October 18, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest short-, medium- & long-range forecast update...

Posted: Oct 18, 2021 12:24 PM
Updated: Oct 18, 2021 5:02 PM

So far, October 2021 is the warmest on record with a mean temperature of 64.8.  Given the current forcasts for the rest of the month, this will likely be near, if not the warmest October in the 1879-present records at Purdue University & the Purdue University Airport.

1.  64.8  2021

2.  62.5  1947

3.  62.2  1971

4.  62.0  1900

5.  61.0  1920

Note all of the near/record warmth night & day (yellow, orange & red to magenta dots with black dot with "x" would be an all-time record or tie of a record for warm high or low temperature for the month of October) in the eastern U.S. over the past week (note how unusually cold California & the Desert Southwest has been with so many record lows!):

Temperatures have been right on par in long-range outlooks, but what has surprised me is the rain in the October 2-16 period.  It all seems tied to the wet phase 6 of the MJO.  This time of year, when the MJO goes to solid, dominant Phase 6 & all other factors & influences are squashed by it, wetness dominates in our region.

Prior to that, solid, dry Phase 5 dominated.

We have a few more systems now through mid-November with some rainfall, but we should have lulls to continue to get harvest in & get wheat planted.

Solid Phase 5 & 6....

1.  Typical Precipitation Anomalies                                                  2.  Typical Temperature Anomalies

We go from solid Phase 6 to neutral that lasts late October & into November, so the strong MJO influence here in October wanes & other players on the court take over.  It is like if Trevion on Purdue Basketball completely dominated to make it an inside game to tip the game direction & then he is neutralized.  Which player & mode emerges?

In this case, it will be traditional La Nina & southeastern ridge. We will jump into La Nina Modoki by late November & weakening of Polar Vortex from the very early, deep Siberian snowpack rapidly, resulting in sudden potent winter weather.

________________________________________________________________________

After 36-42 Sunday morning & 36-44 this morning, we hit the 70-75 range today.

Lows This Morning:

We are still easily 2 weeks behind schedule with the cool Fall weather.  About 95% of the area saw their first 40 of the Fall Sunday morning or this morning.

This is easily 2-3 weeks behind schedule for the first 40:

Typically, we would have seen our first 36 already 1.5-2 weeks ago.  Not so this year!

We also saw a record low number of mornings below 50 to October 15 with only 3 when the old record was 6 set in 1931!

Highs Today:

Tonight will not be as cool with lows 42-48 with clear skies.  Tomorrow looks to turn partly cloudy as clouds come in from the west, dimming & blurring away sun off & one.  Southwest wind 10-20 mph & highs 71-75 are expected.

After 47-54 Tuesday night, Wednesday will feature partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy with south winds 15-30 mph.  A few isolated to spotty showers/t'showers may make in here by evening after highs in the 70s.

This will give way to a mild, breezy Wednesday night with lows in the 50s.  I didn't go a low of 60 because the rain will fall through layers of dry air at the onset, which will be a cooling process dominating the warm air advection of the southerly wind.  Lows 54-58 are likely.

Some scattered showers & storms (40-45% coverage) are expected late Wednesday to Wednesday night.  System is speeding up, so it should be out of here Thursday morning.  However, low cloud deck in the PM Thursday may produced isolated showers & sprinkles (see below image in text).

As for Thursday, after an isolated morning shower, skies should turn mostly sunny to partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy to cloudy as low stratocumulus rotate in from the northwest.  An isolated shower or two or sprinkle is possible with this cloud deck.  Highs should reach 62-68, then fall to 56-63 in the afternoon as wind turns from the west to the northwest & increases to 20-30 mph.

After 41-45 Friday morning with lots of clouds, Friday should be partly to mostly cloudy with highs 54-58 with northwest wind 20-30 mph.

Some partial clearing & decrease in the wind will result in lows of 36-40 Friday night.

Saturday looks crisp, cool, bright & Fall-like with sunny to mostly sunny skies (some flat cumulus humilis clouds, mainly in our northeastern & eastern counties), north winds 10-20 mph & highs only 54-59.

Frost is likely Saturday night with lows 31-35.

Sunday will feature increasing high & mid clouds with east winds 10-20 mph as warm front approaches.  Highs of 58-63 are expected.  Showers are possible by Sunday evening & Sunday night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

As for Monday, warm front will stall southwest of our area.  It looks mostly cloudy, but mostly dry with east winds 15-25 mph & highs 60-64.

It appears warm front will then move well north of our area Tuesday.

We will be in the warm sector Tuesday & Wednesday, it appears, resulting in warm, strong southerly winds & highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s to 60.

Showers & storms return next Thursday with risk of isolated severe storms (potential MARGINAL RISK for severe weather or Level 1 of 5) as potential embedded squall line moves through the area.

Risk of at least 1 tornado within 110 km of a grid point (per CIPS analog analysis & based on similar systems at a similar time of year over the past 40 years) is south of our area with this system at the moment.

High/Low That Morning...Date, Day, Conditions

72/38...Oct. 18, Today, Sunny, SW Wind 5-15 mph.

73/45...Oct.19, Tue.  Becoming Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 10-20 mph.

77/54...Oct. 20, Wed. Increasing Clouds, Isolated Showers/T'Showers Late (25%), S 15-30 mph

64F/57...Oct. 21, Thu.  Overnight Scattered Showers & Storms, Early AM Shower, Then Clearing, Then Clouding Up with a Couple Isolated Showers/Sprinkles, WSW to W 10-20 mph to NW 20-30 mph.  Temperatures Falling Into the 50s to 60 by Late Afternoon.

57/43...Oct. 22, Fri. Partly to Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 20-30 mph.

58/33...Oct. 23, Sat. AM Frost, Mostly Sunny, N Wind 10-20 mph

61/38...Oct. 24, Sun. Clouding Up, Few PM Showers, E Wind 10-20 mph.

63/51...Oct. 25, Mon. Overnight Showers & a Few Storms, Mostly Cloudy Day, E 15-25 mph turning to SE after 6 p.m.

75/57...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 15-25 mph.

79/60...Oct. 27, Wed. Partly Cloudy, S Wind 15-30 mph.

74/63...Oct. 28, Thu. Showers & Storms Likely (MARGINAL RISK parameters), S Wind 20-30 mph Becoming W to NW 20-35 mph.

57/43...Oct. 29, Fri. Partly to Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-30 mph.

66/36...Oct. 30, Sat. Mostly Sunny, SW 10 mph.

68/45...Oct. 31, Sun. Increasing Clouds, S 15-25 mph

72/61...Nov. 1, AM Showers, Then Partly to Mostly Cloudy, S to SE 10-20 mph Decreasing to 5-10 mph.

76/58...Nov. 2, AM Fog, Then Partly to Mostly Cloudy, SE Wind 3-7 mph Turning to S & Increasing to 15-25 mph.

68F/62...Nov. 3, AM Showers/Storms with MARGINAL RISK parameters, Then Partly Cloudy with W Wind 20-30 mph & Temperatures Falling from 63-70 AM to 54-60 PM.

52/44...Nov. 4, Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 15-25 mph.

60/36...Nov. 5, Decreasing Clouds, W Wind 5-10 mph.

70/51...Nov. 6, Few Scattered Showers & Storms with MARGINAL RISK parameters, SW Wind 20-35 mph.

45/41...Nov. 7, Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy, NW Wind 20-35 mph.

50/30...Nov. 8, Partly Cloudy, N Wind 10-15 mph.

57/32...Nov. 9, Partly Cloudy, SE Wind 15-25 mph.

50/32...Nov. 10,  Showers Then Colder with Mostly Cloudy Skies, NW Wind 20-30 mph.

45/30...Nov. 11,  Partly Cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.

55/26...Nov. 12,  Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, E 5-10 mph.

58/36...Nov. 13,  Partly Cloudy, SE 5-15 mph.

67/50...Nov. 14,  Partly Cloudy, S Wind 20-30 mph.

70/57...Nov. 15,  Showers & Storms Possible (MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK?), S 20-35 mph.

47F/33...Nov. 16, AM Showers, Mostly Cloudy, NW 20-40 mph.

40/29...Nov. 17,  Partly Cloudy, W 10-20 mph.

50/25...Nov. 18, Sunny, SW Wind 5-10 mph.

It is possible that we do not drop below 20 in November.....it is POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER, once winter roars in during early December, it will really roar in, it still appears with below to well-below normal temperatures & snow risk.  There are signs we will not budge out of that pattern totally until after Christmas, then we have a 3-week long wet, mild stretch with a lack of snowfall.

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 24°
Kokomo
Clear
33° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 22°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 24°
Fowler
Mostly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 24°
Williamsport
Cloudy
35° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 27°
Crawfordsville
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 22°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 22°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 26°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 26°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 20°
More active weather headed our way...
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