October 27, 3:30 PM Forecast Update: Wind Advisory Sunday & the Halloween Outlook

Wind Advisory Up for Sunday, Plus the Latest on the Halloween Outlook

Posted: Oct 27, 2018 3:29 PM
Updated: Oct 27, 2018 4:01 PM

It is a mostly cloudy afternoon with a cool north-northwest wind.  There are a couple isolated light showers & sprinkles developing in our north & they are moving southward.

As quickly as any of these low clouds burn off this evening-tonight, high & mid level cloud deck will overspread the area as Alberta Clipper dives southeastward towards us.

It will bring a wave of rainfall & isolated thunder in the morning, followed by some sun, then overcast returns with some scattered showers with isolated thunder.

After 45 early in the morning, highs should soar to 50s to near 60 over much of the area by midday period.

Temperatures should fall back through the 50s to the 40s during the afternoon.

Total rainfall by Sunday night will vary from 0.07" in the far southwest to 0.18" around Greater Lafayette to as much as 0.55" in our northeastern counties.

A Wind Advisory is up for part of the area, per the National Weather Service.  I am thinking the other NWS offices will follow suite with an advisory up for the entire area by early tomorrow morning.

It will be breezy to windy all day with gusts of at least 30 mph at any point, but the strongest winds look to pass in the late afternoon.  Then, widespread gusts of 40 mph are likely with some localized gusts of 48-55 mph.

Monday looks like a good day with less wind, lots of sunshine & mild highs of 58-63 after 30s in the morning.

As for Tuesday, it looks windy & warm with highs 63-67, but clouds will be on the increase.  Showers are likely by Tuesday night with even a couple storms possible.  An area of severe risk may even develop from western Illinois to Missouri on Tuesday.

Rain may taper briefly Wednesday (after a wet morning to near midday), before returning again, which may damper Trick-or-Treating.  This break time is still in question, however.  Even though it looks like the break is afternoon before turning wet again in the evening, this is still subject to change.  A slight deviation by just a few hours would mean all the difference.

Highs Wednesday should reach near 60.

Rainfall is likely Thursday with strong, gusty east to northeast winds at 15-30 mph.  Highs will run near 51, but may fall into the 40s in the afternoon.  Thursday looks rather nasty & wet!

Total rainfall Tuesday night-Thursday night looks to run 0.75-1.50".  Isolated +1.50" are possible.

Friday looks briefly, but sharply, cooler.  Highs will run in the mid 40s with lows in the 20s.  I cannot even rule out a couple sprinkles & snow flurries Friday, along with cold, gusty northwest winds.

However, warm front will come through Saturday with strong southwest winds developing, which will last right into Sunday.  This means much warmer conditions.

Highs will reach the upper 40s to 50s Saturday.  Clouds will increase as the warm front approaches & passes Saturday, but it currently looks dry.  There may be some showers & a few storms with the front in central & northern Illinois.

Strong, warm south to southwest winds dominate November 2, then right through the 6th with highs warming to the 60s.

A strong storm system is due through during the afternoon-evening of November 6 with a line/band of rain & storms.

The best potential of severe weather with this line/band would be Arkansas to Missouri & western Illinois.  That is where more cold air aloft looks to reside with some heating in the strongly-sheared environment as the storm become negatively-tilted.

Here, buoyancy/CAPE will be on the wane, but there will still be some there.  There will not be as much here due to warmer temperatures aloft.  However, shear will be strong.  At this point, a gusty line/band of rainfall with isolated storms looks likely for our area.  An isolated severe risk could occur on the western fringe of the viewing area, per latest data .  This could change.

This is the MUCAPE or the most unstable CAPE (instability) values through the troposphere underneath the bulk shear values:

CIPS Analog shows that analog data gives 30% change of 70 degree or greater as far north as Covington around this period.

In looking at similar situations (analog), the data wants to paint the corridors of severe weather in the South & over the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast with some severe risk as far west as western Ohio.  I think the severe will be farther west & not have Northeast implications.  That is the way it appears at the moment.

Lafayette
Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Cloudy
38° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 29°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 39° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 34°
Lafayette
Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 42° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 40°
Danville
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 34°
Frankfort
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 32°
Frankfort
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 33°
Monticello
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 22°
Feels Like: 36°
Monticello
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 36°
Logansport
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 34°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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