October 11, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Forecast of temperature swings.......

Posted: Oct 11, 2019 1:49 PM
Updated: Oct 11, 2019 5:25 PM

High today will go down as 71 at West Lafayette as temperatures are now in free-fall.  At the station temp dropped from 68 to 59 quickly with passage of the cold front.

As of 2 p.m. front is lined up just east of Route 75 in our viewing area with temperatures varying from 49 in western Benton County to 71 in Howard & Miami counties.

Winds kick up as the front passes.  I just noticed a private, well-placed weather station with wind sustained at 22 mph at Galveston as front passes.  Sustained winds of 25 mph noted with gusts to 35 mph near Rochester on private station.  Some gusts to 40 mph are possible.

Some rain will continue with the continued temperature drop through the afternoon & into early evening before tapering.

It will be a cold, blustery Frenzy as rainfall gradually tapers.  Temperatures will drop to 40-45 with wind chills in the 30s.

Lows of 29-34 are likely tonight resulting in widespread light freezing over a chunk of the area.

Bring your most tender plants in or cover them.  Growing tips & some tender leaves will be burned.

With a southwest breeze, wind chills will drop to 24-28 with skies becoming clear.

With lots of sunshine (cumulus northwest counties), windy conditions (from southwest) highs Saturday will run 51-56 with lows Saturday night (with some cloudiness) at 33-39.

Sunday looks warmer with breezy conditions (from southwest), sunshine (but more in the way of cumulus clouds, especially in our northern & northwestern counties) with highs 58-65.

Lows Sunday night should run 32-36 as winds diminish after secondary (but dry) cold front passes.

Monday looks sunny initially, followed by some increasing high/mid clouds with the sun & highs 55-62.

With mostly cloudy skies & breezy conditions (from southwest), highs Tuesday should warm to 60-65 with some scattered showers & a few t'showers (40%).

Rainfall should run less than 0.25".

Wednesday looks windy & much cooler.

With a few showers in the morning, the afternoon looks dry with lots of clouds & highs 47-54.

Skies should clear & winds calm Wednesday night, leading to lows of 28-32 with potential of a pretty heavy frost.

The surface high should be centered nearly right on top of, resulting in conditions for ideal cooling & widespread frost formation.

It looks to suddenly warm up rapidly with a strong south to southwest wind late next week as warm front races northward & surface high moves rapidly to the east toward Bermuda.

This very sudden change is the result of strong upper trough & powerful storm system deepening in the Plains.

Heavy snowfall to near/blizzard conditions will develop of the Rockies & move into the Plains.  Denver is looking at a potentially big snow.  Heavy snow will then transition to Nebraska & the Dakotas.  Some may fall as far south as Kansas.

We will end up with periodic showers/storms with humid, windy, warm conditions with mostly cloudy skies & highs in the 70s & lows in the unusually warm 60s.

Strong cold front should pass either Sunday night or Monday morning.  Note the strong Arctic high behind it.

With a fresh snow pack, potential for widespread record cold is possible from the Dakotas to Colorado to New Mexico.  The cold will then be driven into west Texas where some daily low temperature records may fall.

The surface high will be in a sweet spot near Bermuda for severe weather in the Plains & Midwest.  Also, remnants of a tropical system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will be pulled northward, feeding rainfall & storms.

So, potent tropical moisture & CAPE will surge into the Plains & eventually the central Corn Belt.

Meanwhile (see below), very strong upper jet with a series of jet streaks (with very deep, cold upper trough) will race through the Plains to Midwest.

When the air parcels move through & the upper trough they will accelerate into the Plains, like a car slowing down on a curve & then accelerating or "flooring it" following the curve.  This results in the acceleration of the air parcels in the upper levels, which creates a vaccuum.  This results in strong rising air motion for storms.

Think of a fire burning in a home fireplace & the strong wind outside act to suck more smoke up through the chimney to fill the void of air.

Multiple rounds of severe storms & flooding are likely in the Plains & Midwest Friday-Monday morning.

It should begin Friday with severe risk in Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas & Missouri.  With time, risk will migrate up into Illinois & then MARGINAL RISK will likely make it up into part of our area by Saturday-Saturday night.

ENHANCED RISK-type parameters are seen in Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas to southwestern Missouri with SLIGHT parameter to as far northeast as along the Mississippi River between Missouri & Illinois.

On Sunday to Sunday night, parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK for the entire area except our northwestern counties of Benton, Newton, Jasper, Warren, which show evidence of SLIGHT RISK scenario.

Good severe parameters show up from Missouri to northern Illinois with high-end SLIGHT set-up (possibly ENHANCED).

We will monitor.

Friday-Monday morning rainfall totals look to run 1-2".  A corridor of 3-5" may develop from Oklahoma to northern Illinois.

Arctic high should spread eastward & bring widespread 20s for overnight lows October 22-24 for the area.

Meanwhile, upper low will stall in the Desert Southwest.  This, combined with tropical moisture from tropical remnants in Mexico may result in a situation of drought to flood in Texas with howlling northeast winds & highs only in the 40s.

Heavy snowfall may occur at quite low levels for the time of year in the Southwest & higher terrain of far west Texas.

In more extreme weather, we may go from 20s at night to highs in the 70s very rapidly around October 25-27 with strong southwest winds.

Note how suddenly, it is warm enough for all rain to north-central Manitoba, but there are snow showers in Utah & Colorado.

As we near Halloween, once again, very cold air will surge into the Rockies & Plains with another snowstorm potentially for Colorado.

Meanwhile, severe weather may occur Oklahoma to the Lower Ohio Valley with heavy rainfall.

Also, we will see, but a very warm Gulf may support late season tropical development there.

This moisture would tend to feed multiple rounds of rain & storms from Oklahoma to our area near Halloween to early November, while the Rockies & Plains get very cold weather & potentially heavy snowfall.

Again, it will be a nation of extreme with spring here, summer in the Southeast & middle of winter in the Plains & Rockies.

The buffer zone will be Oklahoma to Michigan.

Near Halloween to November 14 rainfall may run 1-3" over the area.

We will watch near Halloween, around November 5-6 & near November 10 for severe risk here &/or near the our area.

After mild, rainy, stormy weather in early November, it still appears the gate will be opened & the Arctic air unleashed to our area.

This will occur either as we approach the mid-point of November or at the mid-point.

This will set the tone for lots of below normal temperatures for a while mid to late November. Lows in the single digits & teens are likely.  Some highs only in the 20s to 30s are possible.

A couple very minor snows are possible, but they do not look to amount to much.  I really think we will have to wait until late December to see the widespread, substantial, shoveling snows come in.

This looks to be the pattern (see below the strong Arctic high over the area):

This is the trend for that time with below normal temperatures for all areas east of the Rockies.

This will also be a time of below normal precipitation after a wet stretch.

Many farmers will be shelling corn & cutting soybeans at this time as the ground frequently freezes solid.

Trends do support mild weather as we transition from November & into early December with below normal precipitation.

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Increasing Rain Chances this Afternoon-Early Evening.
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