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October 28, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Let's dig into this active forecast with new data!

Posted: Oct 28, 2019 1:21 PM
Updated: Oct 28, 2019 2:28 PM

After some patchy to areas of dense fog this morning with lows of 36-43, we are now 49-65 over the area. 

Bit of a complicated situation today in some respects...........

It appears there are two cold fronts that will pass.....one currently & one tomorrow morning.........rather than just one cold front tomorrow morning.

This first cold front is new.  It appears that it may have developed & be enhanced by the very dense fog & low cloud deck that developed in Illinois last night & the refridgerator-like cool, moist air associated with it is on the move eastward. 

The wind does NOT shift to the northwest until you get to I-55 in central Illinois.  So, even where it is cool & temperatures are falling in eastern Illinois & over our western counties, the wind is still west-southwest.  Wind is southwest where it is in the 60s in the eastern half of our viewing area.

The first is already moving in & draped just east of US 231 in the area.

Temperatures will continue to fall as it slowly moves eastward.

At the Purdue Airport, we went from 63 at 12:50 p.m. to 55 at 1:27 p.m.

At Fowler, we went from 59 at 12:19 p.m. to 50 as of 1:31 p.m.

Temperatures should level off tonight at 44-51 over the area.

Second cold front WILL bring the wind shift to the northwest later tonight to early tomorrow, then go to north.  A few showers & areas of drizzle are possible tonight & into Tuesday morning-midday.  It looks mostly cloudy to cloudy all night & through tomorrow.

After early highs tomorrow of 48-54, temperatures should fall to 40-45 by late afternoon with north winds 10-20 mph.

Today-tonight (note the snowfall in Missouri, Iowa & Wisconsin to northwest Illinois where 1-4" may accumulate):

Later tonight-tomorrow:

After lows tomorrow night at 33-39, with north to northeast winds 15-25 mph, cold rain should overspread the area Wednesday.

Highs should only run 42-49 northwest to southeast over the area with northeast to east winds at 15-30 mph.

Rain should become more showery & drizzly in the evening as winds decrease to 5-9 mph with some areas of dense fog possible.

Wednesday morning-afternoon:

Wednesday evening:

Projected snowfall accumulations for Wednesday afternoon (after snowfall in western Illinois, should change to rain, but all snow in Nebraska, Kansas & northwest Missouri):

Wind should pick up again in earnest Wednesday night from the northeast to east at 20-30 mph with rain & steady temperatures of 41-49.

On Thursday, storm will likely strengthen rapidly.

It may pull 70 degrees as far north as central Ohio with low 60s potential as far northwest as Muncie, Indiana.  Severe weather risk may run southern Indiana to central Ohio to the Gulf Coast.

This strong storm center will likely track through eastern Indiana & pull warmer air nearly entirely around the center like the last storm.

So, Kokomo may hit 56, Rochester 56, while the southwest hits 47, then falls to 38.  Northwest counties may hit 47, then fall to 41 late.

In Greater Lafayette, we may hit 50, then fall to 40 late.

We will see rain & potential of some isolated thunder/lightning Thursday.

Note the EXTREME temperature gradient on Thursday!

It will be warmer at Burlington, Vermont than Brownsville, Texas!

Temperatures at 2 a.m. early Friday morning are impressive in New England!

Montreal, Quebec, Canada may hit 68 around 7 a.m. Friday morning, while Corpus Christi, Texas drops to 35 & Brownsville, Texas 41.

A nocturnal, widespread damaging wind event from QLCS squall line is possible as surface low deepens to 982 mb.

Ahead & behind the line overall gradient winds of 50-60 mph are possible, as well.

As low deepens to 988 mb, potentially, over Lake Huron, we are looking at strong winds Thursday evening & night.  A period of 45-55 mph gusts (sustained 25-40 mph) are possible in the 8 p.m. to 3 a.m. time frame.

Main rains pull away, but we are looking at some scattered rain/snow showers in the evening, going to some snow showers Thursday night.

Temperatures may eventually drop to the 25-30 range by Friday morning with wind chills to 10-18.

Wind-driven snowstorm may occur from Kansas to Wisconsin (+5" snow for some) & we may see grass whitened by snow showers in our northwestern counties (0.7" or less) with very little to no accumulation elsewhere.

Friday looks dry & chilly with cold northwest winds decreasing to 15-25 mph & highs 43-49, followed by 20-25 Friday night as winds go light to calm & partly to mostly cloudy skies go clear.

Weekend of November 2-3 looks dry & cool with sun & highs generally 46-53 with lows in the 20s.

With southwest winds 30-40 mph Monday, we should skyrocket to 57-63 with sunshine.

Euro model shows another EXTREME temperature gradient next week with us getting in on warmth, but bitter cold in the Rockies & northern to central Plains.

Windy weather with showers & some storms are possible November 5-6 in our area.

The Arctic air will eventually get back in here.  There is some question as to when.  Some data wants to cut any warmth short with Arctic air in here as early as November 7-8.

Others, it is when I have been thinking all along:  as we approach & exit mid-November.

We will monitor.

Just know that there are two substantial warm surges early to near mid-November, then an Arctic Blast with some very minor snowfalls & lows single digits to teens.

Article Comments

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