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October 16, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots to talk about!

Posted: Oct 16, 2019 1:00 PM
Updated: Oct 16, 2019 4:30 PM

It will remain a dreary day with just a few sprinkles, patchy drizzle to a couple isolated light showers around (mainly in east & northeast).

We are on a windy streak.  4 of the past 5 days have featured gusts of greater than 30 mph over the area, including our WLFI observation site.

These strong northwest winds will diminish to 5-10 mph tonight, but not go completely calm.  Also, it appears that these low clouds will be stubborn to completely clear the area, so part of the night will feature mostly cloudy skies.  I can't even rule out a couple of sprinkles in the early part of the night.

So, I upped our projected overnight lows from clear, light to calm wind with frost & freezing at 28-32 to partly to mostly cloudy with light breeze & lows 32-38.  Areas that see a greater chunk of clearing by early morning will drop to 32.

Surface high should drift right overhead late tomorrow-tomorrow night.

So, Thursday should go mostly sunny (highs 53-57) with northwest wind 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5 mph late, followed by frost & freezing Thursday night.

Winds should be calm to light out of the east with lows 28-34.

Friday looks mostly sunny to sunny with highs 61-66 as wind turns to the southeast then south-southeast at 10-15 mph.

It appears low in Gulf of Mexico may become a tropical entity with a landfall Saturday between Mobile, Alabama & Appalachicola, Florida.

We will continue to monitor model data on whether it will be a tropical storm or low-end hurricane.

This will have a substantial impact on our weekend weather (for the better!).

This tropical system will nearly completely gut the moisture supply from the Gulf right up to Sunday.

So, it appears Saturday & Sunday will end up mostly dry (20% coverage of showers/storms Saturday) with sunshine & highs 70-77 & lows in the 40s & 50s (not 60 or 60s due to lack of clouds & us not getting the really strong flow from the Gulf of Mexico).

Prior to this new development, looked like the Bermuda high would pull deep moisture from the Gulf northward, bringing us some showers & storms at times Saturday-Sunday night.

Bermuda high is a bit farther eastward & pulling this likely tropical system into the Southeast & even as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Western Gulf should see recovery & open up for business Sunday PM, but it will actually be a Pacific tropical system near Baja California that will re-invigorate the moisture supply (that will have been gutted).

This will feed another Powerhouse autumn storm with high winds of Wind Adviory to High Wind Warning threshold over a large swath of the Western & central U.S.

Heavy, wind-driven snow many fall Colorado to western Nebraska.  Another band may develop in northwestern Minnesota & or part of the Dakotas.

SLIGHT RISK severe probabilities are up from southwest Missouri to Texas Sunday evening-night.

A good amount of real estate has severe weather risk from this system.

Worst of it is in that SPC 15% zone.

I think that that corridor could end up in ENHANCED if current parameters hold.  SLIGHT may extend into Arkansas & southern Missouri.  Pocket of SLIGHT may end up in southern Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama.

It is possible that a SLIGHT pocket may make it to eastern Iowa.  Rest looks MARGINAL RISK (including us), unless we see greater CAPE into our area.

So, a couple isolated severe gusts are possible in broken line of storms embedded in the band of rainfall Monday, most likely late morning to midday.

Still looks like a 1-2" rain.  If not for Gulf moisture recovery & Pacific tropical system, I would go less.

The front shows up well with the temperature anomalies Monday morning.

Colder weather will follow system.

A re-enforcing shot of cold should arrive Wednesday with cold front, followed by a clipper to our northeast Friday, which will pull a cold front to only re-enforce the colder weather.

Multiple nights of 20s are possible later next week to that next weekend (weekend of October 26-27). 

This cold could reach all the way to Cuba & the Yucatan. 

The upper 20s could go all the way to northern Alabama & Georgia with the 32-degree line to northern Florida.

The 45-degree line could make it to Orlando with the 55-degree line to Miami & the 50 line to Lak Okeechobee.

Gainesville & Ocala, Florida could drop to 35-40.

We look to bottom out at 24-27.

Watch as we get right up to Halloween.........the warmth races in on strong southwest winds.

Early half of November looks warmer & wetter than normal with some severe risk here centered around Noveber 5-6 & in the November 10-15 period.

Looks cold & snowy in the West & northern Plains & very warm & quite dry in the Southeast with us in the middle with the overall warmth & wetness.

Indeed, temperatures will fluctuate some, but the warmth will dominate.

Latter half of November looks colder to much colder than normal with some very minor snows & temperatures more like late December to January.  The Arctic air should really open up from Canada as strong ridging develops in western Canada & through the Pacific Northwest.

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West Lafayette
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Warmer, dry weather is ahead for the weekend.
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