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October 23, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update!

Posted: Oct 23, 2019 12:14 PM
Updated: Oct 23, 2019 4:44 PM

Lows this morning ran 34-41.

It is a windy day with highs so far at 63-67.

Clouds will continue to increase & thicken tonight.  It will become mostly cloudy as dry surface cold front comes through.  Anything on radar would be virga, as the air will be too dry for precipitation to make it to the ground.

Lows will run 43-48 with wind shift to the northwest at 5-10 mph.

With overall mostly cloudy skies, highs tomorrow will run 52-59 with a northwest wind at 7-12 mph.

A couple/few isolated showers are possible in the midday to afternoon & evening, but coverage will only run around 25%.

A few isolated showers are possible tomorrow night to Friday morning with mostly cloudy skies & lows 40-44 with wind turning to the north, then northeast at 5-8 mph.

Friday looks mostly cloudy, though clearing is possible in our far northwestern & northern counties.  Highs should run 48-54.

Friday night, skies look to turn mostly cloudy to cloudy area-wide after some initial clearing as far south as the heart of the viewing area in the evening.

Lows will run in the 30s to around 40 with a northeast to east-northeast wind at 7-12 mph.

Saturday is tricky.

Our front will be laid up south of our area & strong, moisture-laden storm system will eject out of the Gulf of Mexico & move northeastward. 

Widespread heavy rainfall is likely all over the southern U.S. to Tennessee & mid- to upper-Ohio Valley.  Even some severe weather with warmth may occur from Louisiana to Virginia.

Big question is HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE STORM SYSTEM GET?

This will determine how our Saturday forecast unfolds.

If it moves far enough northward, then we could get into a wash-out....................or at least a showery day Saturday......or a few showers anyway.  This, combined with strong surface high to our northeast would been a chilly, wind-driven rain with east winds 20-30 mph.

If the surface high wins out & the storm system stays far enough south, we are looking at just clouds & an east to northeast wind.

This bears close watching.  We will have much better confidence on rainfall potential here for Saturday in the coming 24-30 hours.

This model has this system tracking far enough north & west for a showery Saturday with strong, chilly east wind:

Sunday looks warmer (& breezy to windy from the southwest) with some sun & 58-65, followed by a strong cold front Monday, which may bring a few showers & strong gusty winds to 35 mph.

A stair-step into MUCH colder weather will follow next week with highs only reaching around 40 to the 40s with time.

A series of cold front will pass with cold get an extra push or dive into the area courtesy of the remnants of Typhoon Bualoi in the Pacific.  It will become a major mid-latitude storm near the Aleutian Island of western Alaska.  With a deep trough there, a big ridge will develop in western Canada & the northwestern U.S.  This means cold upper troughing here.

With that, lows will run in the 30s.

Halloween looks cold, but dry with temperatures in the 30s for Trick-or-Treating!

Each day will feature lots of clouds, strong northwest winds & spotty rain showers with even a bit of graupal, sleet &/or a few flakes mixed in.

By the end of next week, lows may dip to 21-25 with Arctic high right over head.

It should warm-up nicely, turn wetter & potentially stormy in the early half of November.  Some severe risk may reach here around November 5-6 & around November 13-15. 

We may have a couple of spurts with highs 68-74 with lows 56-61.

There will be a lot of wind, so say goodbye to the leaves as they will quickly shed in early November.

This looks to be followed by MUCH colder, wintry weather with below to well-below normal temperatures & even some very minor snowfall.

Article Comments

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