SEVERE WX : Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

October 19, 9:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

From 70s to rain/storms & eventually 20s.

Posted: Oct 19, 2019 9:19 PM
Updated: Oct 19, 2019 10:11 PM

Highs today ran 67-74 after 34-44 this morning.

A couple/few isolated showers are possible part of tonight followed by lows in the 40s to near 50.

Nestor is diverting moisture away from our area.

After much of the Gulf is gutted over moisture by Nestor, re-charge should happen quickly as tropical remnants from the Pacific & moisture deep in the Bay of Campeche surge northeastward.  This will occur in active subtropical jet as the next system re-organizes on the leeside of the Rockies.

Our Sunday forecast looks good!  With sunshine & some clouds, highs should run 70-76.  I cut back the wind speeds to 7-11 mph from the southeast, then south-southeast.

Severe weather blows up Sunday late to Sunday night far southern Missouri to Texas.

Tomorrow night, we shouldn't really cloud up until after midnight.  That, with lighter winds from south at 6-12 mph, I dropped lows to the 50s to near 60 rather than 60-65 as originally thought.

On a surge of warm air advection late Sunday night-early Monday morning, a few scattered elevated showers & t'showers are possible.

Then, it appears what is left of the line of storms from Missouri & Arkansas will race northeastward & move through central Indiana in the morning & exit by midday.

Here, it looks more like just rain with potential of a couple of embedded storms with the line being a bit better organized south & southeast of our area.  Severe (even isolated) looks nil from it at the moment.

Main area of severe risk early Monday will run Arkansas to western Kentucky.  Then............

..........some isolated severe risk moves up into southern Indiana in the morning to midday.

Morning line may re-intensify some over central Kentucky & far southwest Ohio for a bit Monday midday-early afternoon with heating on edge of corridor of increasing low-level moisture/CAPE.

Here, our focus is on edge of some sun that may break between the morning-midday rainfall & the cold front.

A narrow corridor of shallow CAPE with decent shear may develop a low-topped line of showers & storms along the cold front.

This would pass early to mid afternoon Monday.

An isolated severe storm or two could occur with this, but threat will be based upon how much of a wedge of sun can develop.

Data shows MARGINAL RISK parameters for us in this narrow window.

If it stays too cloudy, any isolated severe risk would decrease.

The low-topped line along the cold front:

Data shows shallow CAPE from some heating, but sheared environment with strong winds through the troposphere with a bit of a wind direction shift of about 10 degrees from 18 (south) to 28 (west-southwest) in th surface to 4500' layer.

This suggests that if we can get 350-500 J/kg of surface to ML CAPE, then an isolated, brief weak rope tornado risk may develop.

Also, bits of buoyancy may support an isolated severe gust making it to the ground given winds at only 4500' up at 50 mph & potential of 600-660 J/kg of downdraft CAPE.

Line cannot follow the morning-midday rainfall too closely, or any isolated severe threat will rapidly decrease.

Highs Monday look to run at 67-74.

Cools below normal some following front.

It gets much colder late next week to next weekend after Thursday cold front (with a few showers) ushers in the chill.

Lows in the 20s are likely.

Looks to stay pretty cold right up to Halloween.

Would surprise me to see a southeastern storm system bring widespread rainfall from Louisiana to West Virginia.

A band of higher elevation Applachian snowfall could occur, perhaps as far south as far northeast Georgia & into eastern Tennessee, then up to West Virginia & Virginia.

We may see a few showers from a clipper or two...........& yes..........a few/some flakes of snow cannot be ruled out!

It does look like quite a persistent cold weather pattern with temperatures below to well-below normal for late October.

Much warmer weather looks to burst in for the first half of November with wetter than normal pattern.

Some severe risk may evolve November 5-6 & November 13-15.

Much colder weather should dive in for latter half of November with some very minor snows.

Still going for mild early December.

Article Comments

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Icy roads tonight as temperatures approach record cold levels.
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