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October 17, 10 PM Forecast Update: Now-December Outlook & How About Some Some Deep Winter Analogging

Let dig deep into the outlook again today to December & then do some analogging for the winter again.

Posted: Oct 17, 2018 5:40 PM
Updated: Oct 17, 2018 10:57 PM

It has been the coldest first half of October on record for the Northern Plains.  Most areas west of the Mississippi River have averaged colder than normal.  Here, our warmest start since 2007 has faded quite a bit as the below normal temperatures continue.

It was a windy & cool, but bright day with highs 50-55.

Upper 20s to low 30s tonight with a heavy frost as winds go calm!

Thursday is going to be a nice day!  Lots of sunshine & highs 54-58 & not much wind with all of that sunshine will make it feel good!

Normal high is mid 60s, however, so we will still be running below normal.

It still looks like we will cloud up Friday & see some scattered showers nearing midday & then right through the afternoon.  They should become isolated by evening.

Highs will run 53-59 with breezy conditions from the southwest. 

Rainfall amounts will be light at less than 0.10".

Frenzy weather looks a bit breezy, mostly cloudy to cloudy with a few isolated lingering showers & temperatures in the 50s.

After a shower or two early Saturday, the sun should appear & it warm up with gusty west winds.  We should hit a high in the 50s.

However, by afternoon, it should cloud up with a few showers & falling temperatures.  As temperatures cool off aloft pretty rapidly, some flakes/sleet may mix.  Winds should be strong from the northwest up to 32 mph.

Temperatures will drop to 40-45 by late afternoon & into early evening as any spotty showers exit.

Temperatures will drop to near 32 by early Sunday morning.  With decreasing clouds, but still windy conditions, highs Sunday should run in the 40s to 50.

Presently all of next week looks dry with frequent bouts of gusty winds & highs in the 50s & 60s early in the week, followed by 40s & 50s mid to late week.  Most of the nights will feature lows near 30 to the 30s

A massive uptick in fall color should occur next week.  Peak will be coming on quickly by late next week & that next weekend.

Temperatures look to largely remain below normal for the rest of the month.  We may see a surge of a couple days exceed it slightly as we approach Halloween.  Otherwise, plunges of cold & freezing & largely dry, windy weather will tend to dominate.  This will send a lot of leaves down after a quick peak in fall color!

It still looks like it should warm in the early half of November with temperatures shooting up above normal.  Temperatures may peak near/at mid-month with wetter, stormy pattern.  Severe risk is still possible.

Much colder weather with above normal snowfall still looks possible after that with some morning in the single digits & teens!

My winter forecast is out, but lets analog the years that are similar to this one.  Granted, previous years may not behave quite like now given the +400 ppm CO2 we have, but it gives us a good idea of what may unfold.

I will have the FINAL winter forecast out soon. 

All data points to colder & snowier than normal winter.  Combine a late-developing El Nino Modoki, unusually warm water with ridging in Alaska & Bering Sea area, an absence of sunspots, & a favorable cold pattern with unusually high amounts of snow in southern Canada already becoming established all points to rough winter.  All previous winter that match this one were colder & snowier.  2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 are all good recent matches. 

Others:  1904-05, 1911-12, 1914-15, 1957-58, 1962-63, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78

So, here are the analogs for 2018-19 winter:

December Temperatures:

December Precipitation:

January Temperatures:

January Precipitation:

February Temperatures:

February Precipitation:

A Gaze to Spring!

March Temperatures:

March Precipitation:

Overall Winter Temperatures:

Overall Winter Precipitation:

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