SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

October 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Big temperature change with showers/storms with risk of isolated severe storm or two. Here is also a look at the trends now through winter & into Spring based on new Euro & CFS model runs & another examination of analog data.

Posted: Oct 22, 2020 9:17 PM
Updated: Oct 22, 2020 10:47 PM

Today's high at the Purdue Airport reached 83 degrees.  We also hit 83 at our WLFI ob site.

This is the warmest temperature so late in the fall since 1963 when we saw a high of 83 on October 27.

The latest temperature to reach 83 on record (Purdue University 1879-1953, Purdue University Airport 1954-present) is 83 on October 31, 1950.

The latest the temperature has reached 82 at Greater Lafayette is November 1, 1950.

The latest temperature at or above 80 is November 2, 1950.

The latest date the temperature has exceeded 75 is November 19, 1930 when the high reached 78.

Highs today ran 79-84 with the highest dew points since September 13.

Late morning-midday to early afternoon will feature line of showers & storms with an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible (wind).

Scattered showers & storms will follow behind the front with risk of isolated hailer.

Temperatures will fall rapidly from 70-78 to 40s to 50s in a 5- to 6-hour period Friday.

Rainfall should total 0.35-0.80".

South-southwest to west to northwest winds may gust to 35 mph at times.

Saturday looks partly cloudy with highs 52-58 after morning lows 35-41 with north to north-northeast winds 15-25 mph.

Scattered showers & a few storms will develop Sunday with skies becoming cloudy & highs 55-62.

Rainfall & a few storms are likely Sunday with highs in the 50s.  If the storm track shifts north a bit then Sunday will turn warmer over our southern half with risk of a couple severe storms.

Otherwise, it looks like any severe weather risk will stay south of our area in the warmth.

Rainfall of 0.50-1.00" is possible with winds dominated by the east & northeast.

After highs upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday to Wednesday with partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s.

50s to 60 will occur Thursday then 60s Friday with partly cloudy skies & lows in the 40s.

November 1-3 show highs of 50s & lows in the 30s.

November 4-10 looks warmer to much warmer than normal with highs in the 60s & 70s with lows in the 40s & 50s.

It looks rather dry next week to just past Halloween.

It looks increasingly wet again getting further into November with potential of storms, even some severe weather.

This warmer, stormier pattern should persist until around November 20 when strong cold front & upper trough pass.  The first widespread hard freeze should occur after this front.

November to April still (overall) features this pattern of above normal precipitation in our region.  The flood risk is elevated this winter to spring & severe weather risk is elevated winter to spring.

Dry, droughty conditions with below to well-below normal precipitation looks to occur California to the southern Plains to the Deep South.

Above to well-above normal snowfall should occur from the Cascades to the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains & western Great Lakes.

Below to well-below temperatures (overall) appear to occur in the Pacific Northwest to Northern Rockies to Northern Plains & western Great Lakes.

Above normal temperatures should occur over the southwestern, southern & eastern U.S.

For us, the coldest month of the winter should be January. 

Snowfall in our area (for the October-April snow season) looks below the normal of 17-33" (17" is normal in far southwest & 33" in far northeast).  We average around 23" for the October-April snow season.

Lafayette
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 22°
Feels Like: 45°
Kokomo
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 34°
Rensselaer
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 42° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 34°
Lafayette
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 45°
Danville
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 40°
Frankfort
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 36°
Frankfort
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 22°
Feels Like: 36°
Monticello
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 36°
Monticello
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 36°
Logansport
Clear
39° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 34°
Nice, mild weather....more active by late next week.
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