MJO is neutral now, but looks to suddenly deviate to Phase 1 & become solid influencer Sunday, October 24 to early November, based on new model data.
Sudden shift to solid Phase 1 for late October to early November tends to support:
1. Wetter than normal weather here.
2. Warmer than normal weather here.
3. Very wet, atmospheric-river storms hitting central & northern California to Oregon with often flooding rainfall.
4. Very wet weather with higher severe weather risk Illinois to the Lower Mississippi Valley & over the South.
MJO should then go back to neutral after November 6 & remain neutral until getting into low-end Phase 5 in late November.
This supports a bit cooler, drier weather overall if it out-does all other indices.
Highs today occurred this morning at 61-65 before dropping to lower to middle 50s by early afternoon with strong west to northwest wind.
Friday looks mostly cloudy to cloudy with highs 52-55 with west to west-northwest winds 10-15 mph. Isolated to spotty showers, sprinkles & drizzle are expected tonight-tomorrow.
Clearing with frost is expected in the northwest with 32-36, while clouds & 38-42 are expected farther east & southeastward.
Winds look northwest, then northeast Saturday at 5-15 mph with highs 58-63 with partly cloudy skies.
We turn mostly cloudy to cloudy with 41-48 Saturday night as northeast winds turn more to the east.
Warm front will lift northward Sunday & may reached Highway 18 by early evening.
This means south of 18 is looking at period of rain & a few storms Sunday morning to early afternoon, then some lulling, while north of 18 may be rainy with a few storms all day.
The south looks much warmer with peaks of sun in the PM with 66-72, while the north will stay cool at generally 50-55.
North will have east to northeast winds all day, while the south will see a shift to southeast, then south winds.
A severe weather outbreak is expected Illinois to Arkansas & eastern Oklahoma Sunday-Sunday night. We will see the leftovers arrive Sunday night with temperatures steady or rising in the 59-66 range.
It does appear that the MARGINAL RISK (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather could make it into Warren, Tippecanoe, Fountain, Montgomery & Clinton counties.
SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 of 5) should reside in Illinois, while parameters suggest ENHANCED RISK (Level 3 of 5) Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas to southwestern Illinois.
1-3" of total rainfall is possible across the viewing area Sunday-Monday. Heaviest totals should be north of US 24.
This is *NOT* an official SPC forecast, but I want to show you what the current parameters suggest for severe weather Sunday evening-night. Our risk for isolated severe storm or two would be 8 p.m. to 2 a.m., while severe weather outbreak with all severe weather hazards is expected southwest of here with ENHANCED RISK parameters showing up from the St. Louis area west & southwestward.
SPC will have the *OFFICIAL* updated Convective Outlook up after 1 a.m. for the early Sunday to early Monday period.
Projected rainfall shows widespread soaking rain, but it being especially heavy in our northern counties with amounts to 3" by Monday.
Rainfall should taper Monday with 60s (temperatures may fall some in the afternoon as front drops back southward, then any rainfall Tuesday would be isolated with a mostly cloudy sky. Highs Tuesday should vary from 50s north to 70s potentially in the far south.
The warm front should move far enough to the north that most of the viewing area looks to be 75-80 Wednesday with humid dew points in the 60s & strong south-southwest winds 20-30 mph.
Looks like a round of showers & storms late Wednesday night-Thursday. Right now, any severe weather risk looks to be Iowa to Missouri & Arkansas. We will likely see our highs Thursday morning at 67-72, then temperatures fall.