SEVERE WX : Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

October 27, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

An active, changing week is ahead.

Posted: Oct 27, 2019 7:02 PM
Updated: Oct 27, 2019 9:54 PM

Highs today, with lots of sunshine & decreasing wind, reached 59-64.

Patchy to areas of dense fog are likely tonight with lows 36-43.

You can see the fog develop & then burn off in the Simulated IR Satellite data via the 4 km NAM model:

Cold front is slowing, so it will take some time for the clouds to really increase tomorrow.

Also, front will not pass through until late Monday night-early Tuesday morning with a few showers.

So, we will have time to warm up to 62-66 for highs tomorrow with a south-southwest wind at 10-20 mph.

Winds will increase tomorrow night to 20-35 mph as cold front approaches.  Lows will only drop to 49-54.

A burst of minor accumulating snowfall should impact northwest Missouri to Iowa & Wisconsin.

Some places could see 1-3", mainly on grassy & elevated surfaces.  1" may whiten grassy areas over northwestern Illinois Monday night-Tuesday morning!

After early morning highs of 51-55 Tuesday, temperatures will fall all day with readings of 40-45 possible by mid-afternoon.

Winds looks strong from the northwest up to 35 mph with low, rather dreary stratus/stratocumulus cloud deck rolling in.

The falling temperatures Tuesday:

Low clouds (at least broken) will likely hang on through Tuesday night, all the while high & mid clouds may be increasing above them from the southwest.

Wind should decrease & shift to the north to north-northeast with lows 32-36.

Watch what happens Tuesday evening-night.........rain, t'storms, snow & sleet/freezing rain develop in the Plains. 

Looks more like a November or December storm than October!

It appears that upper disturbance from Canada will indeed merge with deep moisture in the subtropical jet.

The temperature gradient from the Plains & parts of the Midwest to the Southeast & New England is EXTREME Wednesday-Thursday.

Record cold will occur Wyoming to northwestern Texas, while near record warmth will occur New England to the South.

It could be a situation of where it is 65-70 FOR LOWS Thursday night in New England, while far south Texas drops to 40-45.  Parts of the Denver area could drop below zero for the actual air temperature.

Cincinnati & Louisville could hit 70 Wednesday to Thursday morning.

How the mightly southeast ridge will put up a fight to the Arctic air.

In-between, it appears that a powerhouse, windy storm will develop as strong, very cold upper air system in the polar jet merges with very deep Pacific & Gulf moisture.  The storms will be strengthened & enhanced by the very impressive temperature difference over a small area.

Severe weather could occur as far north as Louisville & Cincinnati through central Pennsylvania to Vermont & New Hampshire.  Other severe weather will occur in eastern Texas & through the South.

Watch the storm evolve, bringing snow & ice to the Plains & as far southeast as western Illinois.

Meanwhile, periodic, wind-driven cold rain will affect us Wednesday.  Highs currently look to be in the 40s with strong northeast to east wind up to 32 mph.

Then, watch Thursday..........storm may RAPIDLY DEEPEN as it pivots center just southeast of our area.

Thursday looks wet & windy from the east, then northwest (gusts to 35 mph).  Steady rain should become more showery, but highs should only run in the 40s.

Then, as the low deepens, wind may howl in the evening to Thursday night with showers pivoting back in & turning to snow showers as temperatures drop to 30-33.

Our Wednesday-Thursday total rainfall looks to run 0.80-1.70", while the 2-4" amounts stay along & south of the Ohio River.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR:

1.  Non-t'storm, gradient wind gusts 50-60 mph here (sustained at 25-40 mph) Thursday evening IF......IF the low does indeed deepen as much as models suggest.  That risk would tend to be in the 8 p.m.-4 a.m. time frame.

2.  Grass to be whitened with less than 0.8" snow in our northwestern counties with little/no accumulation elsewhere.

3.  It would be in this rapid intensification stage that tornado risk would increase more from Cincinnati, Ohio to Tallahassee, Florida with QLCS squall line (& even some supercells in southeast Alabama to northwest Florida).

4.  Significant snowfall accumulations with highs winds have the potential to occur Kansas through Iowa to Wisconsin.  Even northwestern Illinois may get in on some substantial snowfall accumulations if these trends hold.

Then the cold rushes in with lows in the 20s by Friday morning with lows in the single digits in eastern Iowa over snow pack (as winds decrease there).  With winds gusting to 30 mph still Friday morning, our wind chills may drop to 10.

Highs Friday look to only run at 38-45 with a northwest wind at 15-25 mph with sunshine.

After 20-25 Friday night with a heavy frost & hard freeze, highs next Saturday & Sunday should run 45-50 with sunshine.

Although lows Saturday night may drop to 22-26, lows Sunday night should rise after 3 a.m. (from 30-33 to 35-40) as southwest wind commences.

We may shoot up to 57-62 Monday, November 4 with howling southwest wind up to 40 mph.

The European model matches my analog with this sudden warm surge in early November.

Note the anomalies showing unseasonable, Arctic air in the northern Rockies & the surge of above normal temperatures coming into the southern Plains, Midwest & Southeast.

Again, more temperature EXTREMES that will develop powerhouse storms with high winds, reminiscent of last year.

Even in times we warm, Arctic air will always be looming, ready to plunge in.  Such will be the winter overall, it appears. 

Surges of 24-hour spring with ice jams, rapid snow & ice melt & t'storms, followed by 70-degree temperature drops with flash freezes with 40-60 mph winds.

Article Comments

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