Officially at West Lafayette, we have only had 3 overnight lows below 50 this late Summer to early Fall.
We may not have a single low below 50 until October 15.
That would mean only 4 overnight lows below 50 to the 15th.
The record LEAST number of overnight lows below 50 is 6 set in 1931 (records back to 1879).
This shows the magnitude of the warmth at night this Fall so far.
In fact, the normal first occurrence of 36 in Fall is October 1-6! Not this year!
Multiple observation sites have not even dropped below 45!
This follows the 16th warmest September on record (September 2021 in the top 11% warmest since 1879).
After lows this morning of 51-63 from northeast to southwest, highs today reached 82-88.
Change to forecast over the past 24-30 hours is the increasing likelihood that blocking ridge will set up farther west than expected days ago. It will extend a reach not just over the western & central Atlantic, but to the entire East Coast.
This will act as a walk & block & lock things up by Monday.
This will do several things for us:
1. It will tend to bottle the much colder air well northwest of our area & keep us warmer than normal, especially at night (normal lows 42-46, but 50s to 60 will occur).
2. Again, it will cause our upper low to stall in the Lower Ohio Valley, keeping a few showers & t'showers are through all of next week.
3. It will cause temperatures to tend to level off & stay in the 70s daily.
It will be a bottleneck with everything getting stuck.
Note how the upper low lugs around slowly by Monday-Thursday:
It may not move substantially east or southeast of the area until late next weekend.
This will result in 30-40% coverage of showers/t'showers bubbling next week with peak of 45% Thursday.
70s to 80 will occur area-wide with humid conditions.
Heaviest rainfall will occur south of our area, but we will have some scattered showers & t'showers bubbling every day. No big wash-outs, but we will be dodging them with their hit-or-miss nature every day.
However, let's detail this weekend (0.50-1" rainfall area-wide by Sunday night with a few amounts +1"):
Saturday (best rainfall coverage midday to mid-afternoon):
............Then again Saturday night:
Sunday (best rainfall coverage midday to mid-afternoon):
High/Low That Morning...Date, Day Conditions
There is evidence of up to SLIGHT RISK for severe weather here around October 14, but that is the only time period for severe in the September 29 to November 3 period....per analog & model analysis at the moment...
82/64...Oct. 2, Sat. Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers & Storms (45%), SSW 12-24 mph.
77/65...Oct. 3, Sun. Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers & Storms (50%), SSW 12-25 mph.
74/60...Oct. 4, Mon. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy with a Few Sct'd Showers (35%), NW 10-20 mph.
74/55...Oct. 5, Tue. Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a Few Sct'd Showers/T'Showers (30%), NE 10-20 mph.
77/55...Oct. 6, Wed. Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a Few Sct'd Showers/T'Showers (30%), ESE 10-15 mph.
78/58...Oct. 7, Thu. Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers/Storms (45%), SE 15-25 mph.
78/58...Oct. 8, Fri. Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a few Sct'd Showers/T'Showers (30%), SE 10-15 mph.
80/58...Oct. 9, Sat. Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower (20%), S 10-20 mph
82/59...Oct. 10, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower (20%), S Wind 15-30 mph.
85/65...Oct. 11, Mon. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-40 mph......Record: 86-2010
85/65...Oct. 12, Tue. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 20-30 mph.....Area of MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for severe in far southern Minnesota to Iowa & far northern Missouri & far northwestern Illinois, but not here.....Record: 87-1930
85/66...Oct. 13, Wed. Partly Cloudy & Humid, SW 20-30 mph......Area of SLIGHT RISK for severe in far southern Minnesota to Iowa & far northern Missouri & far northwestern Illinois, but not here....Record: 87-1975
85/68...Oct. 14, Thu. Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Sct'd PM Showers/Storms (45%), SW Wind 20-30 mph...SLIGHT RISK for severe in our area.....Record: 87-1897
This SLIGHT RISK area will also encompass southern Wisconsin & Illinois.
61/48...Oct. 15, Fri. Partly Cloudy, NW 15-30 mph.
63/36...Oct. 16, Sat. Mostly Sunny, N to NE 5 mph
72/38...Oct. 17, Sat. Partly Cloudy, SW Wind 15-25 mph.
80/60...Oct. 17, Sun. Partly Cloudy, Few Showers & Storms Late (30%), SW Wind 20-35 mph...Record: 86-1938
51/40...Oct. 18, Mon. Mostly Cloudy, NW Wind 20-35 mph.
55/31...Oct. 19, Tue. Mostly Sunny, NW Wind 5-10 mph.
58/30...Oct. 20, Wed. Sunny, NE Wind 5-10 mph.
63/33...Oct. 21, Thu. Sunny, S Wind 5-15 mph.
72/49...Oct. 22, Fri. Mostly Sunny, SW Wind 20-35 mph.
62/53...Oct. 23, Sat. Mostly Cloudy, NE Wind 10-15 mph.
60/36...Oct. 24, Sun. Partly Cloudy, NW 10-15 mph.
Warming back to 70s to 80 October 29-November 3 with strong southwest winds.