We have turned the tide on the rainfall with pretty first half of October. We have been right in the sweet spot for getting the rainfall. Areas that have been dry are getting soakers in the Midwest after a long, hot, dry summer.
Spring began early & other than the fluke late April record snow, above normal temperatures & below normal rainfall have dominated. However, we have played our cards just right, as just when it is getting into Moderate Drought or Abnormally Dry, we get a rain to get us through.
This July-September period is 3rd warmest on record for the U.S. & we had our hottest summer since 2020 & before that 2011. Before that it was the hottest since 1995, followed by 1988. 2021 also saw the first 100 since 2012 both at the Purdue Airport & Purdue Agronomy Farm sites. The Purdue Ag Farm site saw very little rain May 29-June 24, as did the airport & our WLFI site.
We were on our way to 100 at our WLFI site when a shower passed at 96.6 & we never got back above 95.
That said, we finally have a seasonable weekend with trees that are 2 weeks behind in terms of Fall foliage. Budding, blossoming & foliation was 2 weeks AHEAD of schedule this spring. I have never seen trees so late to change color, even growing up 40 miles southwest of Bloomington, Indiana. Even there, we were never so green this late in the Fall with memories all the way back to 1985 there.
Round of rainfall & some storms tonight with rising temperatures in our southeast will give way to a lull, then some more scattered showers & storms tomorrow. There is the risk of isolated severe storm or two in our southeastern counties 7 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Threat would be isolated severe gust &/or isolated brief EF0-EF1 tornado.
After second lull, just some showers & windy (N to NW wind 15-32 mph), chilly weather will roll in tomorrow evening-night.
Temperatures will drop into the 50s by tomorrow evening.
With clearing, we should drop to 42-48 by Saturday morning with northwest wind 10-15 mph.
Another 0.30" northwest to 0.50-1.75" of rainfall is expected over the southeastern half of the viewing area.
Weekend looks great! It will be windy & cool Saturday with 57-64 with lows Saturday night 38-42.
Sunday will have less wind, but it will be nice with 64-69, followed by 40-46 Sunday night.
Monday & Tuesday look fine with wind turning to the southwest with highs 67-72 Monday & 72-77 Tuesday.
Wednesday looks partly cloudy with highs 75-80, followed by 77-82 Thursday after warm lows of 58-64 with southwest winds 20-35 mph.
Some scattered storms are possible Thursday. Lack of instability & good moisture is an issue for any severe, despite strong winds fields & shear. Just enough instability & moisture may lead to MARGINAL RISK.
Peak coverage of storms should be 40-45%
Strong west to northwest winds 15-30 mph should follow & after lows 45-50 Thursday night, highs of 65-70 are expected a week from this Friday.
High/Low That Morning...Date, Day, Conditions
67/47...Oct. 22, Fri. Partly Cloudy, W to NW Wind 15-30 mph.
68/47...Oct. 23, Sat. Partly Cloudy, W Wind 20-40 mph
57/41...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.
58/32...Oct. 25, Mon. Partly Cloudy, NW 10-20 mph.....Record: 80-1963.
64/32...Oct. 26, Tue. Partly Cloudy, SE 5 mph to 10-15 mph
66/50...Oct. 27, Wed. Mostly Cloudy, Few Showers/Storms Possible (35%), SSE 20-30 mph.
68/55...Oct. 28, Thu. Mostly Cloudy, Few Showers/Storms Possible (35%), SSE 10-20 mph.
65/53...Oct. 29, Fri. Partly Cloudy, NW 15-25 mph.
58/37...Oct. 30, Sat. Partly Cloudy, NW 10-15 mph
Warming back to 70s in early November with strong southwest winds.
Storms possible around November 4-5 period & November 14-15.
Cooler (highs 40s & 50s with lows 20s & 30s) around November 6-7 & 9-10 & 16-18.