October 12, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest forecast & outlook for the next few weeks!

Posted: Oct 12, 2019 5:39 PM
Updated: Oct 12, 2019 6:41 PM

This morning saw the first light freeze & decent frost of the season for much of the area.

My tomatoes fared okay, but the green pepper & eggplants were burned & the zucchini was burned pretty good & many are now black & wilted. 

It was a windy, cool day with highs today at only 52-56, but at least there was abundant sunshine!

Tonight will turn partly cloudy for a bit with lows 33-38 with a southwest wind 10-20 mph dropping wind chills down to 26-32.

Tomorrow will feature lots of sunshine, but there will be some cumulus clouds around at times, especially in the north & northwest.  Skies may turn partly to mostly cloudy in the north & northwest by late in the day.

Winds will be strong from the southwest at 15-30 mph (then turn to west) with warmer highs of 57-65.  Dry secondary cold front will pass, so highs should occur midday to early afternoon, then begin to fall a bit.

Lows tomorrow night should drop to 31-35.

Monday looks sunny early, then some increasing clouds with highs 54-60.

Winds, westerly initially, will turn to the southwest at 8-15 mph.  Wind will then quickly turn to the east then east-southeast Monday night with lows 41-46.

Deeper moisture from Pacific tropical storm with deep Gulf moisture should get tied up in the southern U.S. Tuesday.  So, they are looking out very welcome, soaking rainfall.

Here, totals of 0.25" or less are likely Tuesday as some scattered showers & a few t'showers pass with the cold front.  Highs should warm to 64-70 with lots of clouds & gusty south wind at 15-30 mph.

After some clearing behind the system initially early Wednesday morning, low clouds should pivot in & reside for much of the day.  This will keep highs at only 47-53 with a strong northwest wind.  So, Wednesday looks a bit dreary & chilly.

As skies clear & winds diminish Wednesday night, lows of 27-32 are possible with widespread frost & freezing.

Thursday looks like a mix of lots of sun, but also some increasing high & mid clouds with highs 54-58 with an east-southeast breeze.

Powerhouse storm will take shape in the Plains next weekend.

Here, looks like warm front should pass northward through area early Friday.

So, Friday will be much warmer at 67-73 with a strong southerly wind.  A few isolated showers/storms are possible on leading edge of strong surge of warm air & higher dew point advection.

Front will try to slide back southward Saturday with highs in the 70s after a very mild Friday night of lows near 60.

With this, some showers & storms are possible, mainly Saturday PM.  Parameters support risk of an isolated severe storm or two.

Front should move back north Sunday & several rounds of showers/storms should pass Sunday-Monday with windy, humid conditions. 

Dry time with some sun will occur between rounds.

Note the surge of warmth moving waaaaaayyyy north.  We will see highs in the 70s (80 if sunshine can really get through the clouds in one of those dry spells) & lows at record warm levels in the 60s. 

Main corridor of SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK for severe weather will likely reside Iowa & Illinois to Missouri, eastern Kansas, Oklahoma & Arkansas Sunday-Monday.

Our parameters are currently in the MARGINAL to SLIGHT range for Sunday-Monday.

You can see the risk migrate eastward with time late Saturday night to Sunday morning.  Yellow & orange is higher risk for severe than lighter & darker green.  This composite takes into account the shear & instability to pout out the "Supercell Composite Parameter".

1-2" of rainfall is possible Friday-Monday with isolated amounts up to 2".

After that system, wow do we have some cold nights!  Widespread 20s are possible with daily highs in the 40s & 50s.

However, we quickly warm up after that to more 70s with rain/storms, locally-heavy rainfall & some severe risk at times as we near Halloween & get into early November.

Cold snap should follow with December- to January-like temperatures & even some very minor snowfall as we get to & past mid-November.

Should warm up above normal again as we move into early December.

Much colder weather should arrive mid-December, but I currently do not expect the shoveling snows to get in here until just after Christmas (continued basis on analog data).

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West Lafayette
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Below normal temperatures & patches of frost in the north & northeast.
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