October 25, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Virga today, showers tomorrow & look right back toward November with the latest analysis

Posted: Oct 25, 2018 4:20 PM
Updated: Oct 25, 2018 5:47 PM

For much of the viewing area, this has been the 14th consecutive day of below normal temperatures.

It looks like rain on radar, but it is virga or precipitation that is drying up before it hits the ground.

What this virga is doing is "seeding" the clouds to moisten them so the next wave of precip will make it to the ground.  That will be tomorrow morning.

Note the blurry, lumpy mid clouds with the virga in the early afternoon.

Now notice how the cloud texture has changed & the clouds have lowered.  This shows how the virga has moistened up the troposphere.

Showers will increase Friday morning to pretty steady light rain.  Highs will run 45 south to 51 far north & 48 in Greater Lafayette.

Friday-Saturday morning total rainfall of 0.05" in the far northwest to 0.35" in the far south & near 0.18" around Greater Lafayette seems reasonable.

It will be rather breezy at times with east-northeast to northeast winds at 11-22 mph.

Meanwhile, a big coastal storm or Nor'Easter will hammer the Gulf Coast & Northeast with heavy rainfall, high tides, wind & even interior heavy snowfall in New England. 

Here, with less wind & mostly cloudy skies Saturday, isolated showers are possible, followed by rainfall overspreading the area via Alberta Clipper Sunday afternoon.

With gusty southwest winds becoming northwest Sunday, highs will run 50-55.

Rainfall totals Sunday-Monday morning should run 0.15-0.35".

After clouds & a couple isolated showers with the troughiness Monday, Tuesday looks great with sunshine, not a lot of wind & highs 58-63.

With gusty south to southwest winds & increasing clouds, highs on Halloween will reach 63-67.  The 60s warmth should continue right into the evening as a band of rainfall & even a couple of embedded rumbles of thunder/flashes of lightning approach.

The potential of getting wet for Trick-or-Treating still looks to increase as the evening wears on with 20% of rainfall at 6 p.m. to 30% by 7 p.m., then it skyrockets to 60% 8-9 p.m.  This could still change.  The rainfall may speed up or slow down, but this is the best estimate right now.  The earlier you go treat-or-tricking, the better.

Rainfall Wednesday night to Thursday morning of 0.50-1" is possible with isolated +1" amounts as we transition to wetter November regime.

It looks active, rather stormy, windy & mild in the early half of November.  In fact, the GFS model has the lowest temperature now-November 15 in Lafayette at 33.

NAO will go to its most positive level in early November since early October.  This signals warmth.  Note how it suddenly went negative & we suddenly went into this colder pattern.

The MJO, which has been in Phase 2, a cold phase, looks to go into Phase 7, 8 then 1, which are all warmer phases this time of year, on average.  This signals our big warm-up in November. 

After mid-November note how we are projected to stay in Phase 2, 3, 4, then 5, which are all cold phases of the MJO.  This signals much colder weather ahead.

Note how we go to a Phase 6 around Thanksgiving, signaling that warm up that may occur for a bit at the end of November (before turning sharply colder with time in December).

What are MJO Phases?  They all have varying effects on our weather at various times of year.  One phase in one part of the year will give you a different response in another part of the year.  The MJO is just another piece of puzzle that works with a lot of other factors to help build a forecast.

Multiple storm systems will lead to above normal rainfall & potential of severe in a couple of instances. 

Much colder weather will rush in after mid November.  Minor snowfall could even occur.

There are signs of a stratospheric warming episode in the Arctic, which signals that a dislodging of cold, cold air could occur in the eastern U.S. after November 15.

West Lafayette
35° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 35°
Kokomo
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 28°
Rensselaer
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 26°
Fowler
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 26°
Williamsport
35° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 35°
Crawfordsville
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 32°
Frankfort
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 32°
Delphi
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 28°
Monticello
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 28°
Logansport
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 26°
Clouds Build Sunday Ahead Of Snow
WLFI Radar
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 324537

Reported Deaths: 5594
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion44186858
Lake28094462
Allen18660301
Elkhart17663230
St. Joseph17256234
Hamilton13612170
Vanderburgh10028121
Tippecanoe896729
Porter855386
Johnson6718169
Hendricks6412158
Vigo625889
Monroe550450
Clark531078
Madison5239122
Delaware5075103
LaPorte481196
Kosciusko475941
Howard364177
Bartholomew335365
Warrick335372
Floyd329478
Wayne325678
Marshall311846
Cass303931
Grant287150
Hancock272957
Noble264946
Henry256437
Boone255054
Dubois245631
Dearborn228231
Jackson226334
Morgan221243
Gibson194926
Knox193021
Shelby192656
Clinton185421
DeKalb183932
Lawrence183849
Wabash172821
Adams172422
Miami170815
Daviess163145
Fayette153734
Steuben153414
Jasper151713
Montgomery149327
Harrison147624
LaGrange146131
Ripley145815
Whitley142314
Huntington133510
Decatur132543
Putnam131128
White131022
Wells130130
Clay130023
Randolph128121
Posey125816
Jefferson124116
Scott114520
Greene106053
Sullivan102716
Jay101913
Starke95022
Jennings90414
Spencer8908
Fulton87519
Perry85121
Fountain8228
Washington8127
Franklin73427
Carroll71913
Orange70028
Vermillion6607
Owen6468
Tipton60327
Parke6026
Newton57812
Rush5708
Blackford56612
Pike52719
Pulaski41815
Martin3705
Benton3643
Brown3574
Crawford3081
Union2782
Switzerland2655
Warren2562
Ohio2387
Unassigned0266

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events