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October 17, 5:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the outlook now to late November.

Posted: Oct 17, 2019 1:18 PM
Updated: Oct 17, 2019 5:53 PM

Lows this morning ran 32-41....coldest where the greatest amount of clearing occurred for the longest period of time, warmest where the clouds hung on the longest.

Highs today reache 54-59.

Patchy shallow dense fog is possible later tonight to early Friday morning, specifically in low-lying areas, river & creek bottoms & around rivers, lakes, ponds & creeks.  Frost will be widespread as well.

Lows will drop to 30-33.

With increasing high/mid clouds tomorrow dimming sun after a mostly sunny morning, highs Friday should run 60-65 northeast to southwest over the area (with a south-southeast wind developing at 8-13 mph).

Skies should clear Friday evening-night with lows 35-44 east to west.

After a mostly sunny to sunny start Saturday, clouds will be on the increase.  With breezy conditions (southeast to south-southwest 15-25 mph), highs will run 67-72.

A couple isolated showers/storms are possible late in the day to early Saturday night.

Tropical system will make landfall this weekend on the Gulf Coast.

This will take up much of the moisture that would have streamed northward to our area this weekend.

That is why any showers/storms Saturday PM-night should be isolated (20%).

Western Gulf will be re-invigorated with moisture to supply strong storm system Sunday-Tuesday as tropical remnants from the Pacific feed northeastward & deep moisture from tropical disturbances feed northward from the Bay of Campeche.

So, band of rain & embedded line of storms will line up from Texas to Great Lakes.

Band of rain with broken embedded line of storms will pass here Monday.

An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out, main threat being wind.

Note the robust severe risk Okalhoma to Texas, but also some higher risk probabilities even reaching eastern Iowa & Illinois in the high shear environment.

Here, MARGINAL RISK of severe seems like at the moment.  If CAPE increases a bit more, SLIGHT RISK parameters would develop.

Storm Prediction Center SLIGHT RISK areas forecast right now for Sunday & Monday...................

Cooler weather will follow system.

Secondary cold front Thursday of next week will usher in even colder weather the end of next week & next weekend with killing 20s freeze. 

Looks drier than normal right up to Halloween (& colder than normal).

Above normal temperatures should dominate right after Halloween through early November.

Rainfall should go above normal for that period.

Cold upper trough in West, warm upper ridge in the Southeast & us in active storm track shows up well.

Two periods of some severe risk in our area (looks isolated severe at the moment):  November 5-6 & around November 13-15 period.

Much colder weather should follow in latter November with below normal temperatures.

Some flurries may even occur behind the front as the cold rushes in on strong northwest winds.

Some very minor snows are possible in latter November, but precipitation looks below normal with the cold weather.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Overcast
22° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 9°
Feels Like: 7°
Kokomo
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27° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 11°
Feels Like: 16°
Rensselaer
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Hi: 30° Lo: 9°
Feels Like: 8°
Fowler
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Hi: 29° Lo: 8°
Feels Like: 8°
Williamsport
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Hi: 31° Lo: 9°
Feels Like: 7°
Crawfordsville
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Hi: 32° Lo: 10°
Feels Like: 5°
Frankfort
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26° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 9°
Feels Like: 12°
Delphi
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21° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 10°
Feels Like: 6°
Monticello
Overcast
21° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 9°
Feels Like: 6°
Logansport
Overcast
27° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 10°
Feels Like: 17°
Icy roads tonight as temperatures approach record cold levels.
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