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October 12, 11 PM Weather Forecast

Some more nice, windy, dry days ahead followed by a big cool-down.

Posted: Oct 12, 2020 5:57 PM
Updated: Oct 13, 2020 3:35 PM

Highs today reached 70-77.

A band of showers & storms passed this afternoon in the 2-7 p.m. time frame over the viewing area.  A couple broken lines of storms were embedded in the back that produced wind gusts of 40-55 mph.  I did not receive any hail reports, but it appeared that pea to nickel hail fell in far northeast White to far southwestern Fulton counties & pea hail occurred near Winamac.

The radar image shows segments in the two lines that look like "dog legs" & some exhibited "kidney bean" shapes.  This is typical of a highly-sheared, low CAPE environment.  If we would have had more cold air aloft & more CAPE, this would likely have been a severe weather outbreak, given the shear & dynamics with the negatively-tilted upper trough swinging through the area.

The one Severe T'Storm Warning was for northeast White to far northwest Cass, southeast Pulaski & Fulton counties.  This is the storm that was responsible for the 51 mph wind gust 3 E Fowler & the 53 mph gust near Athens.

The measured gust of 51 mph 5 W Delphi was from a "dog leg" in the line.

Winds gusted +35 mph also for a time behind the two lines in just a few showers & the clouds.

The showers & storms moved so quickly, rainfall totals were only 0.05-0.27" at the various observations sites in the area.  Only one site saw totals exceed 0.27".  That was the Peru Municipal Airport with 0.52".  However, that was quite a bit higher than any other total in that area (& Doppler estimates for that location look lower than that), so I am not 100% covinced that automatic rain gauge was working properly.

Tuesday & Wednesday morning look chilly with some patchy fog & lows near 38 to 44, but the afternoon looks windy & warm with sunny to mostly sunny skies.  Winds may gust 30-40 mph from the southwest to south-southwest on both days.

Any small amount of water we received today will evaporate rapidly with dew points in the 30s with such wind both days.

70-77 will occur for highs tomorrow & 75-80 is likely Wednesday.

Cold front passes with strong, gusty west to northwest winds Thursday with a couple isolated showers Thursday morning.  Clearing will likely follow with highs 58-65.

Friday looks mostly sunny with highs 56-62.  Friday night lows of 31-36 are likely with partly cloudy skies northwest & north & clear skies south.  It may end up cooler in the south than the north due to the clouds.  Frost is possible (most widespread in the southern half it appears at the moment).

Saturday looks mostly sunny with  57-63, followed by 33-38 Saturday night.

With strong southwest winds, we look to warm to 64-69 Sunday (46-51 Sunday night) with increasing clouds, followed by a few isolated showers with gusty west winds on Monday (highs 57-64).  This will be the case as another cold front pivots through.

Lows Monday night should drop to 34-39.

To give you an idea of the upcoming trends:

Greater Lafayette: AM Low/PM High....Conditions:

Friday, October 16: 36/58....Mostly Sunny

Saturday, October 17: 32/59....Mostly Sunny

Sunday, October 18: 35/67....Increasing Clouds & Windy

Monday, October 19: 48/60....25% Showers.....Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy

Tuesday, October 20: 42/60....Partly Cloudy & Breezy

Wednesday, October 21: 32/61....Mostly Sunny

Thursday, October 22: 36/70....Mostly Sunny & Windy

Friday, October 23: 50/76....Mostly Sunny & Windy

Saturday, October 24: 60/77....Partly Cloudy & Windy

Sunday, October 25: 57/65....30% Showers/T'Showers AM, then Partly Cloudy & Breezy

Monday, October 26: 38/64....Mostly Sunny

Tuesday, October 27: 36/68....Mostly Sunny

Wednesday, October: 28 41/68....Mostly Sunny

Thursday, October 29: 41/72....Partly Cloudy, Windy

Friday, October 30: 55/72....Mostly Cloudy, 45% Showers/Storms, Windy

Saturday, October 31: 47/56....Partly Cloudy, Windy

Sunday, November 1: 31/58....Mostly Sunny

Monday, November 2: 42/65....Increasing Clouds & Breezy

Tuesday, November 3: 56/71....50% Showers/Storms, Windy.....Isolated to Scattered Severe?

Wednesday, November 4: 45/54....30% Showers, Mostly Cloudy, Then Clearing.....Windy

Thursday, November 5: 34/60....Partly Cloudy & Breezy

Friday, November 6: 49/67....Becoming Mostly Cloudy, Windy

Saturday, November 7: 56/71....30% Showers/Storms, Mostly Cloudy, Windy

Sunday, November 8: 56/71....60% Showers/Storms, Windy.....Isolated to Scattered Severe?

Monday, November 9: 38/47....Mostly Cloudy, Windy

Tuesday, November 10: 42/62....30% Showers/Storms, Mostly Cloudy, Windy

November-March 2020-21 looks like this............

Temperature anomalies overall:

Warmer than normal East, colder than normal Northwest to Northern Plains.

January looks like the coldest month, but we should still run above normal temperature-wise when all is said & done.

Remember....................the fly in the ointment is IF the La Nina turns into a more Modoki-type (rather than traditional), we will see more of the cold anomalies sneak farther southeastward toward our area.

We will also monitor all of the other players on the court that work in tandem with the expected moderate La Nina.

Precipitation looks above normal here with more rain & ice than snow.  Snowfall looks below normal.

The graphic below says "Winter 2020-21", but just consider this November-March 2020-21.

The Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies to Northern Plains & western Great Lakes look very snowy. 

California through the Deep South looks dry, droughty & warmer than normal.

Meanwhile, we look wet with elevated cool-season flood risk (as well as elevated cool-season severe weather risk).

In trying to pluck similar years, these are the overall anomalies for the November-March period.  The pattern shows up.

However, I think the above normal precipitation area in the Ohio Valley will be more expansive in 2020-21 with higher anomalies Ohio Valley to Tennessee Valley, Midwest & then over the western Great Lakes to the Northern Plains.

Analog temperature anomalies for November-March 2020-21:

Analog precipitation anomalies for November-March 2020-21:

Looking to next spring overall (March-April-May) after looking at the overall November-March season, the pattern looks similar.

This is good for the most active severe weather spring possible since 2011 here.

Looks warmer than normal overall here with an earlier start to spring in March.  Even February shows likelihood of some nice spring surges.

The Pacific Northwest to Northern Rockies & Northern Plains look cold, snowy & wet with a late start to spring.

Looks wet here with above normal severe weather risk. 

The flood risk is also higher here for Spring 2021.

When we analog this Spring (based on similar years in the past) the pattern does show up pretty well.

Temperature anomalies (we are overall warmer):

Rainfall anomalies (we are wet!):

I went ahead & took the same years into Summer 2021.  However, the drivers of Summer will be different than the drivers of Fall-Winter-Spring 2020-21.  So, take this with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT.  I will be digging into next Summer with time & researching what players will dominate the pattern.  This is NOT an outlook I am making for next Summer.

With potential of La Nina waning & the sea surface temperatures developing now & into winter & spring changing, Summer seems unclear at the moment.  However, it will become more apparent with time.

Analog for those years shows normal to slightly-above normal temperatures with variable rainfall here.  Analog shows tendency for droughty conditions in northeastern counties & wetter conditions in the southern half (& normal elsewhere).

Temperature anomalies:

Rainfall anomalies.

West Lafayette
Overcast
44° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 38°
Kokomo
Overcast
47° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 43°
Rensselaer
Overcast
37° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 32°
Fowler
Overcast
37° wxIcon
Hi: 42° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 32°
Williamsport
Overcast
39° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 32°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
40° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 40°
Frankfort
Overcast
47° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 41°
Delphi
Overcast
44° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 38°
Monticello
Scattered Clouds
43° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 37°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
43° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 37°
More rainfall ahead.
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