Lows this morning dropped to 37-44, while highs today reached 55-60.
Frost will occur tonight with areas of shallow dense fog, especially in low-lying area & areas around water.
Tomorrow will feature increasing clouds with east to east-southeast wind & 50s to around 60, followed by skies clouding over tomorrow night with lows 46-51.
Our next storm system will move southeastward rather than east & northeastward. This is due to monster storm in the Northeast with potential bomb near Maine coast. Flooding is widespread with damaging winds over the Northeast to Canadian Maritimes.
This will keep the 70s to 80 south of our area & the severe weather over the Plains & then South to Atlantic Coast in a ring around us.
We will get off & on rain Thursday-Friday to early Saturday with highs 50s to around 60 with lows near 52 & mainly east to northeast winds. 0.75-1.40" of total rainfall is expected Thursday-Saturday AM (highest totals currently expected over our southeastern counties). This will just prolong the duration of high rivers & streams & not necessarily make for new crests & make things muddy & ponded yet once again.
Another system comes in Tuesday with period of rain, then cooler weather, followed by 2-3 storms systems passing November 7-10. The one around the 8th looks strong & make track farther north, putting us in the warmer sector with warmer temperatures & some severe weather risk.
Three more systems are possible November 15-22 with perhaps one of those putting us in the warm sector with storm risk. The others look more like just cooler rainfall.
This wet, active pattern is due to Phase 1 MJO, which is a 1) much wetter & 2) warmer than normal phase for our area in October.
It should become more neutral by November 10, but the atmospheric feedback from the phase may continue to as late as November 22 for our area.
So, I am going wetter & warmer than normal OVERALL for now to November. This is the precipitation & temperture mean. There will be some drier & colder spats in-between the wetness & surges of warmth.
This also tends to support & bit higher potential for severe weather in November for the Central & Southern Plains, Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley & Lower Mississippi Valley.
One thing to watch is if all of these developing typhoons in the Pacific turn to a single "bomb" storm in Alaska, which could ultimately greatly disrupt the upper jet. This could send a surge of winter air southward suddenly with sharp temperature drop in early to mid-November. That would alter the forecast greatly.
However, we will need to see how much the atmospheric response from the MJO & the rapidly-strengthening La Nina (traditional & not Modoki currently) hamper those colder effects IF we do see this "bomb" & Arctic air release.
There is also the potential that the possible "bomb" & Arctic air dive more toward the Plains & Texas & not here due to the warm upper ridge in the Southeast (La Nina-induced) & the lingering Phase 1 MJO effects.
High/That Morning's Low...Date, Day Conditions
59/33...Oct. 27, Wed. AM Patchy to Areas of Fog with Areas of Frost, Increasing Clouds, E to ESE Wind 8-15 mph.
58/50...Oct. 28, Thu. Becoming Cloudy with Periods of Rain Developing (Coverage to 70% PM), E Wind 10-15 mph.
59/53...Oct. 29, Fri. Periods of Rain (Coverage Up to 60%), NE to N Wind 10-15 mph.
61/51...Oct. 30, Sat. AM Showers (40%), Mostly Cloudy, Then Partly Cloudy. N to NW Wind 10-15 mph.
60/43...Oct. 31, Sun. HALLOWEEN....Partly Cloudy, Variable Wind 5 mph.
60/39...Nov. 1, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 5-8 mph.
53/45...Nov. 2, Tue. Period of Rain (45%), SE Wind 5-10 mph Then W 15-25 mph.
53/36...Nov. 3, Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 15-25 mph
53/32...Nov. 4, Mostly Sunny, NE Wind 10-20 mph.
55/30...Nov. 5, Mostly Sunny, NE Wind 2-5 mph
58/32...Nov. 6, Increasing Clouds, SE Wind Becoming S 10-15 mph.
59/44...Nov. 7, Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy with Scattered Showers, SW 10-20 mph.
71/57...Nov. 8, Mostly Cloudy, with Periods of Showers & Storms (Potential MARGINAL RISK for severe), SW 15-25 mph.
65F/52...Nov. 9, with Showers, NW to N to NNE Wind 10-20 mph.
47/44...Nov. 10, Cloudy with Showers, NW Wind 20-30 mph.
45/30...Nov. 11, Partly Cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.
55/26...Nov. 12, Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, E 5-10 mph.
58/36...Nov. 13, Partly Cloudy, SE 5-15 mph.
67/50...Nov. 14, Partly Cloudy, S Wind 20-30 mph.
70/57...Nov. 15, Showers & Storms Possible (MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK?), S 20-35 mph.
47F/33...Nov. 16, AM Showers, Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-40 mph.
40/29...Nov. 17, Partly Cloudy, W 10-20 mph.
50/25...Nov. 18, Sunny, SW Wind 5-10 mph.
59/34...Nov. 19, Clouding Up, Evening Showers Possible, SW Wind 15-30 mph.
45/40...Nov. 20, Mostly Cloudy, NW 15-30 mph.
46/32...Nov. 21, Clearing, NNW 10-15 mph.
55/30...Nov. 22, Clouding Up, Showers Late, SE 20-30 mph.
55/45...Nov. 23, Cloudy, Showers, SW to W Wind 20-30 mph.
36/32...Nov. 24, Cloudy, Scattered Rain/Snow to Sct'd Snow Showers & Flurries, NW 20-30 mph.
42/28...Nov. 25, Mostly Cloudy, W to SW Wind 20-30 mph.
60/42...Nov. 26, Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Few Showers, SW to SSW Wind 25-40 mph.
65/54...Nov. 27, Rain & Storms Possible with Potential Severe Risk, SSW Wind 25-45 mph.
52F/28...Nov. 28, Cloudy, Few Showers to Few Snow Showers, W to NW Wind 25-50 mph.
It is possible that we do not drop below 20 in November.....it is POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, once winter roars in during early December, it will really roar in, it still appears with below to well-below normal temperatures & snow risk. There are signs we will not budge out of that pattern totally until after Christmas, then we have a 3-week long wet, mild stretch with a lack of snowfall.
First half to 2/3 of January look warmer & wetter than normal with below normal snowfall.
Consistent cold & below normal temperatures still forecast for the end of January & for the first half to 2/3 of February before we warm up. During that colder time, precipitation looks above normal with above normal snowfall.
At this point, spring still looks early with above normal precipitation in March & below normal snowfall.
Trends are for cooler & wetter than normal Summer overall with maximum temperature for Greater Lafayette at 93, not 100 like this past Summer. Maximum Summer temperatures look to be 90-94, rather than 95-100 like this past Summer.
Trends are for El Nino next Fall to Winter. Cooler & wetter than normal Fall possible, then drier & warmer than normal winter overall. This dependent upon El Nino strength & type of El Nino & the other players on the court.