SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

October 26, 12:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Nasty Saturday, better Sunday & some significant chill next week with first flakes of the season.

Posted: Oct 26, 2019 11:54 AM
Updated: Oct 26, 2019 12:44 PM

Widespread rain, heavy at times, will pass today.

Potential of isolated thunder & lightning will exist in the 5-8 p.m. time frame as strongest forcing moves through.

Center of the surface low will pass over the area this evening to early tonight with surface air pressure potentially down to 990 mb!

Check out the tight surface pressure gradient (the isobars).

If you are prone to aches & pains from arthrities to migraines (all caused by low pressure), today & tonight will be uncomfortable for you.

Widespread rainfall will become showery this evening to early tonight with potential of isolated thunder as center passes through.

Wind will increase through the day with gusts 30-40 mph at times later this afternoon.

Strongest winds look to pass as the widespread rain shuts off & temperatures suddenly rise in the 7-11 p.m. time frame. 

Gusts of 40-50 mph are likely with a few isolated +50 mph gusts possible.

Winds may still gust to 40 mph as late as 5 a.m.

Watch for wet roads covered in leaves tonight, as well as ponding from leaf-clogged drains.  Also, watch for dead limbs blown out of trees on roadways that will blend in with the dark pavement.  A couple/few isolated power outages are possible & a couple/few large live limbs or trees may fall where gusts exceed 50 mph.

Even at 3 p.m., temperatures are still only in the 40s to 50 over the area.

Then, note the tongue of 55-63 wraping around the center of the strong, deep surface low.

So, a sudden surge warmth will pass in the evening-early overnight for about 3 hours at any given point in the viewing area.

Temperature should then fall quickly back to the 40s to 50.

East-northeast to east wind should suddenly shift to southeast, then south, then southwest between 5 & 11 p.m.

A solid 1-2" of rainfall is likely.  Isolated +2" are possible.

Low clouds Sunday morning should clear, allowing for a brighter, dry Sunday with decreasing wind (after breezy weather in the morning).

Highs of 59-65 are likely.

Clear skies & some patchy fog are possible Sunday night.  Note how the greatest amount of fog & greatest reductions in visibitliy are south of our area.  Here, the better coverage of the patchy fog looks to be in the southern half of the viewing area where winds will stay completely calm.  There may tend to be a light southwest wind commencing as your go northward in the area, cutting down on fog coverage.

Also, note the cloud deck over northwestern Illinois to Iowa as surface cold front approaches.

Lows of 38-45 are likely by early Monday morning (coldest readings in our southern counties).

Strong surface cold front shows up well Monday afternoon!

Note temperatures only in the 30s in northwestern Illinois!  Temperatures drop from near 60 to 40 over a small area in Illinois.

We should surge to highs of 59-65 with strong south to southwest winds as clouds increase.

A few isolated showers will begin to make it into our northwestern counties by evening.

Most of the showers will be behind the front & note how blue (snow) just begins to show up in the evening on the Iowa-Missouri border.

We get in on some scattered chilly rain showers Monday night to early Tuesday morning (perhaps even to midday) with lows of 36-43.  It is not out of the question that our northwestern counties see a couple/few flakes of snow mix in before the precipitation ends.

A quick burst of snow may whiten fully-foliated trees, grassy areas, roof tops & car hoods & tops in eastern Iowa & northwestern Illinois.

Tuesday afternoon looks mostly cloudy with potential of a couple/few isolated showers with blustery conditions & highs only in the 40s to 50.

Wednesday-Thursday look mostly cloudy to cloudy, blustery & showery with some snow & sleet mixing in at times with highs in the 40s (even some upper 30s Thursday) & lows in the 30s.

As for Halloween, some rain/snow showers are possible right up to Trick-or-Treating before ending.  In fact, it may end as all snow showers (no accumulation currently expected, but we will monitor) with highs Thursday at only 38-45.

It looks windy & cold.

Temperatures at Trick-or-Treating (6:30-9:30 p.m.) should run 31-34 with wind bringing wind chills down to 22-25.

Lows Thursday night-early Friday morning should drop to 25-30 with some clearing & the wind diminishing.  However, wind chills may still run 20-25 Friday morning.

Highs Friday, with partly cloudy skies & gusty winds to 30 mph, should only reach 43-48.

Friday night looks clear, calm, frosty & cold with patchy freezing fog & lows 21-25.

Temperatures should run in the 40s & 50s next weekend with lows in the 20s & 30s with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.  It does look breezy to windy.

So, the leaves will be in a major cascade late next week to next weekend!  Get the rakes out & ready!

Oh how the Southeast & East warm upper ridge tries to hold the Arctic air back!

The dam will break down.  However, the Appalachians will modify the cold some & dam some up (note lack of purples from Georgia to New England).

Regardless, this is an impressive cold wave with significant temperature anomalies, especially in the Plains & eastern slopes of the Rockies.

Denver is expected to drop to 0, Wichita 19, Dallas 29, San Antonio 32 & Brownsville, Texas 44.  32-degree line will reach near the Gulf Coast west of Tallahassee.

Biggest factor in the significance of this COLD WAVE is Typhoon Bualoi, which may help to keep cold established into early November.

The system will carve very deep trough in western Alaska, creating massive very warm ridge in western Canada to the Pacific Northwest.  This, in turn, will drop the Arctic air southward.

I have seen this many times before.  Pacific typhoons release cold waves or they make cold surge much worse & of longer duration.  This has been seen in my analog data back 120 years.

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Big weather change ahead!!
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