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October 23, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on risk of rainfall for Saturday.

Posted: Oct 23, 2019 9:14 PM
Updated: Oct 23, 2019 10:34 PM

After lows this morning of 34-41, highs today reached 64-68.

Highs today exceeded the projected expectations of 59-66 due to a longer duration of mostly sunny skies.

It was another breezy to windy day.  Peak gusts reached as high as 36 mph in the viewing area.

With mostly cloudy skies overall, a few isolated showers/sprinkles are possible Thursday PM to early Friday morning.

After 53-59 Thursday, 40-45 Thursday night & 48-55 Friday (mostly cloudy, but clearing in the north with some clearing working into heart of the area by late evening), we should drop to 32-40 Friday night (coldest north where clearing occurs).

Northwest breeze Thursday should turn to northeast by Friday at 7-14 mph.

There is increasing consensus that at least scattered showers will impact the area Saturday 2 p.m.-2 a.m. with brisk east wind at 15-25 mph.  Highs of 51-55 seem reasonable at the moment.  I went for 40% coverage.  This may increase.....we will see.

Heaviest rainfall should stay south & southeast of here, but we are looking at some scattered about.

Totals in this 12-hour period are expected to reach (as of right now) 0.08-0.25".

Surface high to our northeast looks to create the pressure gradient for the breezy conditions & will also bleed in some dry air, keeping rainfall totals lower & precipitation scattered.

Sunday looks partly cloudy, windy (southwest wind 15-30 mph) & warmer ahead of cold front with highs 61-66 after 35-40 in the morning.

Cold front Monday may bring a few scattered showers with gusty winds turning to the northwest up to 35 mph.

With instability stratocumulus/cumulus, a few rain & graupal showers are possible Tuesday & Wednesday with gusty northwest winds.

Wednesday looks to feature a re-enforcing cold front (as Typhoon Bualoi evolves into major mid-latitude storm as it approaches western Alaska, dislodging cold air southeastward [as storm forcing ridge into western Canada & Pacific Northwest & deep trough downstream]).

A few rain/snow showers are possible Halloween morning to midday, followed by clearing trend & decreasing wind.  Highs may only reach 38-45.

Halloween night currently looks clear & frosty with 7-9 p.m. temperatures dropping from 38-32.  Lows of 21-25 are possible.  Such lows would either occur Thursday night-Friday morning or Friday night-Saturday morning.

Friday looks bright & chilly with 40s, nonetheless (with less wind).

It is an impressive cold wave with a boost from Northern Hemispheric effects of Typhoon Bualoi.

It will take time to get rid of the cold as it completely races through the Gulf of Mexico & brings Cuba & the Yucatan northwest winds & below normal temperatures.

Meanwhile the West will heat up & that heat will move eastward & more will begin to move up from the southwest with time.

Recovery from the Gulf will take some time with it scoured of any CAPE & the warmth.

Deep trough will drop into the West with welcome rainfall into California & needed early mountain snowfall.

Above to well-above normal temperatures will develop in the Plains & through our area in early November.

It may take until around November 5 to really surge with warmth here.

Looks drier than normal until around November 5-6.  Wetter weather should pass near then & up to November 13-15, but it looks overall warmer than normal & windy.

In fact a couple of surges of 68-74 are possible with very mild lows of 57-61.

Surface CAPE will move northward in early to mid November ahead of multiple storm systems.

Severe risk will occur in multiple occasions from Texas & Oklahoma to Missouri to Tennessee & Georgia.

Some could get as far north as our area given the pattern.

Should be pretty active storm track with two to three systems in the November 5-15 period with strong upper jet & strong winds throughout the troposphere.

After the warmth & wetness, much colder weather should follow.  Lows in the single digits & teens with some very minor snowfall is possible in latter November.

Cold erodes away as we get to early December.  Note the vestiges of some below normal temperatures in the South & in Mexico with dry, mild, zonal Pacific flow over much of the country.

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Dry, mild conditions continue.
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