, along with snow risk to sea level.

18.  Another very active hurricane season next year.

Every year is different, but the players on the court of importance include:

1.  Traditional La Nina - main player on the team

2.  MJO - second main player on the team

3.  The Atlantic Horseshoe - third biggest influencer

4.  Overall PNA, PDO pattern in the Pacific & western Atlantic - fourth

5.  Greeland ice configuration - fifth

6.  The bench - Solar uptick, New Zealand Dipole

Projected sea surface temperature anomalies via the ECMWF model through winter:

West Lafayette
Cloudy
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 73°
Kokomo
Cloudy
70° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 70°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
72° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 72°
Fowler
Cloudy
73° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 73°
Williamsport
Cloudy
73° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 73°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
72° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 72°
Frankfort
Cloudy
72° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 72°
Delphi
Cloudy
73° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Cloudy
73° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Cloudy
70° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 70°
Some more needed rainfall with real taste of Fall weather...
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