October 8, 9:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots of ups & downs ahead!

Posted: Oct 8, 2019 1:11 PM
Updated: Oct 8, 2019 9:44 PM

Today is the first completely clear day without a single cloud in the sky during the daylight hours since July 12.  Before that, you have to go back to March 27 for a completely clear day here at West Lafayette (WLFI).

It was the coldest morning since May 14 with lows 37-44.  A couple weather stations in Boone County (including the Indianapolis Executive Airport [Zionsville]) dropped to 36.

Highs today ran 70-75.

Potentially-historic early-season winter storm/blizzard is taking aim on the northern Plains.  I say "historic" due to potential of storm deepening to a near bomb & heavy snow, white-out conditions & high winds (with leaves still on the trees) for potentially 48 hours in eastern North Dakota as storm deepens, peaks, occludes then stalls.

Significant snowfall accumulations (especially for the time of year) are possible. 

Severe weather will break out over the western Corn Belt & southern Plains Thursday to Thursday night.  Here, just looks like some increasing clouds Wednesday with southeast breeze (72-76 after 39-46 in the morning) & clouds/sun Thursday with breezy conditions from south-southeast with 75-80 (after 50s Thursday morning). 

A couple isolated showers & sprinkles are possible Thursday.  It looks quite dry at the surface preventing better rainfall coverage.

We get the leftovers [of the storms] due to lack of good CAPE & moisture.

Nonetheless, strong wind fields through the troposphere do support a narrow line of heavy rainfall & isolated thunder along the cold front (embedded in the band of rainfall).  This may support a few isolated +45 mph gusts.  Winds at 5,000' will be running 65-75 mph, so any buoyancy could get a few isolated strong to severe gusts to the surface.

We should drop from 68-75 for highs midday to early afternoon to 40s very RAPIDLY by evening with west winds gusting to 40 mph.

MARGINAL & SLIGHT RISK is up from SPC to our west.  There are a couple of corridors in western Missouri & in west-central Oklahoma that have the best severe weather parameters setting up (ENHANCED RISK-type).

It will be windy & much colder Friday night with clearing skies & lows 34-39 with west winds gusting to 40 mph at times.  Wind chills will drop into the 20s.

Check out razor-sharp strong cold front.  This is why there may still be a narrow, low-topped heavy rain band with thunder & isolated +45 mph gusts even without much CAPE.

Talk about a sharp pressure drop/rise with sharp geopotential height drop.

A cool weekend to Monday is ahead.  Sunday will be a bit warmer, however.

Saturday looks windy, Sunday breezy & Monday less wind.

Monday will feature increasing clouds.

Note how the heat tries to move back northward quickly by early next week!  Temperatures will soar in the South & in the southern Plains, while the Northern Plains to New England will be cold.  Between northern Nebraska & far southern Kansas, temperatures may vary from 40s to 80s.

Another shot of cold comes in briefly mid next week.

Multiple nights of frost & light freezing are likely this weekend through next week.

Then, it completely flips to warmth!  70s to 80s may surge back in with lows unusually warm in the 60s near October 20-22.

With this, it will be windy from the south & severe weather is likely from Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas to Louisiana, Arkansas & Missouri. 

We will monitor to see if & how much severe risk develops here.

Right now, it looks like low risk of any severe as we recycle some drier, more stable air from the southeast. 

This could change.  We will monitor.

Much colder air will follow with widespread freezing possible by around October 24-25.

However, like before, we see a major surge in warmth late, late October to early November.  Overnight lows may run 30 degrees above normal in Iowa!  Here, our highs may run in the 70s with lows in the 50s & 60s with strong southerly winds.

Meanwhile, the West & High Plains will be unusually cold!

Significant storm system is likely near start of November.

It may bring a wind-driven snowstorm from Colorado, Wyoming to Nebraska, South & North Dakota to western Minnesota.

Meanwhile, severe weather may occur with a squall line Missouri & Iowa to Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas & Texas to Louisiana.

Strong +100-knot jet streak & screaming +55-knot low-level jet will promote the severe risk.

Here, better risk is to our west once again, but we may see MARGINAL RISK-type set-up.

We will monitor.

Now to November 8, 2.25-3.75" of total rainfall is expected here.

This includes:

0.50-1" this Friday

Trace-0.10" late next Tuesday

0.50-1" near October 23

1-1.75" near early November.

It is possible that another storm followed after this first early November one with showers/storms here.

Another storm system will also likely follow in early November, adding to the rainfall.

Note early in its development the unusually bitterly cold air in the northern Rockies & northern Plains!  However, note the massive difference to the south with very warm weather in the southern Plains & our warm southwest winds.

This system could deepen a lot & bring us rain & storms.

There will likely be another Rockies to Plains snowstorm & severe weather Missouri to Texas.  Some may sneak in here.  Magnitude is unclear, but latest analysis puts the SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK parameters west of us & us just within the MARGINAL RISK range.

These two system may dump a total of an additional 1-2" of rainfall on the area, resulting in total rainfall October 8-November 13 of 3-4.75" of rainfall for the area, making fields quite muddy.

Many farmers will need to wait until we get the ground to freeze rock hard after the mid-point of November to get much more of the corn crop in.

Some may have to even wait until more hard, hard freezing in mid to late December to finish up.

Arctic front mid- month will likely open the gate to the bitter cold from the northern Rockies & Plains with well-below normal temperatures like January & even some very minor snowfall at times right into late November.

This will bring below normal precipitation, however.

There is still a tendency for a nice warm-up to above normal temperatures as we move into December with below normal precipitation.

Latter December looks colder than normal with our first substantial snowfall occuring (a few inches) just after Christmas (per analog data 1880-2018) in similar years (with emphasis on 1970-2018).

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