October 11, 1 AM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your now to winter update.

Posted: Oct 10, 2020 10:17 PM
Updated: Oct 10, 2020 11:24 PM

Saturday was another warm day with temperatures above to well-above normal with milky high/mid clouds & smoky, hazy skies.

Today will feature clouds/sun & smoky haze with a couple isolated showers possible (mainly in the morning & in the north parts of the viewing area).  Highs of 74-83 northeast to southwest area expected (80 at Greater Lafayette) after lows of 56-63 in the morning.  Winds will run 10-20 mph from the east to southeast.

Note how the big rains from now Tropical Depression Delta will stay well south & southeast of our area.

Cold front passes Monday PM.  A broken band of showers with an embedded broken line of some storms will occur in the afternoon.  Shear & dynamics are strong, but lack of any cold air aloft & lack of much low-level moisture will result in very weak CAPE (buoyancy).  Think of it as balloons.  The air parcels are balloons & now matter how much I force them upward, they still don't rise the best because they are only partially filled with air & that air came from me blowing them up.  So, the balloons don't rise like helium-filled balloons.  More CAPE would mean they are filled with more helium & deep, high CAPE would mean they are filled to the max.

This will keep storm risk down to only an isolated severe storm (only mentioned due to negatively-tilted system & shear & dynamics). 

Better severe risk will actually occur today from northeast Kansas to Minnesota where more cold air aloft & bit of a tongue of richer low-level moisture from southeast Texas will creep northward.

Rainfall coverage should run 45% on average with rainfall totals of 0.10-0.40" expected Monday.

Tuesday & Wednesday look breezy to windy, mostly sunny & warm with 70s (with very dry air of dew points in the 30s), but cool at night well down into the 40s.  Another front should pass Thursday with an isolated shower or two (20%) & highs in the 60s.

Cooler air will follow with patchy frost Thursday night & areas of frost possible Friday & Saturday nights as lows dip to 30-35.  Friday looks like the coolest day with highs 55-62.

We should still be rather cool Saturday, followed by windy, warm weather Sunday with 67-72.  Both days should feature lots of sunshine.

Overall late October up to mid-November continues to trend warmer than normal.  It looks drier than normal until we get deeper into November.  November may end up wetter than normal in the end.

Winter 2020-21 still looks much like this (see images below).

It looks very cold & snowy from Oregon & Washington to Montana, the Dakotas & northern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin.

The southeast U.S. looks quite warm, while our temperatures still look to trend above normal.

Temperature anomalies:

We still look above normal precipitation-wise with below normal snowfall making it more rain & ice than snow.

The Midwest & Ohio Valley feature an increase flood threat this winter with a very active storm track.  There continues to be the signature of increase risk of cool season severe weather episodes from the Mid-Mississippi to Tennessee, Ohio Valleys & parts of the Midwest.

The Cascades, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains to western Northern Great Lakes looks very snowy with above to well-above normal snowfall for the winter.

Meanwhile, California to the Southern Plains & Deep South look drier than normal with developing & worsening drought.

Precipitation anomalies:

West Lafayette
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Kokomo
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Rensselaer
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 41°
Fowler
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 41°
Williamsport
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 38°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
42° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 39°
Frankfort
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 42°
Delphi
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Monticello
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Logansport
Overcast
41° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 41°
Cool, wet evening....rain ending, but fog redeveloping.....
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