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October 26, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update for now-late November.

Posted: Oct 26, 2018 9:00 PM
Updated: Oct 27, 2018 1:27 AM

Highs today ran 45-54 with coolest readings south due to more rainfall there.  Rain totaled 0.02" in our far northwestern areas to around 0.33" in Greater Lafayette.  The greatest totals were in southern Fountain County with up to 0.59" measured. 

A few spotty showers are possible Saturday morning, followed by lots of clouds, but some sun poking through.  An isolated shower or two is possible.  Highs will run 53-56 with north-northwest winds 10-20 mph.

As quickly as any of the low clouds break up & clear tomorrow night, high & mid level clouds will already be racing in with approaching Alberta Clipper.

Meanwhile, big Nor'Easter on the East Coast will pass with heavy rainfall, high seas, wind & even snow.  Coastal Flood Warnings & Advisories are up from Maryland to Massachusetts.  High Surf Advisory is up in North Carolina.  Flood Watches & High Wind Warnings are up along the coastal Northeast with icing to 0.25" accretion, sleet & up to 5" of snow possible in the interior Northeast (+10" higher elevations).

Wave of cold, blustery rain (temperatures in the 40s) with isolated thunder should pass Sunday morning to midday, followed by sunshine coming through over part of the area with strong southwest to west winds to 40 mph.

This midday to early afternoon burst of some sun should propel temperatures for part of the area to 56-60.  Readings will be cooler at 50-55 in the northeast & east due to more clouds.

Any sun should be obscured by clouds by mid afternoon with passage of clipper's cold front.  A few spotty showers & t'showers will be possible with the front & just behind it.

Temperatures will fall into the 40s to 50 by late afternoon with gusty northwest winds to 32 mph.

Note those strong winds Sunday.  A couple of rounds of wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible.

It looks windy, warmer & active as we approach & get through Halloween.

Monday looks good with sun & 58-63.  Tuesday look windy with increasing clouds & 63-67, but showers & isolated storms are centered around two waves of rainfall:  one Wednesday & another Thursday.  It is unclear when the break between the two will be.  It will hopefully be during Trick-or-Treating.

Widespread totals of 0.75-1.25" are likely Wednesday-Thursday with isolated +1.25" amounts.

Winds look brisk Wednesday.  Thursday looks windy with gusts to 35 mph possible.  Thursday's system will likely have some severe weather with it south & southeast of our area.

After a brief spurt of chilly 40s Friday (even lows in the 20s), we are in for a couple or even three warm, potent fall storm systems with rain & storms early to mid November.  Severe risk is possible.  Rainfall will run above normal.  The warm should peak just before & around mid November with potential 60s to 70.

Note the CPC CFSv2 mean temperatures running above normal with a peak nearing/at mid November:

The bottom will fall out on our temperatures likely after second powerhouse storm passes & that looks to be right at mid November.

Here it comes.  Note the strong storm system & the cold plunge behind it with some snow to Oklahoma & the Texas Panhandle.

Arctic high should dominate for a while in late November, just prior to Thanksgiving & following mid month storm system.

Note the expanse of the cold, dry air.  Also note that the strong cold front clears the Florida Keys to even Cuba!  Cool, dry air will make it that far southward.  It will be the first day of fresh, dry, low humidity (& cool by Florida standards in November) in central & south Florida since late April.

As potential system comes out of Kansas or Oklahoma, some minor snowfall would not surprise me here in late November.

Once we get to the end of November to very early December, there are signs of a warm-up.  Drier than normal precipitation regime should carry us past mid November, through late November, to the beginning of December.

Note the turn to southwesterly winds in graphic below.

Warm up in very early December should end with passage of strong cold front with a clipper system.

This is the most likely scenario when looking at our analog years (early winters similar to this one).  There may be some snow with this system, but not analog signal screams big winter storm in this pattern.

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