After 1.5-5.1" of rainfall, with a good chunk of that rainfall falling Sunday evening-night, river & creek flooding is underway.
At the Purdue Airport, we blew away the daily record for rainfall yesterday with 2.52". This beat the old record of 0.80" set in 2001 (records Purdue University 1879-1943, Purdue Airport 1944-Present).
The two periods of very wet weather in early & now late October have made 2021 the wettest October on record! This, after Moderate Drought at times during the Summer!
It is reminiscent of what happened in the Summer with up to 92% of the rainfall in the viewing area in June & July falling late June to early July period.
After being so dry at the end of September, October has turned into a historically-wet month!
We are cooling now, but it has still been a warm October in Greater Lafayette with the mean temperature equal to a normal October at Nashville, Tennessee.
11 p.m. flood information & forecasts from National Weather Service hydrologists:
WABASH RIVER AT LAFAYETTE:
At these levels:
Extensive flooding covers many acres of
agricultural land. State Road 225 closed by high water. Granville
Bridge Public Access Site flooded. Tippecanoe CR 950 W south of CR
75 S floods in several places from the Wabash Bottoms, Janssen
Tract to Warren CR 350 N in the Black Rock Preserve Area, a
distance of nearly 1.5 miles. High water affects Fort Ouiatenon
area. All parks in the West Lafayette and Lafayette areas are
flooded. High water almost on North River Road.
WABASH RIVER AT COVINGTON:
Lanes to river residences west of South
River Road south of Covington flooded. Sandhill Road at Mud Run
just northeast of Covington begins to flood. Extensive lowland
flooding in progress. Higher bottomlands flood.
WILDCAT CREEK NEAR LAFAYETTE:
Flooding of lowland areas in progress in
portions of Tippecanoe County.
New rainfall Thursday-Friday-early Saturday should run 0.50-1.30" rainfall area-wide.
Periods of rainfall area expected Thursday-early Saturday as storm track south of our area, keeping us in southeast to east then northeast winds. This track will keep the 70s south of our area & keep the severe weather risk southwest & south & southeast of our area, as well.
Highs will run 57-63 Thursday-Saturday with lows in the 50-55 range. This, after partly cloudy & 55-60 Tuesday, 36-40 Thursday night with patchy to areas of fog with a few frost patches & partly cloudy skies with 60-65 Wednesday.
Winds will be north Tuesday at 13-23 mph & east to east-southeast winds at 10 mph Wednesday.
Saturday to Monday afternoon look partly cloudy with highs 57-64 & lows 39-44.
Beyond Tuesday: Trend is to bring the frost & freezing in sooner as big storm over the Aleutians leads to some troughiness here, then sprawling Canadian High. However, MJO phase & La Nina impacts will tend to counteract the colder impacts. So, it doesn't look as cold as what it would be in a neutral year or a situation where La Nina Modoki is already in place. The atmosphere is already responding to the traditional La Nina now, which may transition to more Modoki by November, leading to cold in December.
Greater Lafayette Numbers....They Will Be Cooler or Warmer or the Same Elsewhere In the Viewing area.
High/AM Low...Date, Day Conditions
58/42...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, N 13-24 mph.
64/38...Oct. 27, Wed. AM Patchy to Areas of Fog with a Few Frost Patches in Low-Lying Areas, Partly Cloudy, ESE to SE Wind 10-15 mph.
62/51...Oct. 28, Thu. Becoming Cloudy with Periods of Rain Developing, E Wind 10-20 mph.
61/54...Oct. 29, Fri. Periods of Rain, E to NE Wind 10-15 mph.
60/46...Oct. 30, Sat. Few AM Showers, Mostly Cloudy, Then Partly Cloudy. N to NW Wind 10-15 mph.
62/43...Oct. 31, Sun. HALLOWEEN....Partly Cloudy, Variable Wind 5 mph.
62/42...Nov. 1, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 5-8 mph.
60/50...Nov. 2, Tue. Period of Rain (60%), SE Wind 5-10 mph Then SW to W 15-25 mph.
53/36...Nov. 3, Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 15-25 mph
53/32...Nov. 4, Mostly Sunny, NE Wind 10-20 mph.
55/30...Nov. 5, Mostly Sunny, NE Wind 2-5 mph
58/32...Nov. 6, Increasing Clouds, SE Wind Becoming S 10-15 mph.
59/44...Nov. 7, Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy with Scattered Showers, SW 10-20 mph.
71/57...Nov. 8, Mostly Cloudy, with Periods of Showers & Storms (Potential MARGINAL RISK for severe), SW 15-25 mph.
65F/52...Nov. 9, with Showers, NW to N to NNE Wind 10-20 mph.
47/44...Nov. 10, Cloudy with Showers, NW Wind 20-30 mph.
45/30...Nov. 11, Partly Cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.
55/26...Nov. 12, Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, E 5-10 mph.
58/36...Nov. 13, Partly Cloudy, SE 5-15 mph.
67/50...Nov. 14, Partly Cloudy, S Wind 20-30 mph.
70/57...Nov. 15, Showers & Storms Possible (MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK?), S 20-35 mph.
47F/33...Nov. 16, AM Showers, Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-40 mph.
40/29...Nov. 17, Partly Cloudy, W 10-20 mph.
50/25...Nov. 18, Sunny, SW Wind 5-10 mph.
59/34...Nov. 19, Clouding Up, Evening Showers Possible, SW Wind 15-30 mph.
45/40...Nov. 20, Mostly Cloudy, NW 15-30 mph.
46/32...Nov. 21, Clearing, NNW 10-15 mph.
55/30...Nov. 22, Clouding Up, Showers Late, SE 20-30 mph.
55/45...Nov. 23, Cloudy, Showers, SW to W Wind 20-30 mph.
36/32...Nov. 24, Cloudy, Scattered Rain/Snow to Sct'd Snow Showers & Flurries, NW 20-30 mph.
42/28...Nov. 25, Mostly Cloudy, W to SW Wind 20-30 mph.
60/42...Nov. 26, Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Few Showers, SW to SSW Wind 25-40 mph.
65/54...Nov. 27, Rain & Storms Possible with Potential Severe Risk, SSW Wind 25-45 mph.
52F/28...Nov. 28, Cloudy, Few Showers to Few Snow Showers, W to NW Wind 25-50 mph.
It is possible that we do not drop below 20 in November.....it is POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, once winter roars in during early December, it will really roar in, it still appears with below to well-below normal temperatures & snow risk. There are signs we will not budge out of that pattern totally until after Christmas, then we have a 3-week long wet, mild stretch with a lack of snowfall.
First half to 2/3 of January look warmer & wetter than normal with below normal snowfall.
Consistent cold & below normal temperatures still forecast for the end of January & for the first half to 2/3 of February before we warm up. During that colder time, precipitation looks above normal with above normal snowfall.
At this point, spring still looks early with above normal precipitation in March & below normal snowfall.
Trends are for cooler & wetter than normal Summer overall with maximum temperature for Greater Lafayette at 93, not 100 like this past Summer. Maximum Summer temperatures look to be 90-94, rather than 95-100 like this past Summer.
Trends are for El Nino next Fall to Winter. Cooler & wetter than normal Fall possible, then drier & warmer than normal winter overall. This dependent upon El Nino strength & type of El Nino & the other players on the court.