October 19, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Late-week cool-down with near record warmth possible mid to late next week...

Posted: Oct 19, 2021 1:38 PM
Updated: Oct 19, 2021 4:12 PM

Lows this morning ran 43-50.

It does not look like much rain Wednesday night.  Trace to 0.25" will occur with a few scattered fast-moving showers & isolated t'showers.

Dry slot in Thursday morning means sun & 60s, then low clouds roll in for the midday to afternoon with northwest winds & temperatures falling into the 50s.

Friday looks rather gray & cool with 54-58 & a few sprinkles to isolated light showers possible. 

It appears the clouds may hang on well into Friday night, complicating the temperature forecast.  If the overcast hangs on then lows will only drop to the 40-45 range.  If we see partial clearing, then 35-40.  If we are completely clear with a light wind then frost & 30-34.

Right now, trend is for broken clouds, so went with lows 37-42.

Saturday looks partly cloudy as any stratocumulus depart & high & mid clouds increase a bit.  Highs will run 57-62 with an east wind as front moves back north as a warm front.

With clouds, lows on Saturday night should run 40-45.

That warm front will arrive Sunday & then gradually push northward through Monday with east to southeast winds.

Some scattered showers & isolated storms are possible Sunday PM-Sunday night to early Monday AM.  Temperatures should run in the 55-59 range Sunday.

Behind the warm front we should warm to 75-80 Tuesday with a strong south wind 15-25 mph with partly cloudy skies, followed by near/record warm night with lows of 62-66.

As for Wednesday, it looks partly cloudy & windy with near/record warmth day & night with highs 78-82 & lows 64-67.

Thoughts are that the main surface cold front & upper trough will pass through Thursday morning with line of storms, then some rain behind it.

Parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK.

We should be back to highs of 55-60 October 29. 

At this point, there is no sign of any freezing weather until around November 8.  If we do not get to 36 by November 8, it would be the latest occurence of first 36 on record.  The all-time record is November 7, 1940 for the first 36 or lower temperature.

We will monitor.

The latest first freeze on record occurred November 13, 1946.  It does appear we will get the first freeze before then at the official daily Greater Lafayette observation site, the Purdue University Airport.

High/Low That Morning...Date, Day, Conditions

73/44...Oct.19, Tue. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 10-20 mph.

76/51...Oct. 20, Wed. Increasing Clouds, Isolated Showers/T'Showers Late (20%), S 20-30 mph

64F/58...Oct. 21, Thu. Overnight Few Scattered Showers & Storms (40%), Early AM Shower, Then Clearing, Then Clouding Up with a Couple Isolated Showers/Sprinkles (20%), WSW to W 15-25 mph to NW 20-30 mph. Temperatures Falling Into the 50s by Late Afternoon.

57/46...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy, Isolated Sprinkles/Light Shower (15-20%), NW Wind 10-25 mph.

60/38...Oct. 23, Sat. Clouds Look Like They May Hang On Friday Night, Preventing Frost....We Will Monitor, Partly Cloudy Saturday, N Wind 10-20 mph

58/41...Oct. 24, Sun. Clouding Up, Scattered PM Showers, E Wind 10-20 mph.

63/51...Oct. 25, Mon. Overnight Showers & a Few Storms, Mostly Cloudy Day, E 15-25 mph turning to SE after 6 p.m.

78/57...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 15-25 mph.

81/65...Oct. 27, Wed. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 20-30 mph.

70/66...Oct. 28, Thu. Scattered Showers & Storms MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters), S Wind 20-30 mph Becoming W to NW 20-35 mph.

57/43...Oct. 29, Fri. Partly to Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-30 mph.

66/37...Oct. 30, Sat. Becoming Mostly Sunny, SW 10 mph.

68/45...Oct. 31, Sun. Increasing Clouds, S 15-25 mph

72/61...Nov. 1, AM Showers, Then Partly to Mostly Cloudy, S to SE 10-20 mph Decreasing to 5-10 mph.

76/58...Nov. 2, AM Fog, Then Partly to Mostly Cloudy, SE Wind 3-7 mph Turning to S & Increasing to 15-25 mph.

68F/62...Nov. 3, AM Showers/Storms with MARGINAL RISK parameters, Then Partly Cloudy with W Wind 20-30 mph & Temperatures Falling from 63-70 AM to 54-60 PM.

52/44...Nov. 4, Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 15-25 mph.

60/37...Nov. 5, Decreasing Clouds, W Wind 5-10 mph.

70/51...Nov. 6, Few Scattered Showers & Storms with MARGINAL RISK parameters, SW Wind 20-35 mph.

45/41...Nov. 7, Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy, NW Wind 20-35 mph.

50/30...Nov. 8, Partly Cloudy, N Wind 10-15 mph.

57/32...Nov. 9, Partly Cloudy, SE Wind 15-25 mph.

50/32...Nov. 10, Showers Then Colder with Mostly Cloudy Skies, NW Wind 20-30 mph.

45/30...Nov. 11, Partly Cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.

55/26...Nov. 12, Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, E 5-10 mph.

58/36...Nov. 13, Partly Cloudy, SE 5-15 mph.

67/50...Nov. 14, Partly Cloudy, S Wind 20-30 mph.

70/57...Nov. 15, Showers & Storms Possible (MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK?), S 20-35 mph.

47F/33...Nov. 16, AM Showers, Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-40 mph.

40/29...Nov. 17, Partly Cloudy, W 10-20 mph.

50/25...Nov. 18, Sunny, SW Wind 5-10 mph.

It is possible that we do not drop below 20 in November.....it is POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER, once winter roars in during early December, it will really roar in, it still appears with below to well-below normal temperatures & snow risk. There are signs we will not budge out of that pattern totally until after Christmas, then we have a 3-week long wet, mild stretch with a lack of snowfall.

West Lafayette
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 26°
Kokomo
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 22°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 23°
Fowler
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 26°
Williamsport
Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 28°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 24°
Frankfort
Mostly Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 24°
Delphi
Mostly Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 28°
Monticello
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 28°
Logansport
Mostly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 23°
More active weather headed our way...
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