October 1, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Focusing On the Timing of Rainfall

The emphasis is put on timing of the rounds of showers & storms in this forecast update.

Posted: Oct 1, 2018 8:49 PM
Updated: Oct 2, 2018 4:23 PM

Today was a warm breezy one with highs 81-86!  Normal highs are 70-73 for October 1!  The record high for Greater Lafayette today was 92 set in 1897 during a significant late summer to fall drought.

The focus on this forecast update is timing of rainfall.

First, some spotty storms are possible tonight in the north, then tomorrow morning to afternoon for everyone else.  Coverage will average around 30-35%, so not everyone will see rainfall. 

These spotty storms are due to a cold front trying to move southward.  It will split the area into highs ar only 68 in the far northern areas tomorrow to 84 in the south & around 81 in Greater Lafayette.

Any severe risk tonight should stay north of the viewing area & any severe risk tomorrow should stay east of the viewing.

Front will work back north as a warm front no matter how hard the front's chill tries to move southward tomorrow night.  An isolated shower/storm or two is possible.

Wednesday then just looks windy, near record warm with mostly sunny skies developing.  Highs will run 84-88.  I am forecasting 87 for Greater Lafayette.  The record high is 90 set in 1922.

Note the flare up of a line of storms northwest of our area Wednesday night & a few pops developing here by midnight.  Low temperatures will run at only around 68.  The record warmest overnight low for Thursday morning is 69 set in 1954.

Front will once again try to move back south Thursday & will make some progress.  Temperatures should actually fall as the front works through. 

So, in the morning to midday, we may all warm from 67 in the north to 77 in the south, but temperatures will fall into the 60s as the front & its showers & storms move southward.

By evening, the rainfall should be south of the viewing area with just clouds & cooler 50s & 60s settling in over the area.

Severe weather is not expected.  Any of that will stay northwest of our area Wednesday to Wednesday night.

Front should move back northward Thursday night-Friday morning with a wave of showers & storms.  It looks like we will completely dry by mid to late afternoon with gusty south-southwesterly winds & warm, juicy, muggy conditions.  Highs should reach 75-83 from north to south.  This, after we fall to 55-60 from north to south Thursday night.

Friday night looks dry, breezy, warm & muggy with lows at only 66-70.  I am forecast a low of 68 Saturday morning for Greater Lafayette.  The record warmest overnight low for that date is 70 set in 1941.

Saturday may be dry until afternoon.  Gusty south-southwest winds & warm, muggy conditions with some sunshine will shoot us up into the summery 80s.  Winds may gust to 32 mph at times.

Showers & storms should develop in broken lines over the area afternoon & evening with a southwest to northeast track.  They should move pretty quickly at 40-50 given the strong low-level wind fields.

Although it is SLIGHT RISK situation west & northwest of our area Friday-Friday night, I think we look like a MARGINAL RISK situation with potential of a couple/few isolated severe storms.  These would occur as little nodes or small bows in these broken lines & line segments bubbling up over the area.

Severe parameters Friday to Saturday:

Showers & storms may continue into Saturday night & Sunday morning.  Looks like they may tend to migrate north of the viewing area by afternoon, given us dry time.  South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with temperatures warming to the 80s (with a mix of clouds & sun) & high humidity will make for summery conditions.

So................

80s, muggy, breezy to windy Friday-Sunday for the feast with 60s to 70 at night.

Preliminary showers/storms highest risk periods:

1.  Friday:  Friday morning to afternoon.

2.  Saturday:  Afternoon to evening & night

3.  Sunday:  Morning to midday

Rainfall totals Tuesday-Sunday:  1-2.50"

So, for the Feast, there will be dry time, but there will be a lot of warmth, brisk winds & there will be mud from the rainfall.  I went for an overall high-end caution because of the lightning threat from storms Friday morning to afternoon, Saturday afternoon-evening-night & Sunday morning-midday.  Isolated severe weather will be with us Saturday afternoon-evening-night.

Monday-Tuesday look windy, unusually warm & humid with only a few isolated storms.  Highs in the 80s with lows near 70 are likely.

Storms are likely Wednesday &/or Thursday.  Main severe risk will be northwest of our area, but it is not out of the question that some MARGINAL RISK may reach here.

Much cooler weather will follow!  Frost & freezing with temperatures as much as 20 degrees below normal, rather than above normal. 

Cooler pattern should stick around for nearly the rest of October.  It does look like a big warm-up to 15-20 degrees above normal by the very end of the month to early November.

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