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October 21, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update

Rain now, some showers/storms along cold front a bit later.....

Posted: Oct 21, 2019 10:00 AM
Updated: Oct 21, 2019 12:27 PM

12:25 p.m.

Still breezy to windy, but strongest winds have departed.  Still some gusts at times 35-40 mph for a while longer, but not gusts +45 mph.

Forecast is below these updates.......

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11:57 a.m.

Saw some high sustained winds in Newton County at up to 43 mph about 10 minutes ago, but now quickly decreasing there.

Entire viewing area seeing gusts now at least around 30 mph.  Even Grissom ARB in the far east is gusting now to 31 mph.

Highest gusts are over Jasper & eastern Benton to far western White & to western Tippecanoe to Montgomery counties at 40 mph to +40 mph at times.

Peak gusts:

49 mph Kentland Municipal AIrport

47 mph 2 N Rensselaer

44 mph Jasper County Airport

43 mph Covington

41 mph Purdue Airport

39 mph 5 E Fowler

39 mph 3 NE Newtown

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11:30 a.m.

Strong winds from southeast continue in northwest (+40 mph).

Strongest winds will NOT last long, however.

Latest gusts:

47 mph Kentland Municipal Airport

47 mph Morocco

43 mph Covington

Estimated gusts 45 mph reported on the stateline west-northwest of Kentland.

Getting some higher gusts in Warren & Fountain to Benton, as well (but no +40 mph):

35 mph 5 E Fowler

31 mph 5 NW Kingman

30 mph Enos

30 mph 2 NW Boswell

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11:13 a.m.

Pocket of high winds is pivoting through our northwestern counties currently behind the rain:

Current peak gusts (+40 mph):

47 mph  Morocco (sustained at 40 mph for a bit)

43 mph Kentland Municipal Airport (sustained at 40 mph for a bit)

Just outside our area:

60 mph 4 NE Kankakee

55 mph Gary Regional Airport

52 mph Greater Kankakee Municipal Airport

44 mph IN/IL State Line 8 W Lake Village

44 mph Rantoul National Air Park

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11 a.m.

After lows yesterday morning of 43-50 & highs 65-75, it has been widespread rainfall & isolated thunder this morning.

However, main line of storms is southeast & south of our area where Tornado Watches occurred as far north as southern Illinois & western Kentucky.

Just behind this line & our rain in eastern & northeastern Illinois there is a about 70-mile wide area of very strong southeast winds at 35-55 mph due to quick pressure rise between this MCV & a little meso-high just west of it.  Then pressure drop again as cold front approaches & already-strong surface low deepens over northern Iowa.  A pocket of +60 mph gusts over a small 1- to 2-county area could develop,which would most likely pass northwest of our area, but we will monitor.

A pocket of these winds could affect part of the viewing area (mainly northwestern counties) briefly in the next 1-2 hours as it pivots northeastward.

Actual surface ol ftont is along the Mississippi River, but notice how cloudy it is in Illinois.

Any risk of an isolated severe storm (as a low-topped line of showers & a few storms that develops along the cold front) will be based on whether any sun can appear in Illinois or our area ahead of it.

Data shows a narrow, low topped line(s) with the front this afternoon.

A narrow band of surface CAPE is seen with good shear & strong winds through the troposphere with good lift.

IF..........IF we can get a shallow layer of CAPE...........surface & ML CAPE up to 400 J/kg then isolated severe gust(s) &/or brief weak rope tornado risk could develop.  However, this risk is conditional upon on how much sun can appear, which would help to determine the CAPE.

Based on a projected near 400 J SB CAPE & 300 ML CAPE with the shear & dynamics, this is what a sounding (cross section of the troposphere) looks like in the early afternoon with temp of 67 & dew point of 62 as cold front & low topped line come in.  DD CAPE of near 900 J show that there would be a good momentum transfer of strong gusts to the ground, which would mean isolated severe gust(s) risk.

Strong wind fields, slight wind shift in the lowest 3000' moist boundary layer & that 62 dew point show isolated brief weak tornado risk in this projected environment.

Note the very strong wind fields through the troposphere & the moist, saturated 1000-4700' layer.

Narrow corridor of MARGINAL RISK scenario if some sun can appear this early afternoon.

I went with highs 64-70.

It should clear tonight with gusty winds, followed by low cloud deck pivoting in with breezy to windy conditions tomorrow & highs only 48-56.  Some areas of more sun will appear in the south, but the north may be cloudy all day.  West to southwest winds may gust to 35 mph.

Highs 58-64 will dominate Wednesday-Thursday with lows 30s to 40s.  Some frost is possible Tuesday night to Thursday morning.

Cold front will pass Thursday with a few showers.

Friday looks chilly & windy with highs 45-52 with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph.

Lows in the 25-29 range are possible Friday night as skies clear & winds go calm.

As for Saturday, highs 49-56 are likely with partly cloudy skies & less wind.

Two warm-ups are seen, one brief one near Halloween, followed by brief cold snap (cold front should bring some severe risk from Texas to Georgia & then east of our area West Virginia & Virginia to New England), then consistent warm should arrive in early November with overall above normal temperatures.

It should also turn wetter than normal with risk of some severe weather as far north as our area centered around November 5-6 & November 13-15.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Icy roads tonight as temperatures approach record cold levels.
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