October 10, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update: Marginal Risk, Frost/Freeze & the Weekend Outlook

There is rain area-wide now, but a lull should develop late today, followed by showers/storms with the cold front.

Posted: Oct 10, 2018 1:12 PM
Updated: Oct 10, 2018 2:07 PM

Rain has been & continues to be widespread over the viewing area.  Some of it will be locally-heavy over the next few hours with +1" totals.

Back edge of this first round of rainfall is over southeastern Illinois.  This back edge is moving northeastward.  So, a lull in the rainfall will occur for a bit later today until the second round passes in the form of a line of showers & storms with the cold front.

The cold front shows up well on a visible satellite as it approaches the Mississippi River.  Note some pockets of sunshine just ahead of it in western Illinois, eastern Missouri.....even far southern Illinois & western Kentucky.

Even though the window is very small to get sun to destabilize things here much later today, this small bit of sun, strong winds aloft & shear overspreading the area as the strong ascent with the cold front approaching means MARGINAL RISK of severe. This means isolated severe storms are possible.

The line may feature one or a couple of nodes or small bowing segments with severe risk as it passes.  The main threat would be wind.

This MARGINAL RISK would be confined to the 4:30-7:30 p.m. time frame.

If not for all of this rainfall, given forecast shear parameters, we would have a pretty robust severe weather episode today.

The worst hurricane for the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama since Opal in October 1995 is about to make landfall.  At a Category 4 with 145 mph winds, this storm is historic.

It is moving so fast that the sheer momentum of it will force a massive wall of water into the Florida Panhandle & like a car out of contral, +100 mph winds will race inland.  100 mph gusts are possible as far northeast as central Georgia due to this rapid movement.

We could see numerous tornadoes in eastern Georgia to South Carolina, North Carolina, even some in Florida.

Gusts exceeding hurricane force (75 mph) may even reach South Carolina.

Here, it is the much, much cooler weather that will be the weather story Thursday through next week & right into late October.

Widespread frost & freezing is likely Friday morning.  Lows of 29-33 are likely after highs Thursday only in the 50s with a strong northwest wind to 30 mph at times.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  This, after lows tomorrow morning at 38-45 with wind chills 33-38.

Frost & freezing is likely Saturday morning, too, after 50s Friday with sunshine.  Friday Night Frenzy looks cold with temperatures well down into the 40s to even 40 by the end of the games.  At least the wind will calm.

Saturday will see 50s, but Saturday night does not look quite as cold with wave of cloudiness coming in.  Lows should drop to 35-40.

50s will return Sunday.

The bulk of the rainfall from Hurricane Sergio remnants will stay south of our area, but it may bring showers late Sunday-Monday.

Highs Monday should only reach the 40s.

Get used to the cold!  There is no sign of significant warming to at least October 26.  Many nights will see frost & freezing & many days will run in the 40s & 50s as re-enforcing shots of cold dominate.  It does look overall dry, however.

In fact, I think a couple mornings of widespread 20s are likely next week!

Chilly to October 26...........temperatures below normal.

Warmth should build south & eastward with time in late October.

This looks to be the situation as we exit October & move right through early half of November.  Unless we see a Pacific hurricane or typhoon alter the pattern a lot, warm, drier weather should dominate.  However, note the continued unusually cold weather over developing unusually deep snow cover over western & northwestern Canada.  Cold will develop over this snow pack & move southward into southern Canada, waiting to be dislodged.

After today & any rainfall Sunday night-Monday, it is dry in late October & for a large part of the U.S.  With persistent, dry, cold northwest flow in the east & strong, warm upper ridging in the west diverting storms to Canada, there will be a lack of storminess nation-wide.

After warmth & dryness in early November, it looks wet & stormy mid-November as we transition between warm Indian summer-type weather & winter cold.  This burst of heavy rainfall should send us above normal rainfall-wise for the November 1-24 period.  I still wouldn't rule out severe risk around mid-November during this big transition.

This rain may fall over a period of a couple of days, ending farmers' fall tillage for the viewing area.

Much colder weather may arrive after November 17 with lows in the teens, highs in the 30s & the first minor snowfall of the year.

I am going earlier than normal for the first snowfall of +0.1" for the year.  I think it will be in this cold snap prior to Thanksgiving.

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