Our second severe season is underway. We typically get 3 here. Spring mixed storm modes, then period of Summer squall line & derecho risk, then Fall low-instability, high shear severe weather mixed modes.
SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 of 5 or "scattered severe storms") of severe weather risk is up for 4-10 p.m. this afternoon-evening.
2-3 lines of storms will pivot through (moving southwest to northeast) with a couple severe gusts, risk of an EF0-EF1 tornado or two & an isolated severe hailer.
Instability won't be the best, but shear & helicity will make up for it as strong surface low pivots through northwestern Illinois.
Line segments mixed with a few embedded discrete supercells are expected given deep layer helicity of +200 m2/s2 & deep layer shear of up to 55 knots.
Despite lack of best instability, it support organized storm structures.
When you overlay the CAPE with the shear & helicity, the best severe storm risk is central Illinois, but we should have enough here for the scattered severe storm risk.
Tuesday is dry with sunshine & lower humidity, but still warm temperatures in the 70s (with a after some patchy fog early & lows 59-64.
50s & area of dense fog are likely Wednesday morning, followed by partly cloudy skies & 80s with a south wind.
Scattered storms are likely Wednesday night-Thursday with 80s & MARGINAL RISK for severe weather.
MARGINAL RISK is possible Friday with showers & storms, followed by a more seasonable weekend.
Some showers are possible Saturday morning, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs 57-64, followed by sun & 60-66 Sunday after morning lows 40-45.