With a clearing sky Sunday morning, then partly cloudy skies of cumulus Sunday afternoon (with veil of smoky haze), highs reached 75-84 over the viewing area with an east to southeast wind at 10-20 mph.
We officially reached 83 at Greater Lafayette (WLFI ob site thermometer just eclipsed 84). The record high for the date was 88 set in 2010.
Line of storms is on-going from Minnesota to far northern Kansas this Sunday night. Hail up to baseball size has occurred in northeastern Nebraska & winds up to 65 mph have been clocked in Minnesota.
This is the area where the cold pocket aloft is overspreading the higher moisture tongue & where the lift & shear with strong jet winds aloft are setting up.
The cold pocket aloft will move up toward Wisconsin & Michigan for Monday. Also the low-level moisture will be a bit lacking in the area. This means low amounts of CAPE or buoyancy of the air parcels. However, we still have good shear & dynamics & rainfall will fall through layer of dry air. This keeps mention of an isolated strong to severe storm (wind) tomorrow.
This band of some scattered showers will feature those storms as an embedded, narrow, fast-moving line or two. It all looks to pass in the 2 p.m. to 7 p.m. for the viewing area. As for Greater Lafayette, it looks like it will pass in the 3-5 p.m. time frame.
Given the fast movement & lack of any really good depth of low-level moisture, rainfall should run only 0.08-0.30".
Highs should run 72-78 from west to east & tend to occur just prior to the thick clouds of the front coming in (after 55-63 & some patchy fog & mostly clear skies tonight).
Temperatures should fall pretty drastically in the showers & storms to 58-62 & hover there following frontal passage.
Southwest winds 15-32 mph should sharply turn to the northwest at 15-32 mph with passage of the scattered rain & cold front.
We tank Monday night to 40-45 as skies clear with northwest wind turning to the west & southwest at 5-10 mph.
It will be hard to dress Tuesday & Wednesday due to the rather calm, chilly mornings & then the warm, sunny, windy afternoons!
Tuesday looks sunny with a rapid warm up to 72-77 in the afternoon after such a chilly morning. Winds may gust to 36 mph from the southwest with dew points dropping to the 20s & 30s (relative humidity to 17%). Even with any rainfall Monday, this will rapidly dry out mature corn & soybeans & their residue, as well as curing warm-season grasses, leading to elevated brush fire danger.
Wednesday looks chilly in the morning at 41-47, followed by 75-80 in the afternoon with bone-dry air & strong southwest winds to 36 mph.
A clipper & strong cold front pass late Thursday morning after lows only in the 48-55. A few isolated showers are possible with the frontal passage. Highs will run 58-66 with southwest winds becoming northwest at 20-40 mph.
34-39 is likely Thursday night, followed by less wind & lots of sunshine Friday, but highs only 55-61.
Lows of 29-34 are likely Friday night, followed by lots of sunshine & 55-62 Saturday.
Lows of 30-37 are likely Saturday night as the wind turns to the southwest.
It looks much warmer Sunday with temperatures surging to 65-72 with southwest winds to 40 mph & increasing clouds.
With the frontal passage Monday morning, winds should go to the northwest after a couple of isolated showers possible.
Highs Monday, October 19 should only run 56-62 once again with 30-35 Monday night.
Beyond Monday-Monday night October 19-20, it appears that a big warm-up will still ensue. Strong southwest winds will move in around October 21, pushing highs to 65-70 with lows on the morning of October 21 at 48-52.
To give you an idea of the upcoming trends:
Greater Lafayette: AM Low/PM High....Conditions:
Friday, October 16: 37/58....Sunny
Saturday, October 17: 32/59....Sunny
Sunday, October 18: 35/67....Increasing Clouds & Windy
Monday, October 19: 48/57....20% AM.....Partly Cloudy & Windy
Tuesday, October 20: 31/58....Mostly Sunny
Wednesday, October 21: 32/63....Mostly Sunny
Thursday, October 22: 45/70....Mostly Sunny & Windy
Friday, October 23: 50/76....Mostly Sunny & Windy
Saturday, October 24: 60/77....Partly Cloudy & Windy
Sunday, October 25: 57/65....30% Showers/T'Showers AM, then Partly Cloudy & Breezy
Monday, October 26: 38/64....Mostly Sunny
Tuesday, October 27: 37/68....Mostly Sunny
Wednesday, October: 28 41/68....Mostly Sunny
Thursday, October 29: 41/72....Partly Cloudy, Windy
Friday, October 30: 55/72....Mostly Cloudy, 45% Showers/Storms, Windy
Saturday, October 31: 47/56....Partly Cloudy, Windy
Sunday, November 1: 31/58....Mostly Sunny
Monday, November 2: 42/65....Increasing Clouds & Breezy
Tuesday, November 3: 56/71....50% Showers/Storms, Windy.....Isolated to Scattered Severe?
Wednesday, November 4: 45/55....30% Showers, Mostly Cloudy, Then Clearing.....Windy
Thursday, November 5: 34/60....Partly Cloudy & Breezy
Friday, November 6: 49/67....Becoming Mostly Cloudy, Windy
Saturday, November 7: 56/71....30% Showers/Storms, Mostly Cloudy, Windy
Sunday, November 8: 56/71....60% Showers/Storms, Windy.....Isolated to Scattered Severe?
Monday, November 9: 38/47....Mostly Cloudy, Windy
Tuesday, November 10: 42/62....30% Showers/Storms, Mostly Cloudy, Windy